COVID Case, Death Decline Doesn’t Mean We’re Out of the Woods Yet

According to the State of Michigan, the total number of COVID cases in Michigan rose to 53,913 on May 22, an increase of 403 cases from the previous day. This total was equivalent to 540 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 4). Of those 403 cases 123 were documented in Southeastern Michigan. This means that of the new daily COVID cases Southeastern Michigan accounted for 31 percent of them, highlighting how most of the new cases continue to occur outside of the region. The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report.

Chart 2 shows that, based on the five-day rolling averages, the growth of new COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan continued to level off for the counties in region. The flattening of the COVID growth curves in Southeastern Michigan also further supports how the increase of COVID cases is slowing in the region, with cases outside the region now making up majority of the new daily COVID cases. On May 20 the number of cases in Detroit reached 10,486, the highest in the region, and Wayne County reported the second highest number of cases at 8,913. On May 20, the five-day rolling average for the number of COVID cases in Oakland County was 8,100, and Macomb County reported 6,396.

The City of Detroit had 1,574 COVID cases per 100,000 people on May 22, an increase from 1,570 the day before (Chart 3). This is based upon a reported increase of 29 new COVID cases, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 10,587. Wayne County reported 837 cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County had 647 cases per 100,000 people. These per capita rates were based upon 9,015 total cases for Wayne and 8,131 for Oakland. Macomb County reported 737 cases per 100,000 people, which is based upon 6,445 cases.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State. Additionally, the case totals do not reflect the number of people who have recovered, just those who have been infected.

Chart 4 shows that Wayne County reported the highest number of daily cases at 60 on May 20, an increase of 2 daily cases from the day prior when it also had the highest number of daily cases. Though Wayne County increased,  this chart shows that daily case numbers throughout Southeastern Michigan continue to decline.

On May 22 the per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people was 4 for the State; this was equivalent to 403 new cases. The number of new cases the State reported on May 22 was a decrease from the day before for the second day in a row. Monroe County was the only government entity in the region to report a higher per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people than the State. On May 22 Monroe County reported a per capita rate of 9 new COVID cases per 100,000 people, which was equivalent to 13 new cases. Detroit reported the same per capita rate as the State at 4 new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people; this was equivalent to 29 new cases. Wayne County reported 3 new COVID cases per 100,000, which was equivalent to 35 new cases. Oakland County reported a per capita rate of 0.4 new case per 100,000 people, which was equivalent to 6 new cases, and Macomb County reported a rate of 3, which was also equivalent to 25 new cases. Overall, 123 new COVID cases were reported in Southeastern Michigan on May 22. This is a decrease in the total number of daily COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan from the day prior. Wayne County (including Detroit data) had 64 new COVID cases on May 22 while Kent County had an increase of 86 new cases.

In Chart 6, the five-day rolling average for the number of deaths in Michigan shows a continuing slow increase (a lagged number of 5,056 deaths, an increase of 53 deaths). The actual reported COVID-19 on May 22 was 5,158, an increase of 29 deaths from the day prior. Of those 29 additional deaths Southeastern Michigan accounted for 16 of them.

Chart 7 (a 5-day rolling average) portrays how the total number of COVID deaths in Southeastern Michigan continues to flatten, with Detroit reporting the highest cumulative number of deaths at 1,282 on May 20. Wayne County had the second highest total at 1002 on May 20.

Chart 8 portrays the total number of COVID deaths per 100,000 people on May 22, and only the per capita rates for the State and Monroe County increased, while the other per capita rates in Southeastern Michigan remained the same. The State of Michigan had 52 COVID deaths per 100,000 people, which was equal to 5,158 total deaths. In Monroe County the per capita rate rose to 12, which represents 19 total deaths. The cumulative total of COVID deaths per 100,000 people in Detroit was 193 (representing 1,299 deaths). In Wayne County there were 95 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (1,024 total deaths), in Oakland County there were 75 deaths per 100,000 people (945 total deaths), and in Macomb County there were 88 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (776 total). Wayne County had the highest single day death count in Southeastern Michigan on May 22; 6 COVID deaths were reported. No new deaths were reported in Livingston, Oakland and St. Clair counties.

Chart 9, the five day rolling average of deaths,  shows the number of new statewide deaths increased for the fourth day in a row. On May 20 the State reported 53 COVID deaths. Chart 10 shows how the number of deaths in Southeastern Michigan, except in Wayne County, have been either leveling off or decreasing. In Wayne County reported that cumulative deaths were 1,002 deaths an increase of 13 from the day prior. On May 20, Wayne County had the highest number of daily COVID deaths in the region. Detroit reported 9 daily COVID deaths, which was an increase of one from the day prior, further confirming that the number of deaths, at least in areas of Southeastern Michigan, are remaining stable and much lower than in previous weeks. On May 20, of the 53 new deaths reported 37 were reported out of Southeastern Michigan. These numbers are based on 5-day rolling averages.

On May 22 Detroit continued to report a fatality rate of 12.2 percent, showing while it is the highest rate in the region it has leveled off. The fatality rate in Macomb County remained at 12 percent, and the State continued to report a fatality rate of 9.6 percent.

One reason we may be seeing such high fatality rates in Michigan is due to the low testing rates. When only having-presumably-a lower of number confirmed COVID cases than is actually likely due to the limited availability of tests, the fatality rate appears higher because the base comparison is smaller than it might be.

The data from May 22 shows that the number of deaths in Southeastern Michigan continues to decline, as do the number of new COVID cases. This is something Gov. Gretchen Whitmer also confirmed in her Friday press conference when she extended the Stay-at-Home order through June 12. She acknowledged the growth of new cases and deaths are on the decline, but said we, as a State, are “not out of the woods yet.”

Majority of Michigan COVID Deaths Reported Out of Southeastern Michigan

According to the State of Michigan, the total number of COVID cases in Michigan rose to 53,510 on May 21, an increase of 501 cases from the previous day. This total was equivalent to 536 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 4). Of those 501 cases 155 were documented in Southeastern Michigan. This means that of the new daily COVID cases Southeastern Michigan accounted for 31 percent of them, highlighting how most of the new cases continue to occur outside of the region. The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report. While the curve is smooth, Chart 1 shows that number of cases in Michigan continues to increase, largely due to new cases reported outside of Southeastern Michigan.

