To learn how industrial cities are finding success in a new economy, click here to read a recent New York Times article.
Wayne County has the largest number of Concealed Pistol Licenses (CPLs) in the state, according to the Michigan State Police, but on a per 100 residents (21 years of age or older) it ranks 67 of the State’s 83 counties. According to the data, as of April 2, 2018 there were 109,464 approved CPLs in Wayne County There were 1,254,878 Wayne County residents aged 21 and older. On a per capita basis for the 21 and older population Wayne had 8.72 CPLs issued per 100 residents 21 years of age and older. Keweenaw County, the northernmost county in Michigan, with 15.09 CPLs per 100 residents (21 or older) had the highest rate in the state.
CPLs are limited to those 21 years of age or older, which is why that age was used as the threshold for the per capita maps in this post.
Of the 83 counties in Michigan, the following had the highest number of issued CPLs in the State as of April 2, 2018:
- Wayne County: 109461
- Oakland County: 76634
- Macomb County: 60064
- Genesee County: 28564
- Kent County: 23176
- Livingston County: 16379
- Washtenaw County: 14543
- Ottawa County: 14281
- Clair County: 12897
- Monroe County: 12389
Of the 10 counties listed above, 9 of them are also on the top 10 list of counties with the highest populations in the State. Accordingly, Wayne, Oakland Macomb counties have the highest populations and the highest number of approved CPLs, respectively.
Below, is a list of the top 10 counties with the highest number of CPLs per 100 residents 21 years of age or older. This list, and corresponding map, shows a more accurate representation of which counties have among the highest percentage of residents with CPLs.
- Keweenaw County: 15.09
- Alcona County: 14.34
- Lapeer County: 13.95
- Montmorency County: 13.83
- Luce County: 13.49
- Dickinson County: 13.22
- Alger County: 12.92
- Kalkaska County: 12.9
- Livingston County: 12.83
- Missaukee County: 12.55
As the map and list above demonstrates, none of the counties with the highest per capita number of CPLs are located in Southeastern Michigan, with the exception of Livingston County. Four the counties in the above list are located in the Upper Peninsula and another four are located in the northern part of the Lower Peninsula. Wayne and Oakland counties are in the second lowest tier for the number of CPLs issued per 100 residents age 21 and older. In Wayne County there were 8.72 CPLs issued per 100 residents 21 years of age and older as of April 2, 2018; in Oakland County there were 8.81 CPLs issued per 100 residents 21 years of age and older and in Macomb County there were 9.86. The county with the lowest number of CPLs issued per 100 residents 21 years of age and older was Kent County at 5.65.
In 2016 County Gun Boards were eliminated; these bodies had the power to deny an individual a CPL if the license was deemed detrimental to the applicant or others. Now, County Clerks and the Michigan State Police process concealed weapon applications. The data used for this post is from the Michigan State Police.
The map below is one of the most striking we have produced recently in that it shows the clear concentration of higher income households moving into a relatively narrow range of neighborhoods near Downtown, east along Jefferson and north along Woodward.
It also shows that, with a few exceptions, many of the highest median income Census Tracts in the City of Detroit have amongst the newest homeowners. For example, majority of the Census Tracts along the Detroit River and bordering the Downtown and newer developed areas in the City have median incomes between about $69,000 and $132,000, and the average year of property purchase ranges between 2003 and 2012. The data used in this post is from the 2016 American Community Survey, thus these higher income tracts have an average length of residency between four and 13 years. In the map below, which highlights the average length of homeownership and median income, the earliest average year of homeownership for any one Census Tract is 1980.
Throughout the City’s most eastern and western Census Tracts the median incomes range between about $10,000 and $46,000, the lower two income brackets on the map, but the range of median move in date of homeowners is wide. For example, on the most western side of Detroit, average year of homeowner residency ranges between 1997 and 2012, with the average median income being between about $32,000 and $46,000. As you move further east, toward the central area of the City, the average length of homeownership increases and the average median income, those being in the lower half of the overall range, remains the same. There are of course some exceptions. For example, in the Palmer Park area the average median income ranges between about $70,000 and $132,000 in the Census Tracts and the average year in which a homeowner purchased a property ranges between 1991 and 1996. In Southwest Detroit, homeowners, on average, purchased their properties in 1991 or later, and the majority of the Census Tracts in that area have homeowners with median incomes ranging between $32,000 and $46,000. The Corktown Census Tract does have the same average length of homeownership, but the residents there tend to have higher incomes. Moving east beyond the central area of the Detroit we see similar patterns to the western area of the City. The longest average length of homeownership is located farther from the eastern border of the City, and the most eastern Census Tracts have some of the most recent average years of purchase.
