According to the State of Michigan, the total number of COVID cases in Michigan rose to 58,241 on June 4, an increase of 206 cases from the previous day. The daily total was equivalent to 583 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 4). Of those 206 cases, 97 were documented in Southeastern Michigan, which was equal to 47 percent of the new cases. In Chart 1 we show that the State total for the number of COVID cases on June 2 was 57,787–a five-day rolling average. The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report.
Chart 2 shows that, based on the five-day rolling averages, the growth of new COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan is only minimally increasing. On June 3 the number of cases in Detroit reached 11,075, the highest in the region, and Wayne County reported the second highest number of cases at 9,417. On June 3, the five-day rolling average for the number of COVID cases in Oakland County was 8,416, and Macomb County reported 6,783.
The City of Detroit had 1,653 COVID cases per 100,000 people as of June 4, an increase from 1,649 the day before (Chart 3). This is based upon a reported increase of 25 new COVID cases, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 11,116. Wayne County reported 880 cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County had 671 cases per 100,000 people. These per capita rates were based upon 9,474 total cases for Wayne and for 8,438 Oakland. Macomb County reported 777 cases per 100,000 people, which is based upon 6,790 cases.
The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State. Additionally, the case totals do not reflect the number of people who have recovered, just those who have been infected.
Chart 4 shows that Detroit reported the highest number of daily cases, according to the five-day rolling average, at 36 on June 2. Macomb County reported 33 new COVID cases and Wayne County reported 31.
On June 4, the per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people was 2 for the State, which was equivalent to 206 new cases. This was a decrease from the day before. Detroit and Livingston County both reported per capita rates higher than the State, each reporting 4 new COVID deaths per 100,000 people. For Detroit this was equivalent to 25 new COVID deaths and for Livingston County this was equivalent to 7. On June 4, Macomb and Wayne Counties each reported 2 new COVID cases per 100,000 people. These rates were equivalent to 21 and 24 new cases, respectively. Oakland County had a per capita rate of 1, which was reflective of 13 new reported cases. Overall, 97 new COVID cases were reported in Southeastern Michigan on June 4. This is a decrease from the day prior.
In Chart 6, the five-day rolling average for the number of deaths in Michigan shows a continuing slow increase (a lagged number of 5,541 deaths, an increase of 26 deaths). The actual reported COVID-19 deaths on June 4 was 5,595, an increase of 25 deaths from the day prior. Of those 25 deaths, 13 were added on as result of comparing death certificates to the COVID database. Additionally, 18 of those 25 deaths occurred in Southeastern Michigan.
Chart 7 (a 5-day rolling average) portrays how Detroit continues to report the highest cumulative number of deaths at 1,380 on June 2. Wayne County had the second highest total at 1,094 on June 2.
The City of Detroit and Wayne County were the only ones in the data examined to experience a per capita increase in the total number of COVID deaths per 100,000 people on June 4. Detroit’s per capita rate was 206 COVID deaths per 100,000 people, which was equivalent to 1,388 deaths. Wayne County’s rate was 103 COVID deaths per 100,000 people, which was equivalent to 1,104 death. Macomb and Oakland counties’ rates, along with the rates of the other counties in the region, remained the same as the day prior. Macomb County’s rate was 95 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (828 deaths) and Oakland County’s rate was 80 (1,006 deaths). Detroit had the highest single day death count in Southeastern Michigan on June 4; 7 COVID deaths were reported. The State’s rate remained to 56 COVID deaths per 100,000 people, which was equivalent to 5,595 deaths (25 new deaths)
Chart 9, the five day rolling average of deaths, shows the number of new statewide deaths decline from 33 on June 1 to 26 on June 2. Furthermore, Chart 10 shows how the number of deaths in Southeastern Michigan also declined. Detroit and Wayne County both reported the lowest number of daily deaths at 4 on June 2, per the five-day rolling average.
On June 4, the fatality rate for Detroit slightly increased to 12.5 percent. The red dotted line-which represents the State of Michigan-remains the most notable though as the fatality rate of 9.6 percent has remained the same for 17 days now.
One reason we may be seeing such high fatality rates in Michigan is due to the low testing rates. When only having-presumably-a lower of number confirmed COVID cases than is actually likely due to the limited availability of tests, the fatality rate appears higher because the base comparison is smaller than it might be.
Both the raw data and the rolling averages show that COVID numbers continue decline both in the State and in Southeastern Michigan. With the weekend coming soon we may see a continued decline, but the question always remains if that is due to true declines or a delay in inputting data.