Majority of Michigan’s New COVID Case Occurring Outside of Southeastern Michigan

On July 6, the State of Michigan reported a total of 66,173 cases, an increase of 297 cases from the day prior. In terms of the number of new daily cases, the 297 new COVID cases reported on July 6 is a decrease from the 543 new cases reported on July 5. Of the new 297 new COVID cases, 97 were documented in Southeastern Michigan. In total, 33 percent of the new COVID cases were in Southeastern Michigan, meaning case numbers are increasing at a higher rate outside of the region than locally. In Chart 1 we show that the State total for the number of COVID cases on July 4 was 65,346–a five-day rolling average. The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report. A closer look at Chart 1 shows how the once flattened curve has been increasing at a higher rate since late June.

Chart 2 shows that, based on the five-day rolling averages, the growth of new COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan continues to increase, with a noticeable uptick particularly in Wayne County. On July 4, Wayne County’s numbers reached 10,514, an increase of 199 new cases since July 1. Detroit, which continues to have the highest overall number of cases, reported 11,697 COVID cases on July 4. Oakland County reported 9,081 cases and Macomb County reported 7,315.

The City of Detroit had 1,744 COVID cases per 100,000 people as of July 6, an increase from 1,741 on July 5(Chart 3). This is based upon a reported increase of 19 new COVID cases between July 5 and July 6, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 11,728. Wayne County reported 982 cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County had 725 cases per 100,000 people. These per capita rates were based upon 10,578 total cases for Wayne and for 9,123 Oakland. Macomb County reported 840 cases per 100,000 people, which is based upon 7,339 cases.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State. Additionally, the case totals do not reflect the number of people who have recovered, just those who have been infected. In early June the State changed how it reports its data on the website, making data more accurate in the long-term but more complicated to track as well. The State regularly updates older data and as we continue to publish regular updates on COVID the State’s changes to past data many not always be reflected in our posts. The data published in new posts is accurate for the day we received it on though.

On July 6, the State of Michigan reported a total of 66,173 cases, an increase of 297 cases from the day prior. In terms of the number of new daily cases, the 297 new COVID cases reported on July 6 is a decrease from the 543 new cases reported on July 5. Of the new 297 new COVID cases, 97 were documented in Southeastern Michigan. In total, 33 percent of the new COVID cases were in Southeastern Michigan, meaning case numbers are increasing at a higher rate outside of the region than locally. In Chart 1 we show that the State total for the number of COVID cases on July 4 was 65,346–a five-day rolling average. The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report. A closer look at Chart 1 shows how the once flattened curve has been increasing at a higher rate since late June.

Chart 2 shows that, based on the five-day rolling averages, the growth of new COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan continues to increase, with a noticeable uptick particularly in Wayne County. On July 4, Wayne County’s numbers reached 10,514, an increase of 199 new cases since July 1. Detroit, which continues to have the highest overall number of cases, reported 11,697 COVID cases on July 4. Oakland County reported 9,081 cases and Macomb County reported 7,315.

The City of Detroit had 1,744 COVID cases per 100,000 people as of July 6, an increase from 1,741 on July 5(Chart 3). This is based upon a reported increase of 19 new COVID cases between July 5 and July 6, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 11,728. Wayne County reported 982 cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County had 725 cases per 100,000 people. These per capita rates were based upon 10,578 total cases for Wayne and for 9,123 Oakland. Macomb County reported 840 cases per 100,000 people, which is based upon 7,339 cases.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State. Additionally, the case totals do not reflect the number of people who have recovered, just those who have been infected. In early June the State changed how it reports its data on the website, making data more accurate in the long-term but more complicated to track as well. The State regularly updates older data and as we continue to publish regular updates on COVID the State’s changes to past data many not always be reflected in our posts. The data published in new posts is accurate for the day we received it on though.

In Chart 6, the five-day rolling average for the number of deaths in Michigan, shows the number of deaths in the State of Michigan continued to slowly inch toward 6,000. On July 4, the cumulative deaths were 5,970 deaths (an increase of 6 deaths from the day prior). The actual cumulative COVID-19 deaths on July 6 was 5,975, an increase of 3 deaths from the prior day.  Of the 3 deaths that were reported on July 6, all of them occurred in Southeastern Michigan.

Chart 7 (a 5-day rolling average) further hones in on how majority of the COVID deaths in Michigan have occurred, and continue to occur, in Southeastern Michigan. On July 4, the City of Detroit reported 1,445 deaths, the same number it reported the day prior. Wayne County had the second highest total at 1,164 deaths on July 4.

The per capita rates for the number of total COVID deaths in Southeastern Michigan continues to remain stagnant across the region as counties, and the City of Detroit, experience zero to minimal increases in COVID death numbers. Detroit reported 215 total COVID deaths per 100,000 people on July 6, which was equivalent to 1,445 deaths. Wayne County reported a per capita rate of 108 (1,166 deaths), Macomb County reported a per capita rate of 101 (882 deaths) and Oakland County reported a per capita rate of 83 (1,049 deaths). The State of Michigan reported a per capita rate for the number of total COVID deaths at 60 per 100,000 people, which was equivalent to 5,975  total deaths.

Chart 9, the five day rolling average of deaths, shows the number of new statewide deaths was reported at 6 on July 4. Furthermore, Chart 10 and Chart 10.1 shows how the number of deaths in Southeastern Michigan continues to remain low but also how the region is the largest contributor to the number of Statewide deaths. Chart 10.1 shows a more in-depth look at the number of new daily COVID deaths in the last month so viewers can better discern where in the Southeastern Michigan the numbers are increasing, decreasing or remaining the same. Macomb, Washtenaw and Wayne counties each reported 1 new death on July 4; these were the only new deaths reported in the region. As Chart 10.1 highlights, no more than 7 new daily deaths have been reported since June 1, and those numbers have dropped even lower in recent weeks.

In Map 3, Wayne County had the highest average number of daily COVID deaths between June 25 and July 2 at 2.5 and Macomb County averaged 2.4. Detroit and Oakland County were the only other two regional entities that averaged more than 1 death during that time frame. Detroit averaged 1.8 COVID deaths between June 25 and July 2 and Oakland County averaged 1.1.

Chart 11 shows the overall fatality rates for Detroit, the counties that make up Southeastern Michigan and the State of Michigan. This large scale look shows that fatality rates continued to rise until about May and have remained fairly stagnant—generally within a percentage point—since then. On July 6 the State’s fatality rate was 9.3 percent and Detroit’s, which continues to be the highest, was 12.3 percent. While these fatality rates haven’t shown large signs of change, they are slowly decreasing throughout the region, except in St. Clair County.

Chart 11.1 shows the fatality rate for just the month of July with the cumulative number of new cases and deaths for only this month. This chart was created in recognition that case and death numbers are lower than they were even a month ago and to highlight how even if case numbers spike death numbers continue to remain low. Using only July cumulative data for the new number of cases and deaths, Detroit continues to have the highest fatality rate at 9 percent and Washtenaw County has the second highest at 1.8 percent. The fatality rate for the State was 1 percent on July 6.