Chart 2 shows that, based on the five-day rolling averages, the growth of new COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan continued to level off for the counties in region. The flattening of the COVID growth curves in Southeastern Michigan also further supports how the increase of COVID cases is slowing in the region, with cases outside the region now making up majority of the new daily COVID cases. On May 19 the number of cases in Detroit reached 10,438, the highest in the region, and Wayne County reported the second highest number of cases at 8,853. On May 19, the five-day rolling average for the number of COVID cases in Oakland County was 8,083, and Macomb County reported 6,376.

The City of Detroit had 1,570 COVID cases per 100,000 people on May 21, an increase from 1,561 the day before (Chart 3). This is based upon a reported increase of 59 new COVID cases, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 10,558. Wayne County reported 834 cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County had 646 cases per 100,000 people. These per capita rates were based upon 8,980 total cases for Wayne and 8,125 for Oakland. Macomb County reported 735 cases per 100,000 people, which is based upon 6,420 cases.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State. Additionally, the case totals do not reflect the number of people who have recovered, just those who have been infected.

Chart 4 shows that Wayne County reported the highest number of daily cases at 58 on May 19, an increase of 2 daily cases from the day prior when it also had the highest number of daily cases. Overall, this chart shows that daily case numbers throughout Southeastern Michigan continues to decline, despite new daily COVID cases numbers at the State remaining above 500 total.

On May 21 the per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people was 5 for the State; this was equivalent to 501 new cases. The number of new cases the State reported on May 21 was a decrease from the day before, but new daily numbers have only dropped below 500 once in the last week. Detroit was the only government entity in the region to report a higher per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people than the State. On May 21 Detroit reported a per capita rate of 9 new COVID cases per 100,000 people, which was equivalent to 59 new cases. The number of daily cases in Detroit did decline from the day before. Wayne County reported 4 new COVID cases per 100,000, which was equivalent to 47 new cases. Oakland County reported a per capita rate of 1 new case per 100,000 people on May 21, which was equivalent to 8 new cases, and Macomb County reported a rate of 3, which was also equivalent to 28 new cases. Overall, 155 new COVID cases were reported in Southeastern Michigan on May 21. This is a decrease in the total number of daily COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan from the day prior, and it confirms that the majority of the new COVID cases are being reported outside of the region. Wayne County (including Detroit data) had a daily increase of 106 COVID cases on May 21 while Kent County had an increase of 109 new cases.

In Chart 6, the five-day rolling average for the number of deaths in Michigan shows a continuing slow increase (a lagged number of 5,002 deaths, an increase of 50 deaths). The actual reported COVID-19 on May 21 was 5,129, an increase of 69 deaths from the day prior. Of those 69 additional deaths, 31 were added to the May 21 total as result of death certificates being compared to the COVID database. Additionally, of those 69 deaths Southeastern Michigan accounted for 53 of them.

Chart 7 (a 5-day rolling average) portrays how the total number of COVID deaths in Southeastern Michigan continues to flatten, with Detroit reporting the highest cumulative number of deaths at 1,273 on May 19. Wayne County had the second highest total at 989 on May 19.

Chart 8 portrays the total number of COVID deaths per 100,000 people and as of May 21, the cumulative total of COVID deaths per 100,000 people in Detroit was 193 (representing 1,295 deaths). In Wayne County there were 95 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (1,018 total deaths), in Oakland County there were 75 deaths per 100,000 people (945 total deaths), and in Macomb County there were 88 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (772total). The State of Michigan had 51 COVID deaths per 100,000 people, which was equal to 5,129 total deaths. Detroit had the highest single day death count in Southeastern Michigan on May 21; 15 COVID deaths were reported.

In Chart 9 we see that the number of daily statewide deaths increased for the third day in a row. On May 19 the State reported 50 COVID deaths. Chart 10 shows how the number of deaths in Southeastern Michigan, except in Wayne County, have been either leveling off or decreasing. In Wayne County there was a reported 989 deaths, which was an increase of 12 from the day prior. On May 19, 12 COVID deaths were reported in Wayne County, making it the highest number of daily COVID deaths in the region. For the fifth day in a row Detroit reported 8 daily COVID deaths, further confirming that the number of deaths, at least in areas of Southeastern Michigan, are remaining stable and much lower than in previous weeks. On May 19, of the 69 new deaths reported 36 were reported out of Southeastern Michigan. These numbers are based on 5-day rolling averages.

On May 21 Detroit continued to report a fatality rate of 12.2 percent, showing while it is the highest rate in the region it has leveled off. The fatality rate in Macomb County hit 12 percent for the fist time on May 21 and the State continued to report a fatality rate of 9.6 percent.

One reason we may be seeing such high fatality rates in Michigan is due to the low testing rates. When only having-presumably-a lower of number confirmed COVID cases than is actually likely due to the limited availability of tests, the fatality rate appears higher because the base comparison is smaller than it might be.

While the majority of new daily COVID cases are now being reported outside of Southeastern Michigan, our region still makes up majority of the daily COVID deaths. These numbers have dropped significantly from a month ago, but they are still concerning. Southeastern Michigan does have the largest population in the State though, and is home to several areas that have been disproportionately affected due to population density and other socioeconomic reasons. 

COVID Cases Numbers in Michigan Growing Faster than those in Southeastern Michigan

According to the State of Michigan, the total number of COVID cases in Michigan rose to 53,009 on May 20, an increase of 659 cases from the previous day. This total was equivalent to 530 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 4). Of those 659 cases 227 were documented in Southeastern Michigan. This means that of the new daily COVID cases Southeastern Michigan accounted for 34 percent of them, highlighting how now most of the new cases are occurring outside of the region. The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report. While the curve is smooth, Chart 1 shows that number of cases in Michigan continues to increase, and at higher rates in recent days due to varying factors. The total number of State cases increased by 1.13 percent yesterday, while they only increased by 0.8 percent the day before. Additionally, in Detroit cases increased by 0.8 percent and in Wayne County they increased by 0. 7percent on May 20, further showing that the overall number of cases in the state is growing faster than those regionally.

Chart 2 shows that, based on the five-day rolling averages, the growth of new COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan has begun to level off for the counties in region. The flattening of the COVID growth curves in Southeastern Michigan also further supports how the increase of COVID cases is slowing in the region, despite the State experiencing a higher growth rate. On May 18 the number of cases in Detroit reached 10,392, the highest in the region, and Wayne County reported the second highest number of cases at 8,795. On May 18, the five-day rolling average for the number of COVID cases in Oakland County was 8,062, and Macomb County reported 6,353.

The City of Detroit had 1,561 COVID cases per 100,000 people on May 20, an increase from 1,549 the day before (Chart 3). This is based upon a reported increase of 82 new COVID cases, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 10,499. Wayne County reported 830 cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County had 645 cases per 100,000 people. These per capita rates were based upon 8,933 total cases for Wayne and 8,117 for Oakland. Macomb County reported 731 cases per 100,000 people, which is based upon 6,392 cases. While the increase in daily case numbers has slowed in Southeastern Michigan overall, the number of new COVID cases in the region on May 20 was the highest it has been in about a week.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State. Additionally, the case totals do not reflect the number of people who have recovered, just those who have been infected.

Chart 4 shows that Wayne County reported the highest number of daily cases at 56 on May 18, a small increase from the day prior when it also had the highest number of daily cases. Overall, this chart shows that daily case numbers throughout Southeastern Michigan continues to decline, despite State numbers experiencing spikes in recent days, including yesterday.

On May 20 the per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people was 6.6 for the State; this was equivalent to 659 new cases. The number of new cases the State reported on May 20 was an increase of an additional 224 COVID cases from the day before. Detroit was the only government entity in the region to report a higher per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people than the State. On May 20 Detroit reported a per capita rate of 12 new COVID cases per 100,000 people, which was equivalent to 82 new cases. Wayne County reported 5 new COVID cases per 100,000, which was equivalent to 58 new cases. Oakland County reported a per capita rate of 3 new case per 100,000 people on May 20, which was equivalent to 39 new cases, and Macomb County reported a rate of 3, which was also equivalent to 25 new cases. Overall, 227 new COVID cases were reported in Southeastern Michigan on May 20. This is an increase in the total number of daily COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan from the day prior, but still shows that majority of the new COVID cases are being reported outside of the region. Wayne County (including Detroit data) saw the largest increase in cases Wednesday (140), followed by Kent County (102), and Ottawa County (40).

In Chart 6, the five-day rolling average for the number of deaths in Michigan shows a continuing slow increase (a lagged number of 4,952 deaths, an increase of 47 deaths). The actual reported COVID-19 on May 20 was 5,060, an increase of 43 deaths from the day prior. Of those 43 additional deaths Southeastern Michigan accounted for 28 of them.

Chart 7 (a 5-day rolling average) portrays how the total number of COVID deaths in Southeastern Michigan continues to level off, with Detroit reporting the highest cumulative number of deaths at 1,265 on May 18. Wayne County had the second highest total at 977 on May 18.

Chart 8 portrays the total number of COVID deaths per 100,000 people, and the majority of governmental units did not show an increase from the day before. As of May 20, the cumulative total of COVID deaths per 100,000 people in Detroit was 190 (representing 1,280 deaths). In Wayne County there were 93 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (1,004 total deaths), in Oakland County there were 74 deaths per 100,000 people (935 total deaths), and in Macomb County there were 87 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (763 total). The State of Michigan had 51 COVID deaths per 100,000 people, which was equal to 5,060 total deaths. Macomb County had the highest single day death count in Southeastern Michigan on May 20; 20 COVID deaths were reported. Macomb and St. Clair counties were the only two counties in the region to experience a per capita rate increase.

In Chart 9 we see that the number of daily statewide deaths increased slightly to 47 on May 18; it was reported to be 46 the day prior. Chart 10 shows how the number of deaths in Southeastern Michigan, except in Macomb County, have been either leveling off or decreasing. In Macomb County there was a reported 747 deaths, which was an increase of 7 from the day prior. On May 17, 5 COVID deaths were reported in Macomb County. Wayne County though reported the highest number of daily deaths at 10, the same number it reported the day prior. Detroit and Oakland County each reported 8 daily COVID deaths for the fourth day in a row.  This truly shows how the number of deaths in Southeastern Michigan are stabilizing at much lower levels than what they were reported at a month ago. On May 18, of the 47 new deaths reported 34 were reported out of Southeastern Michigan. These numbers are based on 5-day rolling averages.

On May 20 Detroit continued to report a fatality rate of 12.2 percent, showing while it is the highest rate in the region it has leveled off. Macomb County has the second highest fatality rate in the region at 11.9 percent, and the State reported a fatality rate of 9.6 percent.

One reason we may be seeing such high fatality rates in Michigan is due to the low testing rates. When only having-presumably-a lower of number confirmed COVID cases than is actually likely due to the limited availability of tests, the fatality rate appears higher because the base comparison is smaller than it might be.

As the daily case and death numbers in Southeastern Michigan decline and begin to stabilize, we must still be aware that case numbers are increasing in other areas of the State. Due to the nature of the virus, this means that a second wave of infection could easily be felt locally. However, in Southeastern Michigan the steps taken to prevent increased spread have been showing signs of working.

State’s Per Capita New COVID Case Rate Surpasses Detroit

According to the State of Michigan, the total number of COVID cases in Michigan rose to 51,915 on May 18, an increase of 773 cases from the previous day. This total was equivalent to 520 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 4). Of those 773 cases the State reported, 513 were tacked onto the daily total as a result of increased testing in Michigan correctional facilities. Furthermore, of those 773 cases 94 were documented in Southeastern Michigan. The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report. While the curve is smooth, Chart 1 shows that number of cases in Michigan continues to increase, and at higher rates in recent days. However, as noted, at least part of the reason behind the increased rate of growth is due to increased testing, including in Michigan correctional facilities.

Chart 2 shows that, based on the five-day rolling averages, the growth of new COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan did not increase as fast as Michigan as a whole. Even though the growth rate has declined in Southeastern Michigan the number of cumulative COVID cases remained the highest in Detroit, reaching 10,278 on May 16, with Wayne County following at a reported 8,685 cases. On May 16, the five-day rolling average for the number of COVID cases in Oakland County was 8,012, and Macomb County reported 6,302.