The overall message of the homeownership map is that the Census Tracts with the highest median incomes tend to have some of the City’s newest homeowners, as do some of the City’s Census Tracts with the lowest average median incomes. This paints several pictures, the first being that neighborhoods near, north and east of Downtown are attracting those with median incomes more than two times higher than the overall median income for the City of Detroit ($26,000). Another picture could be that many people with low and moderate median incomes have also had some opportunities to purchase homes, however these homes are located on the outskirts of the City. Or citizens with relatively low incomes are buying homes that were foreclosed upon in the 2008 recession. Finally, the Census Tracts with lowest longest average length of homeownership also tend to have residents with among the lowest median incomes. This could be due to the fact that these homeowners are now retired and living off of Social Security, pensions or other forms of retirement based incomes. This is consistent with our prior posts on the distribution of households receiving government and pension payments.
The map that displays the median income and average length of residency at a property for renters is much different than the homeownership map. As would be expected, the average length of residency for a rental tenant in a particular property is much shorter than that of a homeowner. The earliest average year of renter tenancy for a Census Tract in the City is 2001. There are only three Census Tracts in the City where the average year a renter moved into a property is between 2001 and 2003; the median incomes for these Census Tracts tops out at about $32,000. Overall, the top median income for the renter map tops out at $52,000, furthering the conversation that renters tend to have lower incomes. The west side of the City had the highest concentration of newest tenants (average length of renter tenancy ranging between 2012 and 2014) with majority of the median incomes ranging between $9,000 and $23,000.
The renter map shows that, overall, those who rent tend to have lower median incomes than those who purchase homes and also do not have a tendency to remain in one location for long periods of time.
Overall, this post highlights how those with median incomes more than double the City’s median income are purchasing properties in developing areas of Detroit. However, those with among the lowest median incomes in the City either rent and move around every few years or have owned and remained in their home for well over 30 years.
The number of industrial robots used throughout Michigan increased by 14,785 between 2010 and 2015, according to the Brookings Analysis of International Federation of Robotics Data. In 2015 there were about 24,000 industrial robots in being used, according to the data set, an increase from the about 10,000 being used in 2010. According to the Brookings data set, the auto industry utilized the highest number of industrial robots at a total of about 233,000 throughout the U.S. in 2015. With Michigan being the automotive capital of the country it should come as no surprise that the state had the highest concentration of industrial robots in 2015. According to the data set, 12 percent of the industrial robots in use in 2015 were concentrated in Michigan; 8.7 percent of the nation’s total of industrial robots were concentrated in Ohio in 2015 and 8.3 percent were concentrated in Indiana.
When examining the data at the local level, it shows that the Detroit-Warren-Dearborn Metropolitan area had the highest number of industrial robots in both 2010 and 2015. In 2010 there were 5,753 industrial robots being utilized in the Detroit-Warren-Dearborn Metropolitan area and in 2015 that number increased to 15,115. Followed by the Detroit Metropolitan area, the Grand Rapids Metropolitan area had the second highest number of industrial robots being utilized in the state, according the data set. In 2010, there were 1,091 industrial robots being used and by 2015 that number increased to 3,102.
While the Detroit Metropolitan area had the highest number of industrial robots, it was the Battle Creek Metropolitan area that had the highest number of robots per 1,000 workers in 2015. According to the data, the Battle Creek Metropolitan area had about 17 robots per 1,000 workers while the Detroit Metropolitan area had 8.5 industrial robots per 1,000 workers. The Jackson Metropolitan area had 8.8 industrial robots per 1,000 workers in 2015, according to the data set.
Next week we will explore how industrial robots correlate to unemployment rates in Michigan.
A Hepatitis A outbreak has been ravaging through Southeastern Michigan since August of 2016, according to information from the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services. The Michigan Department of Health and Human Services has data on the number of confirmed cases of Hepatitis A from Aug. 1, 2016 to Feb. 20, 2018; this data is broken down at the county level, with the City of Detroit also being included. A closer look at draft summary data from the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services shows that the number of confirmed outbreak related cases really started to increase in July of 2017.
The Hepatitis A disease is a liver infection that is spread person-to-person. An individual can contract Hepatitis A from contaminated food or drink of from contact with an infected individual. Since the outbreak struck the Metro-Detroit area there have been numerous news stories related to individuals infected with Hepatitis A working at different restaurants. Attention to these situations has been part of the public outreach process not only to inform individuals about potential contamination if they ate at a restaurant with a confirmed Hepatitis A case, but to also raise awareness about the regional outbreak to all citizens.
The Michigan Department of Health and Human Services states that there is no common source of food, beverage or drug identified as the potential source of infection. The Department also states that transmission appears to be through illicit drug use with direct person-to-person contact; those with a history of drug use, incarceration, transient housing and/or homelessness appear to be at the highest risk.
According to the data, Macomb County has had the highest number of confirmed cases since Aug. 1, 2016 at 211. The City of Detroit came in second with a total of 161 confirmed Hepatitis A cases between Aug. 1, 2016 and Feb. 20, 2018. In Wayne County there were 132 confirmed cases. Throughout the state there have been 760 confirmed Hepatitis A cases since Aug. 1, 2016, 615 of which have resulted in hospitalization and 25 of which have resulted in death. The number of confirmed cases in Macomb County makes up 28 percent of the total confirmed cases in Michigan and the number of confirmed cases in Detroit makes up 21 percent. The only other county in the state to have more than 100 confirmed Hepatitis A cases since Aug. 1, 2016 was Oakland County; according to the data there was 103 confirmed cases.
In addition to the data highlighting how the Hepatitis A outbreak is concentrated in the tri-county region, the data also shows that the median age of those infected with Hepatitis A since Aug. 1, 2016 is 41 and 35 percent of those with a confirmed case of Hepatitis A are female.
In Southeastern Michigan, Wayne County had the highest infant mortality rate in 2016 at 8.3 deaths per 1,000 births, according to data from the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services. Of the 23,146 births in Wayne County in 2016 there were 192 deaths. St. Clair and Washtenaw counties had the second highest rates in the region, each at 5.7 deaths per 1,000 births. In St Clair County there were nine infant deaths out of the 1,591 births in 2016 and in Washtenaw County there were 21 infant deaths of the reported 3,695 births that year. Of the seven counties Livingston County had the lowest infant mortality rate. According to the data, there were four infant deaths in Livingston County in 2016 of the reported 1,783 births.
The Michigan Department of Health and Human Services data shows that every other county in Southeastern Michigan, with the exception of Washtenaw County, also experienced a decline in its infant mortality rate between 2015 and 2016. For Washtenaw County the infant mortality rate for 2016 was reported at 5.7 deaths per 1,000 births and for 2015 it was 3.8 deaths per 1,000 births.
Historical data from the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services shows the 2016 infant mortality rate of 8.3 for Wayne County is the lowest it has been since at least 1989. Data from the department shows that in 2015 the infant death rate in Wayne County was 9.5, in 2014 it was 9.3 and in 2013 it was 9.1. These rates, aside from the 2016 rate, were also the lowest reported rates for Wayne County since at least 1989.
According to an August Detroit News article infant mortality rates have declined in Detroit. The article discusses how research correlates higher rates of infant death to disparities such as poverty, access to food and lack of access to education, transportation and health care. In 2016 the infant mortality rate for Detroit was reported at 13.1 per 1,000 infants and in 2015 it was reported at 14.4. The infant mortality rate for the state of Michigan in 2016 was 6.8 deaths per 1,000 births.
While data shows that infant death rates are decreasing in Southeastern Michigan there are still concerns over pregnancy related maternal death rates in Michigan. Drawing Detroit is working with the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services to obtain this data to examine how rates have changed over recent years.
Of the 212 communities in Southeastern Michigan for which labor force data was available from the American Community Survey, 119 experienced a decrease in the percentage of 16-64 year olds in the labor force between 2010 and 2015. Alternately examining the 16 years of age and up population, 135 of the 212 communities experienced a decrease. Port Huron Township in St. Clair County experienced the largest decline in its labor force for both the 16-64 year old population and the 16 and up population. For the 16-64 year old population the decline was 17.1 percent. In 2015, 74.7 percent of the 16-64 year old population in Port Huron Township was part of the labor force, and by 2015 that had declined to 61.9 percent. For the 16 and up population, Port Huron Township had a 19 percent decline in its labor force participation rate between 2010 and 2015, making that the largest decrease in the region. In 2010, 64.6 percent of Port Huron Township’s 16 and up population was in the labor force and by 2015 that declined to 52.4 percent.
While majority of the region experienced declines in the labor force participation rate, some communities experienced substantial increases. For the 16 and up population there were five communities with a percent change increase above 20 percent between 2010 and 2015. The city of Memphis had the largest percent change between 2010 and 2015 at 25.9 percent. In 2010, 61 percent of the population was participating in the labor force, and by 2015 that number increased to 76.8 percent. For the 16-64 year old population there were only three communities where the percent increase in labor force participation rates was above 10 percent. Summerfield Township in Monroe County had the largest percent increase for the 16-64 year old population at 14 percent. In 2010, 71 percent of the 16-64 year olds participated in the work force in Summerfield Township, and by 2015 that increased to 81.2 percent.
Overall, this post shows that majority of Southeastern Michigan has experienced a decline the percentage of individuals participating in the labor force since 2010. For labor force participation, there is a clear tendency for inner ring suburbs of Detroit to show moderate or substantial declines. Exurban townships evidenced some of the highest increases in labor force participation.
In 2015 the Labor Force participation rate throughout Southeastern Michigan was the lowest in Highland Park (at 58%) for those 16 and above , according to the American Community Survey. For reference, the rate average rate nationally was 62.4% in September 2015. By August 2017, it was 62.9.
As the maps below show, both high and low labor force participation is generally concentrated on the two sides of Eight Mile Road, just across county borders–low in northern Wayne County in the Detroit and Highland Park area, high in southern Oakland County in the Ferndale area.
 16 and above refers to all ages including those above 64.
For those 16 and older the City of Highland Park had the lowest labor force participation rate in the region at 58 percent for those 16 and older and 54 percent for those between the ages of 16-64. In the City of Detroit the labor for participation for those 16 and older was 63 percent; it was 53 percent for those between the ages of 16 and 64. While there was a pocket of Wayne County where the labor force participation rate wasn’t above 55.2 percent for those 16 and older and above 65 percent for those between 16 and 64, the majority of the region had labor force participation rates between 62.2 percent and 71.4 percent for those aged 16 and older and between 72.7 percent and 80.5 percent for those between the ages of 16 and 64. Just as there was a concentration of low labor force participation in Wayne County in and around Detroit, there was a concentration of the highest labor force participation markets in southern Oakland County in the Ferndale/Royal Oak area. In Royal Oak the labor force participation rate was 74.8 percent for those 16 and older and 86.2 percent for those between the ages of 18 and 64. Ferndale had the highest labor force participation rate at for those between ages of 16-64 at 87.9 percent, and for those 16 and older and it was 73.2 percent.
An understanding of the labor force participation rate is important as it is another strong indicator of the economy. Those classified as unemployed may not be active participants of the workforce for a variety of reasons, one of which includes becoming discouraged and stopping seeking employment.
Next week we will look at how the labor force participation rate has changed between 2010 and 2015 and also examine how it correlates to the region’s poverty rates.
- The unemployment rate decreased at the State and local levels(monthly);
- Regionally, Livingston County’s unemployment rate remains the lowest;
- The Standard and Poor’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the Detroit Metropolitan Statistical Area shows home prices continue to increase monthly and annually while national mortgage rates are lower than those throughout the State and the City of Detroit.
In August of 2017 the unemployment rate for the State of Michigan was 4.6, a slight decrease from the July unemployment rate of 4.9, according to the most recent data provided by the Michigan Department of Technology, Management and Budget. The State unemployment rate for August is about on par with what it was reported to be in August of 2016 which was 4.5.
The City of Detroit unemployment rate was reported to be 3 points lower in August of 2017 than what it was reported at in August of 2016. For August of this year the City’s unemployment rate was reported at 9.4; in 2016 it was reported to be 12.4.
The chart above displays the unemployment rates for each of the seven counties in Southeastern Michigan for August of 2016 and 2017. Wayne County had the highest unemployment rates for both 2016 and 2017 (7.4 and 5.5 percent, respectively). In August of 2017, Livingston County had the lowest unemployment rate at 3.2 while Washtenaw County had the lowest rate in 2016 at 3.9 (Washtenaw County’s rate remained at 3.9 in August of 2017 too).
Wayne and Monroe counties were the only two in the region with unemployment rates above 4.6 percent in 2017. In 2016 though, Washtenaw County was the only one in the region that had an unemployment rate below 4.5.
St. Clair County had the largest unemployment rate decrease between June 2016 and 2017 at 2 and Wayne County had a decrease of 1.9.
Above are three average 30-year mortgage interest rates at the national, state and local levels. These rates were provided by bankrate.com, which does a national survey of large lenders on a weekly basis. As a 30-year fixed rate mortgage is the most traditional type of home financing this was chosen to show the rate differences.
It was the national interest rate with the lowest average for the week of September 14, 2017 at 3.8, which was 0.23 points lower than the last time we examined this data. This is the first time in the four months we have examined this data that the national interest rate average was lower than the State of Michigan’s.
Also during the week of September 14, 2017 Detroit’s average 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate was 4, a rate that was higher than both the national and state averages. This was the lowest we have reported it to be since March.
The above charts show the Standard and Poor’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the Detroit Metropolitan Statistical Area. The index includes the price for homes that have sold but does not include the price of new home construction, condos, or homes that have been remodeled.
According to the index, the average price of single-family dwellings sold in Metro Detroit was $116,030 in June 2017; this was $1,170 higher than the average family dwelling price in May. Also, the June 2017 price was an increase of $8,130 from June of 2016 and an increase of $13,320 from June of 2015 and an increase of $18,690 from June of 2014.