Michigan COVID numbers continue to increase by more than 200 cases a day over the last week, with a spike even higher likely to come after parties such as the one at Diamond Lake in Cass County took place. But, while the public continues ease up on following regulations meant to slow the spread of COVID, daily death numbers show that officials are gaining a better understanding on how to fight the disease once it is contracted. However, just because we are understanding the disease more does not mean it is any less of a threat. As has been noted since the beginning, COVID spreads quickly and if safety regulations are not followed we are at risk of seeing daily COVID case and death numbers rise.

Higher Rate of Females with COVID in Michigan

In the State of Michigan females are testing positive for coronavirus at a higher rate than males, according to the data from the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services. As of July 5, 65,876 COVID cases were reported Statewide, and of those 34,387–or 52 percent–were reported in the female population. In the maps below, we show the number of COVID cases per million by county and the City of Detroit in Southeastern Michigan for both the female and male populations. While the maps reflect data from late June they still highlight trends of areas that are being hit harder than others; this post simply narrows in on that through a gender lens.

The first map above shows that the City of Detroit had the highest per capita rate for the number of females who tested positive for COVID. According to the data, there were 18,523 females per million who tested positive. This was the highest per capita rate in the region. As of July 5 there were 6,518 females who tested positive in Detroit. The second map above shows that, on a per capita basis, Detroit also had the highest rate of males testing positive for COVID. According to the data, there were 16,024 males per million people in the City of Detroit who tested positive for COVID in late June. As of July 5, there were 5,117 males in Detroit who tested positive. In Detroit, females are testing positive for COVID at a rate 1.2 times higher than males. Overall, the City of Detroit had 11,709 cumulative positive COVID cases on July 5.  

Wayne County had the second highest per capita rate of females and males who tested positive for COVID. According to the data there were 10,176 females per million who tested positive and 7,988 males per million who tested positive. On July 5, there were 6,009 females who tested positive for COVID in Wayne County and 4,495 males; females are testing positive for COVID at a rate 1.3 times higher than males.

Livingston County had the lowest per capita rates of both females and males affected by COVID; it also has the lowest numbers of individuals who have tested positive for the virus. According to the data, Livingston County had 2,548 females per million who tested positive for COVID; as of July 5 there were 260 total females who tested positive. For the male population in Livingston County, there were 2,003 per million who tested positive. On July 5 there were 214 total males in Livingston County who tested positive for COVID. Females are testing positive for COVID at a rate 1.2 times higher than males in Livingston County. Overall, there were 473 cumulative COVID cases reported in Livingston County on July 5. 

As noted above, this post was intended to show the gender distribution of COVID in Southeastern Michigan. And, while the data does show women are testing positive for COVID at a higher rate than males, this post also further highlights how the City of Detroit is being affected by the virus at a higher rate than other areas in the State no matter what way you look at the data. 

While per capita rates are used as a statistical measurement to show how certain indicators or events are affecting various places despite the varying population numbers, we know that Detroit has the highest number of cases at the municipal level statewide. We also know, as shown in our last post, that the black population is being disproportionately affected by COVID and the City of Detroit has the highest black population in the State. 

The first map above shows that the City of Detroit, cumulatively, had the highest per capita rate for the number of females who tested positive for COVID. According to the data 18,523 females per million had tested positive. This was the highest per capita rate in the region. As of July 5 6,518 females had tested positive in Detroit. The second map above shows that, on a per capita basis, Detroit also had the highest rate of males testing positive for COVID. According to the data, there were 16,024 males per million people in the City of Detroit who tested positive for COVID in late June. As of July 5, there were 5,117 males in Detroit who tested positive. In Detroit, females are testing positive for COVID at a rate 1.2 times higher than males. Overall, the City of Detroit had 11,709 cumulative positive COVID cases on July 5.  

Wayne County had the second highest per capita rate of females and males who tested positive for COVID. According to the data there were 10,176 females per million who tested positive and 7,988 males per million who tested positive. On July 5, there had been 6,009 females who tested positive for COVID in Wayne County and 4,495 males; females are testing positive for COVID at a rate 1.3 times higher than males.

Livingston County had the lowest per capita rates of both females and males affected by COVID; it also has the lowest numbers of individuals who have tested positive for the virus. According to the data, Livingston County had 2,548 females per million who tested positive for COVID; as of July 5 there were 260 total females who tested positive. For the male population in Livingston County, there were 2,003 per million who tested positive. On July 5 there were 214 total males in Livingston County who tested positive for COVID. Females are testing positive for COVID at a rate 1.2 times higher than males in Livingston County. Overall, there were 473 cumulative COVID cases reported in Livingston County on July 5. 

As noted above, this post was intended to show the gender distribution of COVID in Southeastern Michigan. And, while the data does show women are testing positive for COVID at a higher rate than males, this post also further highlights how the City of Detroit is being affected by the virus at a higher rate than other areas in the State no matter what way you look at the data.  While per capita rates are used as a statistical measurement to show how certain indicators or events are affecting various places despite the varying population numbers, we know that Detroit has the highest number of cases at the municipal level statewide. We also know, as shown in our last post, that the black population is being disproportionately affected by COVID and the City of Detroit has the highest black

Michigan COVID Numbers Continue to Rise

On July 2, the State of Michigan reported a total of 64,675 cases, an increase of 534 cases from the day prior. The daily total was equivalent to 648 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 4). Of those 534 cases, 219 were documented in Southeastern Michigan. In total, 41 percent of the new COVID cases were in Southeastern Michigan, meaning case numbers are increasing at a higher rate outside of the region than locally. In Chart 1 we show that the State total for the number of COVID cases on  June 30 was 63,887–a five-day rolling average. The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report. A closer look at Chart 1 shows how the once flattened curve is spiking upward again.

Chart 2 shows that, based on the five-day rolling averages, the growth of new COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan continues to increase but at a slower rate that of the entire State. On June 30, the number of cases in Detroit reached 11,580, the highest in the region. Wayne County’s numbers reached 10,315 on June 30, Oakland County reported 8,899 cases and Macomb County reported 7,173.

The City of Detroit had 1,730 COVID cases per 100,000 people as of July 2, an increase from 1,724 on July 1(Chart 3). This is based upon a reported increase of 40 new COVID cases between July 1 and July 2, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 11,638. Wayne County reported 967 cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County had 714 cases per 100,000 people. These per capita rates were based upon 10,409 total cases for Wayne and for 8,980 Oakland. Macomb County reported 827 cases per 100,000 people, which is based upon 7,228 cases.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State. Additionally, the case totals do not reflect the number of people who have recovered, just those who have been infected. In early June the State changed how it reports its data on the website, making data more accurate in the long-term but more complicated to track as well. The State regularly updates older data and as we continue to publish regular updates on COVID the State’s changes to past data many not always be reflected in our posts. The data published in new posts is accurate for the day we received it on though.

Chart 4 shows that Wayne County continues to report the highest number of daily cases, according to the five-day rolling average, at 35 on June 30. Detroit and Macomb County each reported 22 new daily cases while Oakland County reported 31. The chart shows that the number of new daily cases in the last several days is higher than what was reported in mid-June.

On July 2, the per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people was 5 for the State, which was equivalent to 543 new cases. The last time similar numbers were reported at the State level was May 31. On July 2, Detroit and Wayne County were the only local government entities in the region to have a higher per capita rate than the State. Wayne County reported 7 new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people on July 2, which was equivalent to 76 new cases and Detroit reported a per capita rate of 6, which was equivalent to 40 new cases. Oakland County reported a per capita rate of 5 and Macomb County reported a per capita rate of 4, these rates were equivalent to 58 and 34 new cases, respectively. In Southeastern Michigan there were 219 new COVID cases reported on July 2.

In Chart 6, the five-day rolling average for the number of deaths in Michigan, shows the number of deaths in the State of Michigan is increasing at a much lower rate than the number of new COVID cases. On June 30 the cumulative deaths were 5,938 deaths (an increase of 12 deaths from the day prior). The actual cumulative COVID-19 deaths on July 2 was 5,966, an increase of 14 deaths from the prior day.  Of the 14 deaths that were reported on July 2, 8 occurred in Southeastern Michigan. Additionally, 13 of the those 14 deaths were added on to the July 2 total as a result of comparing death records with the COVID database.

Chart 7 (a 5-day rolling average) echoes the message the statewide data is conveying regarding COVID deaths in Michigan-they are occurring at minimal rates and mostly in Southeastern Michigan. On June 30 the City of Detroit reported 1,441 deaths, an increase of 1 death from the day prior. Wayne County had the second highest total at 1,158 deaths on June 30.

The per capita rates for the number of total COVID deaths in Southeastern Michigan continues to remain fairly stagnant across the region as counties, and the City of Detroit experience zero to minimal increases in COVID death numbers. Detroit reported 215 total COVID deaths per 100,000 people on July 2, which was equivalent to 1,445 deaths. Wayne County reported a per capita rate of 108 (1,163 deaths), Macomb County reported a per capita rate of 110 (880 deaths) and Oakland County reported a per capita rate of 83 (1,049 deaths). The State of Michigan reported a per capita rate for the number of total COVID deaths at 60 per 100,000 people, which was equivalent to 5,966  total deaths.

Chart 9, the five day rolling average of deaths, shows the number of new statewide deaths was reported at 12 on June 30. Furthermore, Chart 10 shows how the number of deaths in Southeastern Michigan continues to remain low but also how the region is the largest contributor to the number of Statewide deaths. Macomb and Wayne counties each reported 2 new deaths on June 30, and Detroit and Oakland and Washtenaw counties reported 1; the other counties in the region reported 0. These numbers are based on 5-day rolling averages.

Detroit and Macomb County were the only two government entities in Southeastern Michigan to maintain a fatality rate above 12 percent as of July 2. Detroit’s fatality rate was 12.4 percent and Macomb County’s was 12.2 percent. The fatality rate continues to decline, it was reported at 9.2 percent on July 2.

While COVID death numbers remaining low is encouraging, the fact that the number of new daily cases continues to increase is just the opposite. With 534 new COVID cases reported on July 2, the highest number since May 31, cause for concern also continues to increase. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has also seen the increasing number of new daily cases as a risk to public health, which is why she recently ordered indoor bars to close throughout most of Michigan.

With the holiday weekend here and case numbers rising it is vital that citizens continue to remain distant from others, wear masks, regularly wash their hands and stay home if they feel sick. As has been seen with examples such as the one coming out of an East Lansing bar, one infected person in a crowded area with little to no protection can cause a major outbreak, putting the public at a greater risk.

Michigan Not Immune to Climbing Daily COVID Numbers

On June 29, the State of Michigan reported a total of 63,497 cases, an increase of 236 cases from the day prior. The daily total was equivalent to 636 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 4). Of those 236 cases, 86 were documented in Southeastern Michigan. In total, 36 percent of the new COVID cases were in Southeastern Michigan, meaning case numbers are increasing at a higher rate outside of the region than locally. In Chart 1 we show that the State total for the number of COVID cases on  June 27 was 62,954–a five-day rolling average. The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report. A look at Chart 1 further reflects the higher number of new daily COVID cases than in the previous weeks.

Chart 2 shows that, based on the five-day rolling averages, the growth of new COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan continues to increase but at a slower rate than previously, and at a slower rate than that of the entire State. A close look at the chart though shows a noticeable recent uptick in COVID numbers for Oakland and Wayne counties. On June 27 the number of cases in Oakland County reached 8,809, and in Wayne County 10,210 COVID cases were reported. Detroit reached 11,524 cases, the highest in the region, and Macomb County reported 7,106 cases.

The City of Detroit had 1,716 COVID cases per 100,000 people as of June 29, an increase from 1,714 on June 28 (Chart 3). This is based upon a reported increase of 13 new COVID cases between June 28 and June 29, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 11,593. Wayne County reported 953 cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County had 704 cases per 100,000 people. These per capita rates were based upon 10,264 total cases for Wayne and for 8,848 Oakland. Macomb County reported 817 cases per 100,000 people, which is based upon 7,136 cases.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State. Additionally, the case totals do not reflect the number of people who have recovered, just those who have been infected. In early June the State changed how it reports its data on the website, making data more accurate in the long-term but more complicated to track as well. The State regularly updates older data and as we continue to publish regular updates on COVID the State’s changes to past data many not always be reflected in our posts. The data published in new posts is accurate for the day we received it on though.

Chart 4 shows that Wayne County reported the highest number of daily cases, according to the five-day rolling average, at 46 on June 27. Detroit reported 15 new daily cases while Macomb and Oakland counties each reported numbers higher than Detroit. Oakland County reported 29 new COVID cases on June 27 and Macomb County reported 24 new cases. In the last four days Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties saw the number of new daily COVID cases nearly double, or more, from what was being reported just a week ago.

Map 1 shows the average number of new daily COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan between June 18 and June 25. Wayne County had the highest average of daily confirmed COVID cases last week at 21.8 and Detroit had the second highest average at 17.5. On June 27 though five day rolling average data (Chart 4) showed that new daily COVID numbers had increased by more than double for some counties, particularly Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties. On June 27 Wayne County reported 46 new cases while last week’s average was 21.8 new cases. For Oakland County there was an average of 11.4 new daily COVID cases between June 18-25 and the June 27 five-day rolling average was 29. In Macomb County, last week’s average for the number of new daily COVID cases was 10 and on June 27 the five-day rolling average showed that number increased to 24.Unlike the Metro-Detroit counties, the City of Detroit did not  experience a major spike in the number of new COVID cases between yesterday and last week. Last week’s average number of new COVID cases for Detroit was 18 (Map 1) and in Chart 4 we report that the number was 15.