The City of Detroit had 1,541 COVID cases per 100,000 people on May 18, a small increase from 1,538 the day before (Chart 3). This is based upon a reported increase of 20 new COVID cases, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 10,368. Wayne County reported 814 cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County had 640 cases per 100,000 people (the same as it did the day prior). These per capita rates were based upon 8,760 total cases for Wayne and 8,050 for Oakland. Macomb County reported 726 cases per 100,000 people, which is based upon 6,357 cases. As noted earlier, the per capita rates for new COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan did not increase much from the day prior because the majority of new COVID cases reported on May 18 came from Michigan correctional facilities.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State. Additionally, the case totals do not reflect the number of people who have recovered, just those who have been infected.

According to the State of Michigan, the total number of COVID cases in Michigan rose to 51,915 on May 18, an increase of 773 cases from the previous day. This total was equivalent to 520 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 4). Of those 773 cases the State reported, 513 were tacked onto the daily total as a result of increased testing in Michigan correctional facilities. Furthermore, of those 773 cases 94 were documented in Southeastern Michigan. The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report. While the curve is smooth, Chart 1 shows that number of cases in Michigan continues to increase, and at higher rates in recent days. However, as noted, at least part of the reason behind the increased rate of growth is due to increased testing, including in Michigan correctional facilities.

Chart 2 shows that, based on the five-day rolling averages, the growth of new COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan did not increase as fast as Michigan as a whole. Even though the growth rate has declined in Southeastern Michigan the number of cumulative COVID cases remained the highest in Detroit, reaching 10,278 on May 16, with Wayne County following at a reported 8,685 cases. On May 16, the five-day rolling average for the number of COVID cases in Oakland County was 8,012, and Macomb County reported 6,302.

The City of Detroit had 1,541 COVID cases per 100,000 people on May 18, a small increase from 1,538 the day before (Chart 3). This is based upon a reported increase of 20 new COVID cases, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 10,368. Wayne County reported 814 cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County had 640 cases per 100,000 people (the same as it did the day prior). These per capita rates were based upon 8,760 total cases for Wayne and 8,050 for Oakland. Macomb County reported 726 cases per 100,000 people, which is based upon 6,357 cases. As noted earlier, the per capita rates for new COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan did not increase much from the day prior because the majority of new COVID cases reported on May 18 came from Michigan correctional facilities.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State. Additionally, the case totals do not reflect the number of people who have recovered, just those who have been infected.

In Chart 6, the five-day rolling average for the number of deaths in Michigan shows a continuing slow increase (a lagged number of 4,860 deaths, an increase of 40 deaths). The actual reported COVID-19 deaths reached 4,915 on May 18, an increase of 24 deaths from the day prior. Of those 24 additional deaths Southeastern Michigan accounted for 15 of them.

Chart 7 (a 5-day rolling average) portrays how the total number of COVID deaths in Southeastern Michigan continues to level off, with Detroit reporting the highest cumulative number of deaths at 1,249 on May 16. Wayne County had the second highest total at 956 on May 16.

Chart 8 portrays the total number of COVID deaths per 100,000 people, all of which remained the same for  the State, Detroit and the seven counties in Southeastern Michigan from May 17 to May 18. As of May 18, the cumulative total of COVID deaths per 100,000 people in Detroit was 187 (representing 1,260 deaths). In Wayne County there were 89 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (966 total deaths), in Oakland County there were 73 deaths per 100,000 people (913 total deaths), and in Macomb County there were 85 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (740 total). The State of Michigan had 49 COVID deaths per 100,000 people. Wayne County had the highest single day death count in Southeastern Michigan on May 18; 8 COVID deaths were reported.

In Chart 9 we see that the number of daily statewide deaths decreased slightly to 40 on May 16. Chart 10 shows how the number of deaths in Southeastern Michigan has been decreasing, however the region still makes up majority of the deaths in the State. On May 16, of the 40 new deaths reported 29 were reported out of Southeastern Michigan. Detroit and Oakland County each reported 8 daily COVID deaths, both of which reported the same number of deaths the day prior. Both Oakland County and Detroit also reported the highest number of daily deaths on May 16, as they did the day before. These numbers are based on 5-day rolling averages.

The fatality rate chart below shows that the rates in Southeastern Michigan and across the State are starting to level off. On May 18 Detroit reported a fatality rate of 12.2 percent. Detroit has been reporting a fatality rate between 12-12.2 percent since May 10. The State reported a fatality rate of 9.5 percent; the last time this rate was reported was May 7.

One reason we may be seeing such high fatality rates in Michigan is due to the low testing rates. When only having-presumably-a lower of number confirmed COVID cases than is actually likely due to the limited availability of tests, the fatality rate appears higher because the base comparison is smaller than it might be.

The number of average daily COVID deaths in Michigan continues to decline, but we once again saw a spike in the number of new COVID cases. These recent spikes in daily death numbers have been a result of increased testing and backlogged data in Michigan’s correctional facilities. Although this data comes from one specific sector it does leave the question as to how many cases have been underreported in Michigan.

Detroit Reports No New Deaths on May 17

According to the State of Michigan, the total number of COVID cases in Michigan rose to 51,142 on May 17, an increase of 638 cases from the previous day. This total was equivalent to 512 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 4). The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report. While the curve is smooth, Chart 1 shows that number of cases in Michigan continues to increase, although the rates of increase over the last week have been higher than the week before.

Chart 2 shows that, based on the five-day rolling averages, the number of new COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan are also only gradually increasing. The number of cumulative COVID cases remained the highest in Detroit, reaching 10,208 on May 15, with Wayne County following at a reported 8,616 cases. On May 15, the five-day rolling average for the number of COVID cases in Oakland County was 7,968, and Macomb County reported 6,258.

The City of Detroit had 1,538 COVID cases per 100,000 people on May 17, a small increase from 1,535 the day before (Chart 3). This is based upon a reported increase of 21 new cases, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 10,348. Wayne County reported 810 cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County had 640 cases per 100,000 people. These per capita rates were based upon 8,717 total cases for Wayne and 8,043 for Oakland. Macomb County reported 726 cases per 100,000 people, which is based upon 6,345 cases.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State. Additionally, the case totals do not reflect the number of people who have recovered, just those who have been infected.

Chart 4 shows that Detroit reported the highest number of daily cases at 90 on May 15, only a small decrease from the day prior. Overall, this chart shows that daily case numbers are declining but in recent days those numbers have been higher than in the week prior.

Chart 5 highlights how the per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people did drop significantly down for Detroit on May 17. On May 17 Detroit reported a per capita rate of 3 new COVID cases per 100,000 people, which was a decrease from the per capita rate of 14 reported the day prior. In total, Detroit reported 21 new COVID cases on May 17. Wayne County’s per capita rate was 3 new COVID cases, which was equivalent to 28 new cases. Oakland County reported a per capita rate of 2 new cases per 100,000 people on May 17, which was equivalent to 20 new cases, and Macomb County reported a rate of 5, which was also equivalent to 41 new cases.

The State’s per capita rate was 5 new cases per 100,000 people, equivalent to 638 new cases. Of these 638 new cases, Southeastern Michigan accounted for 122. This shows that Southeastern Michigan did not account for the majority of new cases in the State on May 17; the region didn’t even account for half of the new cases. 

Chart 4 shows that Detroit reported the highest number of daily cases at 90 on May 15, only a small decrease from the day prior. Overall, this chart shows that daily case numbers are declining but in recent days those numbers have been higher than in the week prior.

Chart 5 highlights how the per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people did drop significantly down for Detroit on May 17. On May 17 Detroit reported a per capita rate of 3 new COVID cases per 100,000 people, which was a decrease from the per capita rate of 14 reported the day prior. In total, Detroit reported 21 new COVID cases on May 17. Wayne County’s per capita rate was 3 new COVID cases, which was equivalent to 28 new cases. Oakland County reported a per capita rate of 2 new cases per 100,000 people on May 17, which was equivalent to 20 new cases, and Macomb County reported a rate of 5, which was also equivalent to 41 new cases.

The State’s per capita rate was 5 new cases per 100,000 people, equivalent to 638 new cases. Of these 638 new cases, Southeastern Michigan accounted for 122. This shows that Southeastern Michigan did not account for the majority of new cases in the State on May 17; the region didn’t even account for half of the new cases. 

The fatality rates throughout Southeastern Michigan leveled off in recent days, with Detroit still reporting the highest rate at 12.2 percent on May 17. The State reported a 9.6 percent fatality rate.

One reason we may be seeing such high fatality rates in Michigan is due to the low testing rates. When only having-presumably-a lower of number confirmed COVID cases than is actually likely due to the limited availability of tests, the fatality rate appears higher because the base comparison is smaller than it might be.

May 17 was the first time since March 24 that Detroit reported zero COVID deaths. However, since there is a delay in reporting some deaths may not have been reported, according to the State. Overall though, the data is showing that daily death numbers continue to decline in the State and we can only hope this trend continues.

Michigan COVID Cases Topple 50,000

According to the State of Michigan, the total number of COVID cases in Michigan rose to 50,079 on May 15, an increase of 497 cases from the previous day. This total was equivalent to 501 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 4). The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report. While the curve is smooth, Chart 1 shows that number of cases in Michigan continues to increase, although that rate has been declining overall.

Chart 2 shows that, based on the five-day rolling averages, the number of new COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan are also only gradually increasing. The number of cumulative COVID cases remained the highest in Detroit, reaching just above 10,000 on May 13, with Wayne County following at a reported 8,479 cases. On May 13, the five-day rolling average for the number of COVID cases in Oakland County was 7,861, and Macomb County reported 6,161.

The City of Detroit had 1,521 COVID cases per 100,000 people on May 15, an increase from 1,511 the day before (Chart 3). This is based upon a reported increase of 66 new cases, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 10,230. Wayne County reported 804 cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County had 636 cases per 100,000 people. These per capita rates were based upon 8,652 total cases for Wayne and 7,994 for Oakland. Macomb County reported 718 cases per 100,000 people, which is based upon 6,274 cases.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State. Additionally, the case totals do not reflect the number of people who have recovered, just those who have been infected.

Chart 4 shows that Detroit reported the highest number of daily cases at 89 on May 13, only a small decrease from the day prior. Overall, this chart shows that daily case numbers are declining but the last two days those numbers have been higher than they were in the previous week. This is in part because the 5-day rolling average calculation used for this chart still reflects the spike in daily cases from two days ago.

Chart 5 highlights how the per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people did drop down on May 15, following the May 14 spike. Those rates are now coming back inline with the per capita rates that have been reported for the last week. The per capita rate for Detroit on May 15 was 10 new COVID cases per 100,000 people; this was equivalent to 66 new cases. Wayne County’s per capita rate was 4 new COVID cases, which was equivalent to 46 new cases. Oakland County reported a per capita rate of 3 new cases per 100,000 people on May 15, which was equivalent to 42 new cases, and Macomb County reported a rate of 5, which was also equivalent to 42 new cases.

The State’s per capita rate was 5 new cases per 100,000 people, equivalent to 497 new cases. Of these 497 new cases, Southeastern Michigan accounted for 209. This shows that Southeastern Michigan did not account for the majority of new cases in the State on May 15. 

In Chart 6, the five-day rolling average for the number of deaths in Michigan shows a continuing slow increase (a lagged number of 4,717 deaths, an increase of 55 deaths). The actual reported COVID-19 deaths reached 4,825 on May 15, an increase of 38 deaths from the day prior. Of those 38 additional deaths Southeastern Michigan accounted for 23 of them on May 15.

Chart 7 (a 5-day rolling average) portrays how the total number of COVID deaths in Southeastern Michigan continues to level off, with Detroit reporting the highest cumulative number of deaths at 1,220 on May 13. Wayne County had the second highest total at 935 on May 13.

Chart 8 portrays the total number of COVID deaths per 100,000 people. As of May 15, the cumulative total of COVID deaths per 100,000 people in Detroit was 184 (representing 1,236 deaths). In Wayne County there were 88 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (947 total deaths), in Oakland County there were 71 deaths per 100,000 people (888 total deaths), and in Macomb County there were 83 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (728 total). Detroit reported the highest number of additional deaths at 8.

The State of Michigan had 48 COVID deaths per 100,000 people.

In Chart 9 we see that the number of daily statewide deaths increased slightly to 55 on May 13; 52 daily deaths were reported on May 12. Overall though, the number of daily deaths continues to decline both throughout the State and Southeastern Michigan. Chart 10 shows how the number of deaths in Southeastern Michigan decreased throughout the region, except in Oakland County. On May 13 Oakland County reported 11 daily COVID deaths, 2 more than the day prior. Both Oakland County and Detroit reported the highest number of daily deaths on May 13 at 11. These numbers are based on 5-day rolling averages.

The fatality rates remained stable for May 15, with Detroit continuing to have the highest rate at 12.2 percent. The State reported a 9.6 percent fatality rate.

One reason we may be seeing such high fatality rates in Michigan is due to the low testing rates. When only having-presumably-a lower of number confirmed COVID cases than is actually likely due to the limited availability of tests, the fatality rate appears higher because the base comparison is smaller than it might be.

On the other hand, there is the possibility that despite increasing numbers of tests, the case fatality rate might remain high. If so, this means COVID-19 is a very lethal disease. A recent New York Times article stated that the number of non-reported COVID deaths could be as many as 21,500 throughout the Country. The NYT estimates Michigan has among the highest number of unreported Covid-19 cases in the U.S.

The number of daily deaths continues to decline in Michigan and throughout Southeastern Michigan. While this is certainly positive news, the daily case numbers still have a long way to go before reaching the single digits. Recent daily case number increases have been related to data backlogs and increased testing. On May 13 the State performed the highest number of COVID tests in a single day yet. With more testing available we can better monitor those infected, allowing higher recovery rates, lower number of deaths and fewer opportunities for community spread.

Additionally, as noted yesterday, the decline in daily deaths may not be as accurate as suspected, meaning more COVID deaths have occurred than are accounted for.

Michigan’s COVID Data Backlog Raises Questions

According to the State of Michigan, the total number of COVID cases in Michigan rose to 49,582 on May 14, an increase of 1,191 cases from the previous day. This total was equivalent to 497 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 4). The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report. While the curve is smooth, and still trending upward at a much lower rate, Chart 1 does reflect a larger increase on May 12 than what has been trending. The 1,191 case increase on May 14, which is reflected in Chart 1 with the 5-day rolling average calculation, is partially due to a backlog of case information from Michigan’s correctional facilities that is now being reported, according to the State. Additionally, the State continues to increase the number of people being tested, including those in correctional facilities. The 1,191 daily cases reported on May 14 is the highest daily case number that has been reported since April 29.

Chart 2 shows that, based on the five-day rolling averages, the number of new COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan are also only gradually increasing, but Detroit’s rates are increasing at a higher pace than the other entities in the region. The number of cumulative COVID cases remained the highest in Detroit at 9,934 on May 12, with Wayne County following at a reported 8,406 cases. On May 12, the five-day rolling average for the number of COVID cases in Oakland County was 7,811, and Macomb County reported 6,114.

The City of Detroit had 1,511 COVID cases per 100,000 people on May 11, an increase from 1,483 the day before (Chart 3). This is based upon a reported increase of 191 new cases, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 10,164 . Wayne County reported 799 cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County had 632 cases per 100,000 people. These per capita rates were based upon 8,606 total cases for Wayne and 7,952 for Oakland. Macomb County reported 713 cases per 100,000 people, which is based upon 6,232 cases. Please note there was an error in population numbers for some of the entities reported here, which affected recent per capita rate numbers. That has been adjusted, as have the rate numbers. These overall trends have not changed though.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State. Additionally, the case totals do not reflect the number of people who have recovered, just those who have been infected.

Chart 4 shows that Detroit reported the highest number of daily cases at 91 on May 12, an increase from the 65 new cases reported the day prior. Overall this chart reflects that the largest daily case increase since April did impact Detroit and Macomb, Oakland and Wayne counties.

Chart 5 further highlights how the per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people did noticeably increase for Detroit and Macomb, Oakland and Wayne counties. The per capita rate for Detroit on May 14 was 28 new COVID cases per 100,000 people; this was equivalent to 191 new cases and more than double the per capita rate from the day prior. Wayne County’s per capita rate increased to 18 new COVID cases, which was equivalent to 190 new cases. Oakland County reported a per capita rate of 10 new cases per 100,000 people on May 14, which was equivalent to 122 new cases, and Macomb County reported a rate of 11, which was equivalent to 95 new cases.

The State’s per capita rate was 11.9 new cases per 100,000 people, equivalent to 1,191 new cases. Of these 1,191 new cases, Southeastern Michigan accounted for 653.

In Chart 6, the five-day rolling average for the number of deaths shows a continuing slow increase (a lagged number of 4,662 deaths, an increase of 52 deaths). The actual reported COVID-19 deaths reached 4,787 on May 14, an increase of 73 deaths from the day prior. Of those 73 deaths, 35 were added to the May 14 count as a result of the State comparing death records with the COVID database. Southeastern Michigan contributed 55 additional deaths to the overall 73 reported on May 14. Even with the addition of the 35 deaths, the overall daily death county continued to decrease from the day prior.

Chart 7 portrays how the total number of COVID deaths in Detroit moved above 1,200 on May 12. According to the 5-day rolling average data Detroit reported 1,209 cumulative deaths. Wayne County had the second highest total at 927 on May 12.

Chart 8 portrays the total number of COVID deaths per 100,000 people. As of May 14, the cumulative total of COVID deaths per 100,000 people in Detroit was 184 (representing 1,236 deaths). In Wayne County there were 88 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (947 total deaths), in Oakland County there were 71 deaths per 100,000 people (888 total deaths), and in Macomb County there were 83 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (728 total). Detroit reported the highest number of additional deaths at 18.

The State of Michigan had 48 COVID deaths per 100,000 people.

Although the number of daily cases spiked up on May 14, the number of daily deaths continued to decline both statewide and regionally. In Chart 9 we see that the number of daily statewide deaths decreased to 52, and in Chart 10 we see that the number of daily deaths has been declining as well. Chart 10 also shows how the number of deaths in Southeastern Michigan has a large impact on the statewide deaths. Detroit reported the highest number of daily deaths on May 12 at 11, a decline from the 13 daily deaths reported the day prior. These numbers are based on 5-day rolling averages.

The fatality rate for Detroit was 12.2 percent on May 14 and the State’s rate was 9.7 percent. The fatality rates for Macomb, Oakland and Wayne counties all remained above 11 percent.

One reason we may be seeing such high fatality rates in Michigan is due to the low testing rates. When only having-presumably-a lower of number confirmed COVID cases than is actually likely due to the limited availability of tests, the fatality rate appears higher because the base comparison is smaller than it might be.

On the other hand, there is the possibility that despite increasing numbers of tests, the case fatality rate might remain high. If so, this means COVID-19 is a very lethal disease.

On May 14 the number of daily COVID cases reached the highest its highest point since late April. Although some of the 1,191 daily cases reported are a result of a backlog of case data from Michigan correctional facilities, it also leaves the question as to how many additional cases haven’t been reported. And, while the number of daily deaths continues to decline, a recent New York Times article states that the true number of COVID deaths are highly underreported throughout the Country. In Michigan, we see some signs of this as daily death numbers spike up three times a week due to a comparison of death certificates and COVID databases. But, as the article states, there are certainly even more COVID deaths that aren’t be accounted for any way.

So, as the statewide case and death numbers decline overall, information such as that presented yesterday does highlight how data spikes can happen for several reasons. Not only are backlogged and lack of data and increased testing such reasons, but also if the rate of community spread increases due to people disobeying the Stay-at-Home order.

NYT: Number of COVID Deaths Highly Underreported

According to a recent New York Times article, the number of COVID deaths throughout the country is estimated to be undercounted by about 21,500 deaths. This number certainly impacts Michigan, as we reached 4,787 deaths on May 14. In Michigan we know that the daily death numbers are often underreported because the State adds “additional deaths” to its daily total three times a week. These deaths are tacked onto the daily total after they have been discovered by comparing death certificates and the State’s COVID database. However, as this article states, the cause of death for many individuals who died recently is unknown because an autopsy wasn’t conducted and they didn’t receive a COVID test. Additionally, as the virus began to hit the country in the early days many the cause of death for many individuals was listed as “respiratory failure” or multisystem organ failure. Overall, this article shows how this virus continues to kill more people than accounted for, which already totals more than the number of Americans who died over seven decades in the Korean, Vietnam, Persian Gulf, Afghanistan and Iraq Wars.

Michigan COVID Numbers Declining, Recent Movement Could Cause Uptick

According to the State of Michigan, the total number of COVID cases in Michigan rose to 48,391 on May 13, an increase of 370 cases from the previous day. This total was equivalent to 485 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 4). The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report. The upward trend of the curve has been flattening in recent weeks as the number of new COVID cases, both throughout the State and regionally, gradually declines. In Southeastern Michigan, Detroit reported the highest number of daily cases at 65 on May 11; this was a decline from the day before (Chart 4). Note that this five day rolling average causes these daily case and daily death charts to lag two days behind.

Chart 2 shows that, based on the five-day rolling averages, the number of new COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan continues to flatten. The number of cumulative COVID cases remained the highest in Detroit at 9,843 on May 11, with Wayne County following at a reported 8,335 cases. On May 11, the five-day rolling average for the number of COVID cases in Oakland County was 7,759, and Macomb County reported 6,072.

The City of Detroit had 1,483 COVID cases per 100,000 people on May 13, an increase from 1,471 the day before (Chart 3). This is based upon a reported increase of 76 new cases, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 9,973. Wayne County reported 1,251 cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County had 1,164 cases per 100,000 people. These per capita rates were based upon 8,416 total cases for Wayne and 7,830 for Oakland. Macomb County reported 912 cases per 100,000 people, which is based upon 6,137 cases.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State. Additionally, the case totals do not reflect the number of people who have recovered, just those who have been infected.

As noted, Chart 4 shows that Detroit reported the highest number of daily cases at 65 on May 11. This chart further highlights how the number of new cases, calculated with a 5-day rolling average, have flattened out of over the last week throughout Southeastern Michigan.

Chart 5 shows that the per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people has nearly flattened out across Southeastern Michigan, but with Detroit still remaining noticeably above the others. The per capita rate for Detroit on May 13 was 11 new COVID cases per 100,000 people; this was equivalent to 76 new cases. Wayne County’s per capita rate increased to 4 new COVID cases, which was equivalent to 39 new cases. Oakland County reported a per capita rate of 4 new cases per 100,000 people on May 13, which was equivalent to 46 new cases, and Macomb County reported a rate of 5, which was equivalent to 40 new cases.

The State’s per capita rate was 3.7 new cases per 100,000 people, equivalent to 370 new cases. Of these 370 new cases, Southeastern Michigan accounted for 218.

The chart also shows that the per capita rates for the number of daily COVID cases has been fairly stable for the last several days.

In Chart 6, the five-day rolling average for the number of cumulative deaths shows a continuing slow increase (a lagged number of 4,610 deaths, an increase of 64 deaths). The actual reported COVID-19 deaths reached 4,714 on May 13, an increase of 40 deaths from the day prior. Southeastern Michigan contributed 27 additional deaths to the overall 40 reported on May 13. Such data further shows that while the rate of death is increasing at a much slower rate throughout the State and in Southeastern Michigan, the Southeastern Michigan region accounts for the majority of the growth in cases and deaths.

Chart 7 portrays how the total number of COVID deaths in Southeastern Michigan continues to increase, but at a much slower rate. The rate of increase is gradually declining because the number of additional deaths throughout the State (Chart 9) and the region are declining.

Chart 8 portrays the total number of COVID deaths per 100,000 people. As of May 13, the cumulative total of COVID deaths per 100,000 people in Detroit was 181 (representing 1,218 deaths). In Wayne County there were 139 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (938 total deaths), in Oakland County there were 130 deaths per 100,000 people (874 total deaths), and in Macomb County there were 107 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (717 total). Wayne County reported the highest number of additional deaths at 11.

As shown in Chart 9, the last time the State reported as few deaths as was reported on May 11 (as determined by a 5-day rolling average) was in March; the State reported 64 daily COVID deaths on May 11.

The State of Michigan had 47 COVID deaths per 100,000 people.

Just as the State’s daily COVID death numbers are gradually declining so are those numbers in Southeastern Michigan. Chart 10 highlights how since mid-April the overall number of daily COVID deaths has declined in Detroit and Macomb, Oakland and Wayne counties. Even more recently, those numbers are leveling off. Oakland County reported the highest number of additional deaths on May 11 at 14, this was based on a 5-day rolling average calculation. Detroit reported 13 additional daily deaths, the same number it reported for the last three days. Wayne County also reported 13 additional daily COVID deaths on May 11, based on 5-day rolling averages, while Macomb County reported 7.

The fatality rate for Detroit continued to hover above 12 percent on May 13 while Macomb County’s fatality rate inched toward 12 percent. Detroit reported a fatality rate of 12.2 percent and Macomb County reported a fatality rate of 11.7 percent. The State reported a 9.7 percent fatality rate on May 13, the same rate it reported the day prior.

