Michigan COVID Numbers Nearly Double from Saturday to Sunday

According to the State of Michigan, the total number of COVID cases in Michigan rose to 56,621 on May 31, an increase of 513 cases from the previous day and a total increase of 776 cases over the weekend. The daily total was equivalent to 574 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 4). Of those 513 cases 320 were documented in Southeastern Michigan, showing that local cases totaled more than half of the new cases documented in the State on Sunday. In Chart 1 we show that the State total for the number of COVID cases on May 29 was 56,505–a five-day rolling average. The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report.

Chart 2 shows that, based on the five-day rolling averages, the growth of new COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan continued to level off for the counties in the region, but case numbers are growing faster in Detroit and Wayne County than their local counterparts. On May 29 the number of cases in Detroit reached 10,936, the highest in the region, and Wayne County reported the second highest number of cases at 9,254. On May 29, the five-day rolling average for the number of COVID cases in Oakland County was 8,313, and Macomb County reported 6,616.

The City of Detroit had 1,641 COVID cases per 100,000 people on May 31, an increase from 1,626 the day before (Chart 3). This is based upon a reported increase of 104 new COVID cases, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 11,041. Wayne County reported 871 cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County had 668 cases per 100,000 people. These per capita rates were based upon 9,374 total cases for Wayne and for 8,396 Oakland. Macomb County reported 771 cases per 100,000 people, which is based upon 6,695 cases.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State. Additionally, the case totals do not reflect the number of people who have recovered, just those who have been infected.

Chart 4 shows that Wayne County, among the units covered here, reported the highest number of daily cases at 53 on May 29, an increase from 46 new cases reported the day prior. Detroit reported 45 new cases on May 29. The numbers reported in this chart reflect a five-day rolling average.

On May 31 the per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people was 5 for the State, which was equivalent to 513 new cases. The State’s May 31 per capita rate was an increase from the day prior; the number of new cases in the State reported between May 30 and May 31 nearly doubled. The City of Detroit’s rate also increased quite dramatically. On May 30 Detroit reported 1 new COVID case per 100,000 people and on May 31 it reported a rate of 15. Detroit’s increased rate was equivalent to 104 new cases (See Chart 5). Wayne County reported 5 new COVID cases per 100,000 people, which was equivalent to 52 new cases. Oakland County reported a per capita rate of 1 new case per 100,000 people on May 31, which was equivalent to 1 new case, and Macomb County reported a rate of 8, which was also equivalent to 71 new cases. Overall, 320 new COVID cases were reported in Southeastern Michigan on May 31. This is an increase of 264 from the day prior.

In Chart 6, the five-day rolling average for the number of deaths in Michigan shows a continuing slow increase (a lagged number of 5,413 deaths, an increase of 55 deaths). The actual reported COVID-19 deaths on May 31 was 5,491, an increase of 28 deaths from the day prior. Of those 28 deaths Southeastern Michigan accounted for 22 of them.

Chart 7 (a 5-day rolling average) portrays how Detroit continues to report the highest cumulative number of deaths at 1,360 on May 29. Wayne County had the second highest total at 1,071 on May 29.

Chart 8 portrays the total number of COVID deaths per 100,000 people on May 31. The cumulative total of COVID deaths per 100,000 people in Detroit was 204 (representing 1,374 deaths). In Wayne County there were 101 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (1,069 total deaths). In Oakland County there were 79 deaths per 100,000 people (988 total deaths) and in Macomb County there were 93 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (810 total). Macomb County had the highest single day death count in Southeastern Michigan on May 31; 8 COVID deaths were reported. The State of Michigan had 54 COVID deaths per 100,000 people, which was equal to 5,491 total deaths.

Chart 9, the five day rolling average of deaths,  shows the number of new statewide deaths remained at 45 for both May 28 and May 29, showing a stabilization in the number of deaths across the state. However, Chart 10 shows how the number of deaths in Southeastern Michigan have been increasing in recent days. Detroit reported 10 daily COVID deaths and Wayne County reported 9 on May 29. Detroit  had the highest number of new daily deaths reported in the region. On May 29, of the 45 new statewide deaths reported, 34 were reported out of Southeastern Michigan (based on the 5 day rolling averages). When comparing both Charts 9 and 10 we see that while overall the number of deaths statewide has decreased, and stabilized, Southeastern Michigan does account for majority of the deaths and small increases have been occurring locally, but not enough to have a large impact on the five-day rolling averages.

On May 31 Detroit reported a fatality rate of 12.4 percent, which has been a trend for several days now. The fatality rate in Macomb County increased to 12.1 percent, and the State continued to report a fatality rate of 9.6 percent for 13 days in a row.

One reason we may be seeing such high fatality rates in Michigan is due to the low testing rates. When only having-presumably-a lower of number confirmed COVID cases than is actually likely due to the limited availability of tests, the fatality rate appears higher because the base comparison is smaller than it might be.

On May 31 the number of new COVID cases in Michigan nearly doubled from the day prior, with Detroit having the highest number of new cases at 104. We do know that reporting of COVID data over the weekends can sometimes reflect lower numbers or delayed reporting from the local communities. We will continue to watch the number of new cases in the coming week to see if numbers decline, as they had been, or increase as reported on Sunday.

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