On June 29, the per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people was 2 for the State, which was equivalent to 236 new cases. On June 29, Wayne County was the only local municipality to have a higher per capita rate than the State. Wayne County reported 3 new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people on June 29, which was equivalent to 27 new cases. Detroit and Macomb, Oakland and Washtenaw counties each reported 2 new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people. For Detroit, this per capita rate was equivalent to 13 new cases on June 29, and for Macomb and Oakland counties that rate was equivalent to 18 and 25 new cases, respectively. In Southeastern Michigan there were 86 new COVID cases reported on June 29, an increase from the 24 new COVID cases reported over the weekend for the region.

Map 2 reflects similar data to Map 1 but on a per capita basis (per 100,000 people). We once again see that the data reported on June 29 is higher than the per capita averages for June 18-25 for most of Southeastern Michigan.

In Chart 6, the five-day rolling average for the number of deaths in Michigan, shows the number of deaths is increasing at a minimal rate. On June 27 there were 5,902 deaths (an increase of 2 deaths from the day prior). The actual cumulative COVID-19 deaths on June 29 was 5,915, an increase of 4 deaths from the prior day.  Two of the deaths that were reported on June 29 occurred in Southeastern Michigan, one in Detroit and the other in Wayne County (outside of Detroit). Confused again

Chart 7 (a 5-day rolling average) echoes the message the statewide data is conveying regarding COVID deaths in Michigan-they are occurring at minimal rates and mostly in Southeastern Michigan. On June 27 the City of Detroit reported 1,438 deaths, an increase of 1 death from the day prior. Wayne County had the second highest total at 1,151 deaths on June 27.

The per capita rates for the number of total COVID deaths in Southeastern Michigan remained the same for each entity in Southeastern Michigan on June 29 for at least the last four days, if not longer. Detroit reported 214 total COVID deaths per 100,000 people, which was equivalent to 1,439 deaths. Wayne County reported a per capita rate of 107 (1,153 deaths), Macomb County reported a per capita rate of 100 (870 deaths) and Oakland County reported a per capita rate of 83 (1,043 deaths). Each county in Southeastern Michigan, and the City of Detroit, have experienced no increase to minimal increases in the per capita rates for the number of total COVID deaths for the last several weeks.

The State of Michigan reported a per capita rate for the number of total COVID deaths at 59 per 100,000 people, which was equivalent to 5,915 total deaths.

Chart 9, the five day rolling average of deaths, shows the number of new statewide deaths was reported at 9 on June 27. Furthermore, Chart 10 shows how the number of deaths in Southeastern Michigan continues to decline. Detroit and Macomb and Wayne counties each reported 2 new deaths on June 27 and Oakland County reported 1; the other counties in the region reported 0. These numbers are based on 5-day rolling averages.

Map 3, below, shows the average number of new deaths for Southeastern Michigan between June 18-25. According to the data, no county in the region other than Oakland County reported even an average of one new death last week. Oakland County reported an average of 1.3 deaths between June 18-25 and the City of Detroit reported an average of 1.4 deaths, which was the highest in the region. Macomb County reported an average of 0.3 death last week while Wayne County reported an average of 0.8.

The fatality rates for the State of Michigan and Wayne County are slowly starting to decline while the fatality rates for the City of Detroit and Macomb and Oakland counties have remained stable. Detroit continues to report the highest fatality rate at 12.5 percent while the State’s fatality rate has decreased to 9.3 percent and Wayne County’s rate has decreased to 11.3 percent. To a great extent these numbers are now determined by past totals that dominate the calculations.

The New York Times has created a national map of new daily COVID numbers at the county level, showing how the numbers increase, decrease or remain flat over a 2 week period. As has been shown in this post, counties in Southeastern Michigan-such as Macomb, Monroe, Oakland, St. Clair and Wayne counties-are experiencing a slight increase in new daily numbers. A number of out-state counties are experiencing very large increases. But, as the NYT map shows, counties throughout the country, particularly in the South and Southwest, are seeing large increases in the number of COVID cases. Increases have been linked to people not wearing masks nor adhering to social distancing rules. People are socializing in large groups where few people wear masks showing little regard to health and safety regulations set forth by the Centers for Disease Control. Let’s keep Michigan out of the ranks of states with large increases. Wear a mask and social distance!

Wayne County’s Black Community has Highest Per Capita Rate of Positive COVID Tests

As the coronavirus numbers are increasing once again in Michigan-over the weekend we saw new case numbers increase by 641 over two days bringing the State’s total count to 63,261-we must also better understand what populations this disease is hitting the hardest. The State of Michigan breaks down demographic data for those who have tested positive for COVID by race, gender and age. In this post we examine the race data for Southeastern Michigan and later this week we will examine the gender data. The four maps in this post examine the race data for are the black, white, Asian American/Pacific Islander, and Native American populations.

According to the data, 31 percent of those who have tested positive for COVID in Michigan are black, with the highest concentration per capita in Southeastern Michigan being in Wayne County (black individuals make up 14 percent of Michigan’s population). There are 17,042 per million black individuals who have tested positive for COVID in Wayne County, this is equivalent to 2,851 black individuals. For the City of Detroit, where the overall number of black individuals who have tested positive for COVID is the highest, there were 12,526 black individuals per million who tested positive. The Detroit per capita rate is equivalent to 6,906 black individuals who tested positive for COVID.  Overall, 35 percent of the State’s black community who has tested positive for COVID lives in Detroit. In Southeastern Michigan, Livingston County has the lowest concentration of black individuals who tested positive for COVID. According to the data, there are 4,276 black individuals per million who tested positive, which is equivalent to 8 total black individuals.

When examining the white population in Michigan, 24,933 individuals have tested positive for COVID, which is 39 percent of the population (79 percent of Michigan’s population is white). In the second map below, the data shows that per capita (per million) Detroit has the highest number of white individuals who have tested positive for COVID at 6,370, which is equivalent to 615 total white individuals. In total, Wayne County has the highest number of white individuals in Southeastern Michigan who have tested positive for COVID at 4,371, this is equal to 4,713 white individuals per million. Oakland and Macomb counties also have more than 3,000 white individuals test positive for COVID. In Oakland County there are 3,799 white individuals who have tested for COVID and in Macomb County there are 3,299 white individuals who have tested for COVID. These raw numbers are equivalent to 3,830 and 4,471 white individuals per million, respectively.

The Asian American/Pacific Islander and Native American populations have been affected less by the coronavirus, in large part because those are smaller populations. However, per capita (per million) the number of those who have tested positive for COVID in those populations rivals, in some cases, those who have tested positive in the black and white populations. Map 3, which is the first map below, shows that in Macomb County there are 6,041 Asian American/Pacific Islander individuals who have tested positive for COVID, this is equivalent to 245 people. While Macomb County has the highest per capita rate of Asian American/Pacific Islander individuals who have tested positive for COVID, Oakland County has the highest total number of individuals at 317. Oakland County’s per capita rate of Asian American/Pacific Islanders who have tested positive for COVID is 2,919 per million.

For the Native American/Alaskan American majority of the counties in the region did not have enough data on this population to produce a per capita rate. But, of those that, did Oakland County has the highest per capita rate at 8,610 per million, which is equivalent to 47 total individuals.

The per capita rates discussed in this post show, in comparison, where the concentrations of positive COVID tests are among each population by race. By comparing the data amongst the maps we can see which county and which race has the highest concentration of positive COVID tests. As the first map showed, the black community in Wayne County has the highest per capita rate of individuals who have tested positive for COVID at 17,042 per million. As we know this far into the pandemic, COVID has disproportionately hit the black community in Michigan, and throughout the country.  Reasons attributed to this include lack of access to health care, denser living situations and a higher percentage of health disparities (heart disease and diabetes, amongst others) in the black community. Much of this is related to economic disparities amongst the black and white populations in Michigan, and beyond. In a future post we will also examine these disparities and how they impact Southeastern Michigan and the black community.

Michigan Continues to see Uptick in New COVID Cases

On June 25 the State of Michigan reported 353 new COVID-19 cases, which is the highest number of single day cases since May. While the recent new case number data remains under the peak number of new daily cases reported in April, when we were seeing numbers in the thousands, the State of Michigan is showing signs of an uptick.

On June 25, the State of Michigan reported a total of 62,306 cases, an increase of 353 cases from the day prior. The daily total was equivalent to 624 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 4). Of those 353 cases, 144 were documented in Southeastern Michigan. In total, 41 percent of the new COVID cases were in Southeastern Michigan, meaning case numbers are increasing at a higher rate outside of the region than locally. In Chart 1 we show that the State total for the number of COVID cases on  June 22 was 61,706–a five-day rolling average. The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report. A look at Chart 1 further reflects the recent uptick in new daily cases, showing a less flattened curve in the last few days.

Chart 2 shows that, based on the five-day rolling averages, the growth of new COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan continues to increase but at a slower rate than previously, and at a slower rate than that of the entire State. On June 23 the number of cases in Detroit reached 11,432, the highest in the region, and Wayne County reported the second highest number of cases at 10,006. On June 22, the five-day rolling average for the number of COVID cases in Oakland County was 8,692, and Macomb County reported 7,004.

The City of Detroit had 1,708 COVID cases per 100,000 people as of June 25, an increase from 1,699 on June 24 (Chart 3). This is based upon a reported increase of 24 new COVID cases between June 24 and June 25, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 11,492. Wayne County reported 936 cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County had 694 cases per 100,000 people. These per capita rates were based upon 10,081 total cases for Wayne and for 8,733 Oakland. Macomb County reported 806 cases per 100,000 people, which is based upon 7,047 cases.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State. Additionally, the case totals do not reflect the number of people who have recovered, just those who have been infected. In early June the State changed how it reports its data on the website, making data more accurate in the long-term but more complicated to track as well. The State regularly updates older data and as we continue to publish regular updates on COVID the State’s changes to past data many not always be reflected in our posts. The data published in new posts is accurate for the day we received it on though.

Chart 4 shows that Wayne County reported the highest number of daily cases, according to the five-day rolling average, at 27 on June 23. Detroit reported 23 new daily cases while Macomb and Oakland counties each reported 14. Each one of these five-day rolling average data points are higher than what has been reported in over a week, again showing signs that COVID numbers are increasing at a higher rate now than in recent weeks.

On June 25, the per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people was 4 for the State, which was equivalent to 353 new cases. On June 25, Detroit and Monroe County also had a per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people of 4. For the City of Detroit this per capita rate was equivalent to 24 new cases on June 25. Wayne County had the highest per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people in the region at 5; this was equivalent to 49 new cases. In Southeastern Michigan there were 144 new COVID cases reported on June 25, an increase from the 123 new COVID cases reported the day prior.

In Chart 6, the five-day rolling average for the number of deaths in Michigan shows how they have leveled off during the month of June, but continue to inch toward a total of 6,000 deaths. On June 23 there were 5,864 deaths (an increase of 9 deaths from the day prior). The actual cumulative COVID-19 deaths on June 25 was 5,887, an increase of 19 deaths from the prior day. Of those deaths that were reported on June 25, 14 were in Southeastern Michigan. So, while new COVID cases numbers are increasing at a higher rate outside of Southeastern Michigan, the region continues to account for majority of the deaths.

Chart 7 (a 5-day rolling average) further reflects how the number of deaths has leveled off in the State and Southeastern Michigan. On June 23 the City of Detroit reported 1,431 deaths, an increase of 2 deaths from the day prior. Wayne County had the second highest total at 1,143 deaths on June 23.

The per capita rates for the number of total COVID deaths in Southeastern Michigan remained the same for each entity, except Detroit, on June 25. Detroit reported 214 total COVID deaths per 100,000 people (a slight increase from a rate of 213 the day prior), which was equivalent to 1,438 deaths. Wayne County reported a per capita rate of 106 (1,145 deaths), Macomb County reported a per capita rate of 99 (863 deaths) and Oakland County reported a per capita rate of 82 (1,043 deaths). Each county in Southeastern Michigan, and the City of Detroit, have experienced no increase to minimal increases in the per capita rates for the number of total COVID deaths for the last several weeks.

The State of Michigan reported a per capita rate for the number of total COVID deaths at 59 per 100,000 people, which was equivalent to 5,887 total deaths.

Chart 9, the five day rolling average of deaths, shows the number of new statewide deaths was reported at 9 on June 23. Furthermore, Chart 10 shows how the number of deaths in Southeastern Michigan continues to decline. Detroit reported 2 new deaths on June 23 and Wayne County reported 1; the other counties in the region reported 0. These numbers are based on 5-day rolling averages.

For the State of Michigan, the City of Detroit and Macomb and Oakland counties the fatality rates have remained stable for the last two weeks. Detroit continues to report the highest fatality rate at 12.5 percent while the State’s fatality rate is 9.5 percent. Chart 11 also shows that the fatality rates for Wayne, Monroe and Livingston counties have also been decreasing.

Nationwide, several states are seeing some of the highest new daily COVID cases they have yet experienced. And, while Michigan’s numbers are lower than April, signs are pointing toward an upward trend statewide. This comes as the State is slowly beginning to re-open. However, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer did say Michigan is not ready to enter Stage 5 of the re-opening phase because there are still concerns of the virus spreading at a rapid pace. She has taken this decision as other states experience large daily spikes, and isolated hot spots continue to pop up in Michigan (such as a recent East Lansing incident). Currently, Michigan ranks ninth in the number of confirmed cases and sixth in the number of reported deaths linked to COVID-19.

Michigan COVID Numbers Experience Overall Decline, Spikes in Cases Continue Though

The number of COVID cases in Michigan has flattened over the last several months, but as daily data show new cases continue to be reported. On June 22, the State of Michigan reported a total of 61,609 cases, an increase of 179 cases from the day prior. The daily total was equivalent to 615 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 4). Of those 179 cases, 61 were documented in Southeastern Michigan. In total, 34 percent of the new COVID cases were in Southeastern Michigan, meaning case numbers are increasing at a higher rate outside of the region than locally. In Chart 1 we show that the State total for the number of COVID cases on  June 20 was 61,034–a five-day rolling average. The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report. This continues to be important as the State of Michigan regularly updates its past COVID data and not all State changes can continuously be updated here.

Chart 2 shows that, based on the five-day rolling averages, the growth of new COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan has been increasing at a much slower pace compared to previous months. However, Detroit and Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties continue to add cases. On June 20 the number of cases in Detroit reached 11,376, the highest in the region, and Wayne County reported the second highest number of cases at 9,946. On June 20, the five-day rolling average for the number of COVID cases in Oakland County was 8,864, and Macomb County reported 6,974.

The City of Detroit had 1,694 COVID cases per 100,000 people as of June 20, an increase from 1,692 on June 19 (Chart 3). This is based upon a reported increase of 13 new COVID cases since June 19, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 11,394. Wayne County reported 926 cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County had 690  cases per 100,000 people. These per capita rates were based upon 9,970 total cases for Wayne and for 8,674 Oakland. Macomb County reported 799 cases per 100,000 people, which is based upon 6,983 cases.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State. Additionally, the case totals do not reflect the number of people who have recovered, just those who have been infected. In early June the State changed how it reports its data on the website, making data more accurate in the long-term but more complicated to track as well. The State regularly updates older data and as we continue to publish regular updates on COVID the State’s changes to past data many not always be reflected in our posts. The data published in new posts is accurate for the day we received it on though.

Chart 4 shows that Wayne County reported the highest number of daily cases, according to the five-day rolling average, at 13 on June 20. Detroit reported 8 new daily cases while Oakland County reported 6 and Macomb County reported 3. As Map 1 shows, Detroit and Wayne and Macomb counties all reported a lower number of new daily cases on June 20 than what the average was for last week (June 11-18). For example, last week Detroit averaged 12 new COVID cases and on June 20 it reported 8. Oakland County though had an average of 0.6 new cases last week and reported 6 new cases on June 20 through 5-day rolling average calculations. So, while there are signs the number of new cases are declining regionally, the data also shows that nowhere is immune from having its numbers increase again.

On June 22, the per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people was 2 for the State, which was equivalent to 179 new cases. On June 22, Detroit and Monroe and Washtenaw counties all reported the same per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people as the State-2. Detroit’s per capita rate of 2 was equivalent to 13 new cases per 100,000 people, based on an actual number of cases. St. Clair County reported a per capita rate of 3 and the remaining counties all reported per capita rates of 1. Wayne County’s per capita rate of 1 was equivalent to 22 new cases, the highest in the region that day. The second map below (Map 2) shows that while Detroit’s per capita rate on June 22 is on par with its average rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people for the week of June 11-18, St. Clair County is experiencing higher numbers this week than last. St. Clair County had a per capita rate of 3 on June 22 and an average per capita rate of 0.8 last week.

Chart 4 shows that Wayne County reported the highest number of daily cases, according to the five-day rolling average, at 13 on June 20. Detroit reported 8 new daily cases while Oakland County reported 6 and Macomb County reported 3. As Map 1 shows, Detroit and Wayne and Macomb counties all reported a lower number of new daily cases on June 20 than what the average was for last week (June 11-18). For example, last week Detroit averaged 12 new COVID cases and on June 20 it reported 8. Oakland County though had an average of 0.6 new cases last week and reported 6 new cases on June 20 through 5-day rolling average calculations. So, while there are signs the number of new cases are declining regionally, the data also shows that nowhere is immune from having its numbers increase again.

On June 22, the per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people was 2 for the State, which was equivalent to 179 new cases. On June 22, Detroit and Monroe and Washtenaw counties all reported the same per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people as the State-2. Detroit’s per capita rate of 2 was equivalent to 13 new cases per 100,000 people, based on an actual number of cases. St. Clair County reported a per capita rate of 3 and the remaining counties all reported per capita rates of 1. Wayne County’s per capita rate of 1 was equivalent to 22 new cases, the highest in the region that day. The second map below (Map 2) shows that while Detroit’s per capita rate on June 22 is on par with its average rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people for the week of June 11-18, St. Clair County is experiencing higher numbers this week than last. St. Clair County had a per capita rate of 3 on June 22 and an average per capita rate of 0.8 last week.

In Chart 6, the five-day rolling average for the number of deaths in Michigan shows how they have leveled off during the month of June. On June 20 there were 5,837 deaths (an increase of 12 deaths from the day prior). The actual cumulative COVID-19 deaths on June 22 was 5,853, an increase of 7 deaths from the prior day. Of those deaths that occurred, 4 were in Southeastern Michigan.

Chart 7 (a 5-day rolling average) further reflects how the number of deaths has leveled off in the State and Southeastern Michigan. On June 20 the City of Detroit reported 1,428 deaths, and while it is still the highest number in the region, that number has only increased by 25 total deaths since June 8. Wayne County had the second highest total at 1,141 deaths on June 20; Wayne County had 1,120 deaths on June 8.

The per capita rates for the number of total COVID deaths in Southeastern Michigan remained the same for each entity on June 22; these rates have all remained the same since June 14. Detroit reported 212 total COVID deaths per 100,000 people (1,428 deaths), Wayne County reported a per capita rate of 106 (1,143 deaths), Macomb County reported a per capita rate of 99 (862 deaths) and Oakland County reported a per capita rate of 82 (1,037 deaths).

Chart 9, the five day rolling average of deaths, shows the number of new statewide deaths was reported at 12 on June 20,  an increase from the 11 new deaths reported the day before. While the number new statewide deaths did slightly increase on June 20, the overall number has not gone above 18 since June 10. In mid-April the number of new deaths in Michigan reached a peak at 145. Furthermore, Chart 10 shows how the number of deaths in Southeastern Michigan continues to decline, a trend we are eager to see continue. Oakland and Wayne counties each reported 1 new death, the highest in the region. These numbers are based on 5-day rolling averages. As the map below shows, Detroit and each county in the region experienced a decrease in the number of deaths from June 20 and the average number of deaths last week. Wayne County had the highest average number of deaths from the week of June 11 to 18 at 1.1, and on June 20 it was reported at 1. Detroit averaged 0.4 deaths last week and reported 0 new deaths on June 20.

While we know that the number of COVID cases and deaths has decreased throughout the month of June we also continue to see spikes in new cases periodically in different areas throughout the State. For example, note how majority of the number of new cases reported in Michigan on June 22 were from outside the State’s most populate region. Additionally, Southeastern Michigan has been the last area in the State to loosen restrictions. Overall, Michigan has experienced a recent uptick in the number of new cases. According to Mlive, the seven average for new COVID cases this week is 192 and last week it was 152. So, while the data shows that the curve has certainly flattened it also reflects how abiding by health recommendations set forth by the Centers for Disease Control plays a large role in flattening that curve.

COVID Puts Digital Divide on Display

There is a digital divide across the State of Michigan and across the country, largely related to  socioeconomic factors. As the coronavirus hit the US that divide grew even wider as access to public and private places that normally provide amenities such as the internet and computers were shuttered. The divide also grew as students had to finish the school year from home, and thousands were left without computers or internet access. While schools had printed resources available to ensure students could complete the school year, the access to the digital world-or lack thereof-was substantial. 

In the State of Michigan Detroit Public Schools had the highest number of households without internet access–82,894, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The second highest number in Michigan was the Flint School District which had 14,221 households without internet access. Looking only at Southeastern Michigan, Utica Community Schools had the second highest number of homes without internet access (behind Detroit) at 7,181 homes. There were 5 times as many households in the Detroit Public Schools district without internet access than in the Flint School District and 11 times as many households in Detroit Public Schools than in Utica Community Schools without internet access. Detroit Public Schools is the largest district in the State. 

While Detroit Public Schools is the largest district in the State it also provides education to students who live in some of the lowest median income households in the State. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, 47 percent of children in Detroit live below the poverty level. On the other end of the spectrum, Northville Public Schools is the wealthiest school district in the State with 1.4 percent of children living in poverty, according to the Census Bureau. There were only 755 homes within Northville Public Schools that did not have access to the internet. 

As the Statewide map shows (below), the majority of the districts throughout Michigan had less than 2,400 homes without internet access. For several smaller districts, such as those throughout the northern part of the lower peninsula and all those in the upper peninsula and the west side of the State, the lower numbers are understandable due to the smaller number of students in districts. But, what stands out is the districts on the map that are red, orange or blue. These larger urban areas including Flint, Grand Rapids and Lansing were all in the districts with the higher numbers of households without internet access.

The second map shows a more concentrated look at Southeastern Michigan. This highlights how several school districts closer to Detroit also had a higher number of homes without internet access. Some of these are also low or moderate income communities. For example, the lower half of Macomb County, which is more urban and densely populated, has four school districts where between about 7,200 and 14,000 households do not have access to the internet. 

According to the article “The Effects of Home Computers on Educational

Outcomes: Evidence from a Field Experiment with Community College Students” published in The Economic Journal, access to computers and the internet improves students’ skills to getting school work completed, which in turn improves educational outcomes. The Skillman Foundation, DTE Energy, General Motors and Quicken Loans have all worked to provide laptops to Detroit Public Schools students in need throughout this pandemic. Additionally, companies such as Comcast have opened their hotspots for more widespread internet access. However, the coronavirus has shed light on many different socioeconomic issues.  The digital divide and its impact on distance learning is certainly one of them.

Internet access has arguably come close to a fundamental need for many day-to-day functions, including for schoolwork.  The recognized need for the internet to aide in school work is supported by the recent partnerships, discussed above, with universities and corporations to provide access to those without it in the Detroit Public Schools district. Furthermore, in Kalamazoo, where 5,191 homes are without access in the public school district, a similar partnership was developed with the City through its Foundation for Aspirational Excellence Fund. This fund is supported through the City, the school district, the Kalamazoo Community Foundation and the Kalamazoo Promise. The director of the Kalamazoo Promise, Von Washington Jr., was recently quoted in MLive saying how the recent closure of public schools “exacerbated the educational inequities that are present in our community.”

As non-profits and corporations step up to, at least temporarily, fill the gap in internet access to ensure students can continue to learn, we must also ask what other ways the internet has become essential, especially during a pandemic. During the pandemic online doctors appointments were often the only access to medical care. Working remotely was mandated in many workplaces. Buying goods and groceries, via the internet has become a new way of life. Access to the internet has become so useful-even essential-in everyday life functions the United Nations passed a resolution in 2016 declaring it a human right. The partnerships discussed above related to the concerns of internet access for education equity also highlights how, at least nationally, more and more attention is being focused on the need for broadband access no matter where or who you are. Whether or not everyone will have access in the near future, and how that access will be supported-through public or private dollars, or combination of both-remains to be fully addressed though.

COVID Numbers Drop Over the Weekend in Southeastern Michigan

According to the State of Michigan, the total number of COVID cases in Michigan rose to 58,870  on June 7, an increase of 121 cases from the previous day. The daily total was equivalent to 589 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 4). Of those 121 cases, 5 were documented in Southeastern Michigan. In Chart 1 we show that the State total for the number of COVID cases on  June 5 was 58,484–a five-day rolling average. The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report.

Chart 2 shows that, based on the five-day rolling averages, the growth of new COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan has continued to increase at a slower pace. On June 5, the number of cases in Detroit reached 11,123, the highest in the region, and Wayne County reported the second highest number of cases at 9,482. On June 5, the five-day rolling average for the number of COVID cases in Oakland County was 8,447, and Macomb County reported 6,819.

The City of Detroit had 1,664 COVID cases per 100,000 people as of June 5, an increase from 1,657 on June 5 (Chart 3). This is based upon a reported increase of 52 new COVID cases since June 5, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 11,196. Wayne County reported 880 cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County had 671  cases per 100,000 people. These per capita rates were based upon 9,474 total cases for Wayne and for 8,438 Oakland. Macomb County reported 777 cases per 100,000 people, which is based upon 6,790 cases.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State. Additionally, the case totals do not reflect the number of people who have recovered, just those who have been infected.

According to the State of Michigan, the total number of COVID cases in Michigan rose to 58,870  on June 7, an increase of 121 cases from the previous day. The daily total was equivalent to 589 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 4). Of those 121 cases, 5 were documented in Southeastern Michigan. In Chart 1 we show that the State total for the number of COVID cases on  June 5 was 58,484–a five-day rolling average. The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report.

Chart 2 shows that, based on the five-day rolling averages, the growth of new COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan has continued to increase at a slower pace. On June 5, the number of cases in Detroit reached 11,123, the highest in the region, and Wayne County reported the second highest number of cases at 9,482. On June 5, the five-day rolling average for the number of COVID cases in Oakland County was 8,447, and Macomb County reported 6,819.

The City of Detroit had 1,664 COVID cases per 100,000 people as of June 5, an increase from 1,657 on June 5 (Chart 3). This is based upon a reported increase of 52 new COVID cases since June 5, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 11,196. Wayne County reported 880 cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County had 671  cases per 100,000 people. These per capita rates were based upon 9,474 total cases for Wayne and for 8,438 Oakland. Macomb County reported 777 cases per 100,000 people, which is based upon 6,790 cases.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State. Additionally, the case totals do not reflect the number of people who have recovered, just those who have been infected.

In Chart 6, the five-day rolling average for the number of deaths in Michigan shows a continuing slow increase (a lagged number of 5,618 deaths, an increase of 12 deaths). The actual reported COVID-19 deaths on June 7 was 5,656, an increase of 4 deaths from the day prior. All of those deaths occurred in Southeastern Michigan, 3 in Detroit and 1 in Wayne County.

Chart 7 (a 5-day rolling average) portrays how Detroit continues to report the highest cumulative number of deaths at 1,391 on June 5. Wayne County had the second highest total at 1,110 on June 5.

Reflective of the trend, we saw with the per capita rates earlier in this post, many of them in Southeastern Michigan remained the same due to no or minimal increases in the number of deaths over the weekend. Detroit reported 208 COVID deaths per 100,000 people on June 7, which was equivalent to 1,398 deaths (an increase of 3 from the day before). Wayne County reported 104 COVID deaths per 100,000 people on June 7, which was equivalent to 1,116 total deaths (an increase of 1 from the day prior).

Chart 9, the five day rolling average of deaths,  shows the number of new statewide deaths was reported at 12 on June 5, a continued decline over the last several days. Furthermore, Chart 10 shows how the number of deaths in Southeastern Michigan  also either remained stagnant or declined. Detroit and Macomb, Oakland and Wayne counties all reported new deaths. Detroit and Wayne County each reported 4 and Macomb and Oakland counties each reported 3 new deaths. These numbers are based on 5-day rolling averages.

With the stagnation of the number of new cases and deaths over the weekend, the fatality rates in Southeastern Michigan also remained the same, as did the State’s rate. For the nineteenth day in a row the State reported a fatality rate of 9.6 percent. Detroit reported a fatality rate of 12.5 percent.

One reason we may be seeing such high fatality rates in Michigan is due to the low testing rates. When only having-presumably-a lower of number confirmed COVID cases than is actually likely due to the limited availability of tests, the fatality rate appears higher because the base comparison is smaller than it might be.

This posts shows how there were few new COVID cases and deaths reported over the weekend. We do know that the number of cases and deaths has been declining over the last few weeks. However, the Detroit Free Press reported that a Michigan Department of Health and Human Services representative said that Sundays are typically when the lowest numbers are reported. Additionally, the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services has changed how they report the data visually and is now displaying confirmed and probable cases.

Southeastern Michigan Documents 97 new COVID Cases on June 4

According to the State of Michigan, the total number of COVID cases in Michigan rose to 58,241  on June 4, an increase of 206 cases from the previous day. The daily total was equivalent to 583 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 4). Of those 206 cases, 97 were documented in Southeastern Michigan, which was equal to 47 percent of the new cases. In Chart 1 we show that the State total for the number of COVID cases on  June 2 was 57,787–a five-day rolling average. The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report.

Chart 2 shows that, based on the five-day rolling averages, the growth of new COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan is only minimally increasing. On June 3 the number of cases in Detroit reached 11,075, the highest in the region, and Wayne County reported the second highest number of cases at 9,417. On June 3, the five-day rolling average for the number of COVID cases in Oakland County was 8,416, and Macomb County reported 6,783.

The City of Detroit had 1,653 COVID cases per 100,000 people as of June 4, an increase from 1,649 the day before (Chart 3). This is based upon a reported increase of 25 new COVID cases, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 11,116. Wayne County reported 880 cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County had 671  cases per 100,000 people. These per capita rates were based upon 9,474 total cases for Wayne and for 8,438 Oakland. Macomb County reported 777 cases per 100,000 people, which is based upon 6,790 cases.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State. Additionally, the case totals do not reflect the number of people who have recovered, just those who have been infected.

Chart 4 shows that Detroit reported the highest number of daily cases, according to the five-day rolling average, at 36 on June 2. Macomb County reported 33 new COVID cases and Wayne County reported 31.

On June 4, the per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people was 2 for the State, which was equivalent to 206 new cases. This was a decrease from the day before. Detroit and Livingston County both reported per capita rates higher than the State, each reporting 4 new COVID deaths per 100,000 people. For Detroit this was equivalent to 25 new COVID deaths and for Livingston County this was equivalent to 7. On June 4, Macomb and Wayne Counties each reported 2 new COVID cases per 100,000 people. These rates were equivalent to 21 and 24 new cases, respectively. Oakland County had a per capita rate of 1, which was reflective of 13 new reported cases. Overall, 97 new COVID cases were reported in Southeastern Michigan on June 4. This is a decrease from the day prior.

In Chart 6, the five-day rolling average for the number of deaths in Michigan shows a continuing slow increase (a lagged number of 5,541 deaths, an increase of 26 deaths). The actual reported COVID-19 deaths on June 4 was 5,595, an increase of 25 deaths from the day prior. Of those 25 deaths, 13 were added on as result of comparing death certificates to the COVID database. Additionally, 18 of those 25 deaths occurred in Southeastern Michigan.

Chart 7 (a 5-day rolling average) portrays how Detroit continues to report the highest cumulative number of deaths at 1,380 on June 2. Wayne County had the second highest total at 1,094 on June 2.

The City of Detroit and Wayne County were the only ones in the data examined to experience a per capita increase in the total number of COVID deaths per 100,000 people on June 4. Detroit’s per capita rate was 206 COVID deaths per 100,000 people, which was equivalent to 1,388 deaths. Wayne County’s rate was 103 COVID deaths per 100,000 people, which was equivalent to 1,104 death. Macomb and Oakland counties’ rates, along with the rates of the other counties in the region, remained the same as the day prior. Macomb County’s rate was 95 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (828 deaths) and Oakland County’s rate was 80 (1,006 deaths). Detroit had the highest single day death count in Southeastern Michigan on June 4; 7 COVID deaths were reported. The State’s rate remained to 56 COVID deaths per 100,000 people, which was equivalent to 5,595 deaths (25 new deaths)

Chart 9, the five day rolling average of deaths,  shows the number of new statewide deaths decline from 33 on June 1 to 26 on June 2. Furthermore, Chart 10 shows how the number of deaths in Southeastern Michigan  also declined. Detroit and Wayne County both reported the lowest number of daily deaths at 4 on June 2, per the five-day rolling average.

On June 4, the fatality rate for Detroit slightly increased to 12.5 percent. The red dotted line-which represents the State of Michigan-remains the most notable though as the fatality rate of 9.6 percent has remained the same for 17 days now.

One reason we may be seeing such high fatality rates in Michigan is due to the low testing rates. When only having-presumably-a lower of number confirmed COVID cases than is actually likely due to the limited availability of tests, the fatality rate appears higher because the base comparison is smaller than it might be.

Both the raw data and the rolling averages show that COVID numbers continue decline both in the State and in Southeastern Michigan. With the weekend coming soon we may see a continued decline, but the question always remains if that is due to true declines or a delay in inputting data.