Michigan Not Immune to Large Scale Increases in COVID Daily COVID Numbers

Michigan, like many states throughout the U.S., continues to see new confirmed daily COVID case numbers that are higher than what was reported less than a month ago. On July 16, the State of Michigan reported 71,842 total COVID cases, an increase of 645 cases from the day prior. In terms of the number of new daily cases, the 645 reported on July 16 was a decrease from the 891 new cases reported on July 15. Also, of the 645 new COVID cases, 324 were documented in Southeastern Michigan. In total, 50 percent of the new COVID cases were in Southeastern Michigan. Up until the last few days, in recent weeks majority of the new case numbers in Michigan were occurring outside of Metro-Detroit region. In Chart 1 we show that the State total for the number of COVID cases on July 14 was 70,481–a five-day rolling average. The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report. A closer look at Chart 1 shows how the once flattened curve has been increasing at a higher rate since late June, with case numbers now about 70,000.

Chart 2 shows that, based on the five-day rolling averages, the growth of new COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan continues to increase, with noticeable upticks particularly in Wayne and Oakland counties. On July 14 Wayne County reported 11,323 confirmed COVID cases and Oakland County reported 10,063. Between June 24 (when new case numbers began to rise again) and July 14 Wayne County reported 1,260 new cases and Oakland County reported 1,043 new cases. On July 14, Detroit, which still has the highest total number of confirmed COVID cases, reported 11,461 cases. However, since June 24 Detroit has reported about half of the new number of COVID cases that Wayne County has. Between June 24 and July 14 Detroit reported 584 new cases. On July 14 Macomb County reported 7,784, an increase of 753 new cases since June 24.

As noted, new daily COVID case numbers have been increasing at a faster rate in July than in June. The two five-day rolling average charts below (Chart 3 and Chart 3.1) show that up through early June daily COVID case numbers were declining, but since about June 24 those numbers have been on the rise. A little over a week ago is when daily case numbers really began to spike. However, on July 14 there was a decline from the number of new daily cases reported by the State from the days prior; this is on trend with the fact that the State of Michigan had a lower number of new COVID cases than the previous day. Oakland County had the highest number of new daily cases on July 14 at 50, with Wayne County following at 37. Detroit reported 22 new cases and Macomb County reported 25 new cases.

While the number of new daily COVID cases has been experiencing an overall increase over the last few weeks, the cumulative number of COVID deaths has remained low and fairly stagnant. The State reported on July 16 there was a cumulative total of 6,101 COVID deaths, an increase of 16 deaths from the day prior. Of those 16 deaths, 13 were added to the daily count as a result of death certificates being compared with the State’s COVID database. Additionally, of those 16 total deaths, 12 were reported out of Southeastern Michigan.

In Chart 4, the five-day rolling average for the number of deaths in Michigan, shows the number of deaths in the State of Michigan continued to slowly inch toward 6,081.

Chart 5 (a 5-day rolling average) further hones in on how majority of the COVID deaths in Michigan have occurred, and continue to occur, in Southeastern Michigan. On July 14, the City of Detroit reported 1,459 deaths. Wayne County had the second highest total at 1,185 deaths on July 14.

Chart 6, the five day rolling average of deaths, shows the number of new statewide deaths was reported at 5 on July 14. Furthermore, Chart 7 and Chart 7.1 shows how the number of deaths in Southeastern Michigan continues to remain low, with a noticeable decrease beginning to occur on June 15. Chart 10.1 shows a more in-depth look at the number of new daily COVID deaths in the last month so viewers can better discern where in the Southeastern Michigan the numbers are increasing, decreasing or remaining the same. Detroit, Macomb, Oakland and Wayne counties each reported 1 new death on July 14; these were the only new deaths reported in the region. As Chart 10.1 highlights, no more than 7 new daily deaths have been reported since June 1 and those numbers have not reached above 3 since July 7. Due to Detroit and Wayne County reporting the same numbers on some dates it may appear that the Detroit line does not go all the through, however this is just due to the fact that the Wayne County data points are the same.

Michigan has not been immune to the national trend of confirmed daily COVID case increases. With new daily numbers hovering above 400, and beyond, for the last week we have seen Gov. Gretchen Whitmer roll back on her re-opening plan and institute a public face mask mandate to help ensure residents’ safety and a decline in the spread of the virus. However, neither can be ensured if the public doesn’t adhere to the laws and standards set forth by local, state and federal government agencies.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *