Michigan Data Shows Indication Spread of Virus Beginning to Slow

The total number of COVID cases in Michigan increased to 30,023 (Chart 1), which was equivalent to 301 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 2) on April 17. Of those total COVID cases, the City of Detroit had 7,414 cases, Oakland County had 5,901 cases, Wayne County (excluding Detroit) had 5,819 cases and Macomb County had 4,145 cases (Chart 3).  The number of confirmed cases in Washtenaw, Livingston, Monroe and St. Clair counties combined totaled 1,583, with Washtenaw County accounting for 855 of those cases,  according to the most recent data from the State.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data was supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State.

In Chart 4 we see that the City of Detroit has consistently had the highest number of COVID cases per 100,000 people, which was a rate of 1,102 on April 17. Oakland County had the second highest rate at 859 cases per 100,000 people and Wayne County (excluding Detroit) had 877 cases. Macomb County had 616 COVID cases per 100,000 people. When looking at Chart 4 we also see that there were per capita increases for every county between April 16 and April 17, with Detroit having one the lowest day-to-day per capita rate increases at 5; Macomb County’s per capita rate increased by 23, Oakland’s by 18 and Wayne County’s by 30.

Chart 5 shows that decreases in the number of new daily COVID cases continued through April 17 for all counties in Southeastern Michigan and Detroit. Detroit reported 32 new COVID cases on April 17; we do speculate this might be an error in reporting though because the City hasn’t reported that few of new cases since prior to March 19. Great, if it is the case. On April 17, Wayne County reported 200 new cases, Oakland County reported 123 and Macomb County reported 153. Washtenaw County had the fifth highest number in the region at 28 new cases.

When looking at new COVID cases on a per capita basis, the data shows a steep decline for Detroit on April 17 and this is directly related to the low number of new cases reported (Chart 5). According to the data, Detroit had a rate of 5 new COVID cases per 100,000 people on April 17- a steep decline from the days and weeks prior. Macomb and Wayne counties had the highest rates at 18 and 19, respectively (Chart 6).  In Oakland County, the number of new COVID cases per 100,000 people has continued to decline.

In addition to the raw data of confirmed cases, we also show the percent change in the number of cases reported day-to-day. On April 17 the percent change from April 16 was 2.6 percent, an decrease from the day’s prior change of 4 percent.

It was reported by the State of Michigan that on April 17 the total of COVID-19 deaths reached 2,227. This was a 6 percent change from April 17, which was a decrease from of the 9 percent change the day prior (Chart 9). The 2,227 total deaths reported for April 17 was 134 deaths higher than what was reported on April 16 (Chart 10); this was however a decrease in the number of daily deaths (172) reported on April 16.

Of the total deaths reported, the number of COVID deaths in Detroit increased by 36 from the day prior. On April 17 there had been a total of 582 COVID deaths (Chart 11). Also on April 17, the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services also reported 462 total deaths in Wayne County (excluding Detroit), 442 in Oakland County and 373 in Macomb County. Washtenaw County had 22 deaths (Chart 11). 

On a per capita basis, per 100,000 people, Detroit also continues to have the highest number of deaths per 100,000 people at 87 on April 17 (Chart 12). Wayne County had 69 COVID deaths per 100,000 people, Oakland County had 66 and Macomb County had 55.

Livingston, Monroe, St. Clair and Washtenaw counties reported no new COVID deaths on April 17 while Detroit reported 36, Macomb County reported 19, Oakland County reported 22 and Wayne County reported 27. Every county (except Wayne County) and Detroit reported a decline in the number of new daily COVID deaths on April 17. Detroit experienced the sharpest decline; the City reported 71 new deaths on April 16 and 36 on April 17. Wayne County reported 27 new deaths on April 17 and 26 on April 16. See Chart 13.

The data from April 17 shows indications that the spread is slowing; likely in large part to social distancing per the Stay at Home Order. Oakland County appears to have had the most consistent decline in the number of new cases while Macomb County has had the most consistent decline in the number of new deaths. However, Macomb County has had higher single day COVID death numbers than Oakland County.

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