Wayne County has Highest Medicaid Births in Southeastern Michigan

The political battle over the Affordable Care Act continues to swing back and forth in Washington, but it’s consequences will be felt directly in Southeastern Michigan. Data on Medicaid payments for prenatal care and births in Southeastern Michigan make clear that the ACA, in particular the Medicaid expansion, led to an increase in federal support for prenatal care and births in our region, particularly in two counties.

Births paid for by Medicaid grew between 2010 and 2015 in Monroe and Wayne counties. In 2010, 45 percent of the births in Monroe County were paid for by Medicaid and in Wayne County that number was 46 percent. By 2015 that number increased to 49 percent in Monroe County and 56 percent in Wayne County. In that time frame Monroe County also had the largest decrease and increase. In 2013 50 percent of the births in Monroe County were paid for by Medicaid and in 2014 that number dropped to 32 percent, before increasing back to 49 percent in 2015.

According to the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services, a Medicaid patient about $8,000 is allocated to each woman to cover prenatal, birth and postpartum care.

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In 2015, according to data from the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services, Wayne County had the highest percent of births paid for by Medicaid than any of the other counties in Southeastern Michigan. Of the births in Wayne County in 2015, 56 percent of them were paid for by Medicaid; this was equivalent to 13,145 births. As a comparison, across the entire state of Michigan 43.5 percent of births were paid for by Medicaid. Regionally, Livingston County had the lowest percentage of births paid for by Medicaid at 17 percent, that was equivalent to 317 births.

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Oakland, Washtenaw Counties Have Highest Foreign-Born Populations in Southeastern Michigan

Of the four major counties in Southeastern Michigan, both Oakland and Washtenaw counties had the highest percentage of foreign-born populations in 2015, according to the American Community Survey. Oakland County ranked just above Washtenaw County though; the foreign born population percentage in Oakland County was 11.8 percent and in Washtenaw County it was 11.6 percent. In Oakland County there are three municipalities where more than 20.1 percent of the population was foreign born in 2015, while in Oakland County there was only one municipality.

Of all the municipalities in the region though it was Hamtramck with the highest percentage of foreign-born residents at 46.6 percent.

The U.S. Census Bureau defines a foreign-born person as “anyone who was not a U.S. citizen at birth. This includes respondents who indicated they were a U.S. citizen by naturalization or not a U.S. citizen. Persons born abroad of American parents or born in Puerto Rico or other U.S. Island Areas are not considered foreign born.”

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In Macomb County in 2015, 10.6 percent of the population was foreign-born, with the city of Sterling Heights having the largest foreign-born population. In Sterling Heights 25.8 percent of the population was foreign-born; this is equivalent to 33,598 people in the city. Of those residents, 58.7 percent were naturalized U.S. citizens and the remainder (41.7%) were not U.S. citizens.

Aside from Sterling Heights, Warren and Shelby Township had amongst the highest foreign-born populations at 12.1 percent and 13.5 percent, respectively.

All of northern and eastern Macomb County had less than 5 percent foreign-born populations.

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In Oakland County, it was the western side of the county where majority of the municipalities had less than 5 percent of their populations made up of foreign-born residents. The city of Troy had the highest percentage of foreign-born residents in Oakland County at 25.8 percent, followed by West Bloomfield Township at 20.9 percent and Novi at 20.8 percent.

In Troy, 52 percent of the foreign-born residents were naturalized U.S. citizens and the remainder were not U.S. citizens. Between Troy, Novi and West Bloomfield Township, Novi had the highest percentage of non-U.S. citizens at 55 percent.

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In Washtenaw County, Ann Arbor Township had the highest percentage foreign-born residents at 21.8 percent. This percentage was the equivalent to about 971 people in the charter township. Of these people, 49 percent were naturalized U.S. citizens and the remainder were not U.S. citizens. The city of Ann Arbor and Pittsfield Township followed Ann Arbor Township in terms of foreign-born populations. The percentage of foreign-born residents residing in Ann Arbor was 17.9 percent and in Pittsfield Township was 18. percent. These percentages were equivalent to 20,762 foreign-born residents in Ann Arbor and 6,753 in Pittsfield Township.

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In Wayne County, Dearborn and Hamtramck had the highest percentage of foreign-born residents at 26.4 percent and 46.6 percent, respectively. In Dearborn, of the 25,410 foreign-born residents 65 percent were naturalized citizens. In Hamtramck, of the 9,589 foreign-born residents, 45 were naturalized U.S. residents.

In Detroit, the foreign-born population made up about 37,000 residents but was equivalent to 5.1 percent of the population.

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Detroit 30-Year Mortgage Rates Below National Average

  • The average 30-year mortgage interest rate in Detroit is lower than the national average (weekly);
  • The Standard and Poor’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the Detroit Metropolitan Statistical Area shows home prices continue to increase monthly and annually.
  • The unemployment rate increased at the State and local level(monthly);
  • Regionally, Washtenaw County’s unemployment rate remained the lowest;
  • The Purchasing Manager’s Index for Southeastern Michigan dropped below 50 but is expected to increase (monthly);
  • The Commodity Price Index dropped to its lowest point in over a year (monthly);

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On March 15, 2017 the Federal Reserve Raised the federal interest rate by .25 percent; it now ranges between .75 and 1 percent. This is the third time the rate has been raised since the financial crisis. Prior to last week rates were raised once in 2015 and once in 2016. The rate increase has been attributed to strong job growth, more investment from businesses into operations and a higher rate of consumer spending.

This rate increase will impact credit products, such as mortgages and auto loans, in addition to savings, home equity lines of credit and credit cards. Another item that may be affected is new home starts, a statistic that is not readily available through the Southeastern Michigan Council of Governments website, as it once was.