One reason we may be seeing such high fatality rates in Michigan is due to the low testing rates. When only having-presumably-a lower of number confirmed COVID cases than is actually likely due to the limited availability of tests, the fatality rate appears higher because the base comparison is smaller than it might be.

On the other hand, there is the possibility that despite increasing numbers of tests, the case fatality rate might remain high. If so, this means COVID-19 is a very lethal disease.

The data continues to show that the spread of the virus is slowing down, with the number of daily case and death numbers declining overall. However, a new concern was raised on May 13 by Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, and others, following a New York Times article that showed how Michigan had the largest drop in the percentage of people staying home last week. According to the article, about 1 million people started leaving their homes again. We do know that some industry-such as construction and manufacturing-have begun to open in Michigan, and this is certainly affecting the increase in the number of people moving about. We also know that, given the infectious nature of this virus, the increased amount of movement might trigger an increase in COVID case numbers for another week or so.

Number of Daily COVID Deaths Increase on May 12, Overall Decline Continues

According to the State of Michigan, the total number of COVID cases in Michigan rose to 48,021 on May 12, an increase of 469 cases from the previous day. This total was equivalent to 481 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 4). The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report. That upward trend of the curve has been flattening in recent weeks as the number of new COVID cases, both throughout the State and regionally, gradually declines. In Southeastern Michigan, Detroit reported the highest number of daily cases at 66 on May 10; this was a decline from the day before (Chart 3). Note that this five day rolling average causes these daily case and daily death charts to lag two days behind.

Chart 2 shows that, based on the five-day rolling averages, the number of new COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan continues to progress upwards at small increments, giving way to a much flatter curve than when the virus first landed in Michigan. The number of cumulative COVID cases remained the highest in Detroit at 9,778 on May 10, with Wayne County following at a reported 8,287 cases. On May 10, the five-day rolling average for the number of COVID cases in Oakland County was 7,726, and Macomb County reported 6,037.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State.

The City of Detroit had 1,471 COVID cases per 100,000 people on May 12, an increase from 1,464 the day before (Chart 4). This is based upon a reported increase of 46 new cases, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 9,897. Wayne County reported 1,245 cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County had 1,157 cases per 100,000 people. These per capita rates were based upon 8,377 total cases for Wayne and 7,784 for Oakland. Macomb County reported 906 cases per 100,000 people, which is based upon 6,097 cases.

Chart 5 shows that the per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people is much closer in range for all counties and the City of Detroit now than it was even a week ago. On May 12 the per capita rates ranged from 1 new COVID case per 100,000 people (Livingston County) to 7 new COVID cases per 100,000 people (Detroit). The per capita rate for Detroit and Wayne County did slightly decrease from the day prior while the remaining counties in Southeastern Michigan experienced a slight increase. For Detroit, the per capita rate of 7 was equal to 46 new cases and Wayne County’s per capita rate of 3 new COVID cases per 100,000 people was equivalent to 34 new cases. Oakland County reported a per capita rate of 3 new cases per 100,000 people on May 12, which was equivalent to 32 new cases, and Macomb County reported a rate of 4, which was equivalent to 33 new cases.

The State’s per capita rate was 3.8 new cases per 100,000 people, equivalent to 469 new cases. In total, of the 469 new cases, Southeastern Michigan accounted for 174 of them.

The chart also shows that the per capita rates for the number of daily COVID cases has been fairly stable for the last several days.

In Chart 6, the five-day rolling average for the number of deaths shows a continuing slow increase (a lagged number of 4,546 deaths, an increase of 66 deaths). The actual reported COVID-19 deaths reached 4,674 on May 12, an increase of 90 deaths from the day prior. Of those 90 daily deaths, 19 were added to the May 12 total as a result of the State reviewing death certificates with the COVID database.  Even when removing the 19 additional deaths added to the daily total, the number of additional deaths more than doubled from the previous day. However, the overall death curve is increasing at a much slower rate than it was even just 10 days ago. Additionally, Southeastern Michigan contributed 74 additional deaths to the overall 90 reported on May 12.

Chart 7 portrays how the total number of COVID deaths in Southeastern Michigan continues to increase, but that rate of increase has been gradually declining overall, and the curve is slowly starting to flatten. The rate of increase is gradually declining because the number of additional deaths throughout the State (Chart 8) and the region, overall, are declining. Chart 9 highlights how some of the entities that have continuously contributed to the State’s overall growth in COVID deaths have experienced declines in the number of daily COVID deaths. Oakland County reported the highest number of additional deaths on May 10 at 17, this was based on a 5-day rolling average calculation. Detroit reported 13 additional daily deaths, the same number it reported the day before. While Oakland County did report 2 more additional deaths on May 10 than it did the day before, for the entire month of May no government entity in Southeastern Michigan has reported more than 20 daily COVID deaths, based on 5-day rolling averages. In April, these entities reported up to as many as 54 daily deaths based on 5-day rolling averages.

Chart 10 portrays the total number of COVID deaths per 100,000 people. As of May 12, the cumulative total of COVID deaths per 100,000 people in Detroit was 180 (representing 1,213 deaths). In Wayne County there were 138 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (927 total deaths), in Oakland County there were 130 deaths per 100,000 people (872 total deaths), and in Macomb County there were 106 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (710 total).

The State of Michigan had 47 COVID deaths per 100,000 people.

The fatality rates for Detroit and Macomb, Oakland and Wayne counties all reached 11 percent or higher on May 12. Detroit had the highest fatality rate at 12.2 percent. The State reported a 9.7 percent fatality rate on May 12.

One reason we may be seeing such high fatality rates in Michigan is due to the low testing rates. When only having-presumably-a lower of number confirmed COVID cases than is actually likely due to the limited availability of tests, the fatality rate appears higher because the base comparison is smaller than it might be.

Ninety additional COVID deaths were reported in Michigan on May 12, showing that numbers, although declining, can spike up again on any given day. This is why prevention and testing are key in fighting the spread of the virus, to ultimately ensure the fewest number of people possible become infected. There is a call for an increased rate of testing in Michigan and the Stay-at-Home Order remains in place. However, to prevent the spread of the virus to work settings, the public must remain committed to following the guidelines.