Above are three average 30-year mortgage interest rates at the national, state and local levels. These rates were provided by bankrate.com, which does a national survey of large lenders on a weekly basis. As a 30-year fixed rate mortgage is the most traditional type of home financing this was chosen to show the rate differences. The State of Michigan had the lowest average interest rate for the week of March 16 at 4.14 percent and the national average was the highest of the three at 4.44 percent. Detroit’s average 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate was 4.42 percent, which according to bankrate.com is an increase from the previous week. According to bankrate.com, Detroit’s rate for an average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the Detroit area is equivalent to about an additional $4.50 a month on a mortgage for $165,000. Such an increase brings the average monthly payment to about $819.

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The above charts show the Standard and Poor’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the Detroit Metropolitan Statistical Area. The index includes the price for homes that have sold but does not include the price of new home construction, condos, or homes that have been remodeled.

According to the index, the average price of single-family dwellings sold in Metro Detroit was $109,790 in October 2016. This was an increase from $6,520 from October of 2015 and an increase from $11,570 from October of 2014.

**This information has not been updated since December of 2016. It was presented in a previous post, however due to the relation to the information above we are republishing it.**

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According to the most recent data provided by the Michigan Department of Technology, Management and Budget, the unemployment rate for the State of Michigan slightly increased to 5.2 in January of 2017 from 5 the previous month. Detroit, however, had a big increase. Unemployment in the City of Detroit increased from to 9.8 in December to 12.3 in January. The January unemployment rate for Detroit in 2017 was 1.2 points higher than it was the previous year at that time.

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The chart above displays the unemployment rates for each of the seven counties in Southeastern Michigan for January of 2016 and 2017. For 2017, St. Clair County had the highest rate at 7.7 while Washtenaw County had the lowest at 3.4. St. Clair and Wayne counties were the only two in the region with unemployment rates above 7 in January. Four of the seven counties (Livingston, Monroe, Oakland and Washtenaw) all had unemployment rates at or below 5.

While in 2016 St. Clair County again had the highest unemployment rate for the month of January, regionally, and Washtenaw County had the lowest, it is interesting to note that unemployment rates were higher across all counties in 2017. Wayne County had the largest difference between 2016 and 2017 at 1 point; the unemployment rate was 6.2 in 2016 and 7.2 in 2017.

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The Purchasing Manger’s Index (PMI) is a composite index derived from five indicators of economic activity: new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories. A PMI above 50 indicates the economy is expanding.

According to the most recent data released on Southeast Michigan’s Manager’s Index, the PMI for December 2016 was 53.3, a significant drop from an index of 61.9 the prior month. History shows though that January traditionally has a lower PMI readings and it is expected to increase for February.

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The January 2017 Commodity Price Index dropped to the lowest it has been since September of 2015. At that time the Commodity Price Index was 41.2 and this most recent reading was 41.7. There is speculation from the Institute of Supply Management-Southeastern Michigan that this drop could reflect policy changes from the new federal administration, especially as gas and oil prices are up.

How Immigrants Impact Michigan’s Economy

With about 6.5 percent of Michigan’s population being comprised of foreign-born residents (an increase from 3.8 percent in 1990) their contribution to the economy is evident. From running their own businesses and employing non-foreign born residents to filling in gaps in the work force, a 2016 study by New American Economy shows just how much the immigrant population in the state contributes to the overall economy.

According to the Census Bureau, about 6.5 percent of Michigan’s population is made up of immigrants. Of that population, those that come from Asia make up majority of the foreign-born population at 50.7 percent and those that come from Northern America (Canada, Mexico, Caribbean) made up one of the smallest segments of the population at 5.3 percent (Oceana made up .5 percent).

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As shown in the infographic, of Michigan’s immigrant population, 30,086 of them were self-employed in 2014, and 8.3 percent of the immigrant population were entrepreneurs. Additionally, 15,780 Michigan residents were employed by immigrant owned firms and $608.4 billion of income was generated by immigrant businesses, according to the 2016 New American Economy report “The Contributions of New Americans in Michigan.”

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Through immigrant population employment, in 2014 there was about $20 billion in income generated and $5.4 million in taxes generated (total-combined federal and state). Asian immigrants contributed the most in income and taxes, according to the report. In 2014 Asian immigrants generated $7.6 billion in income and $2.2 billion in taxes ($574.9 million went to state and local taxes), the Middle Eastern and Northern African population generated $2.8 billion in income and $753.5 million in taxes ($213.1 million went to state and local taxes), the Hispanic population generated $2 billion in income and $473.6 million in taxes ($167.5 million went to state and local taxes) and the Sub-Saharan Africa population generated $548.5 million in income and $139.5 million in taxes ($44.9 million went to state and local taxes), according to the report. Not only did Michigan’s immigrant population contribute to federal and local taxes, but also to entitlement programs. In 2014, Michigan’s immigrant population contributed $507.5 million to Medicare and $1.9 billion to social security.

According to the report, 30 percent of Michigan’s doctors, 9,150 people, were foreign born. Software developers came in second at 28 percent (7,474 workers), followed by farm workers (27%-7,762), post-secondary teachers (22%-12,880), mechanical engineers (22%-10,502), packers and packagers (17%-3,507), computer systems analysts (22%-3,152) and food-service managers (14%-5,310). In total, the percent of immigrant workers employed in a Science, Technology, Engineering and/or Mathematic (STEM) field was 15.3 percent, according to the New American Economy report. The report also points out how there is a shortage of STEM workers in the state, with 10 jobs being available for every one employable worker.

The information presented in this post provides a broad economic overview on the contributions of Michigan’s immigrant population. To learn more about these contributions on everything from how Michigan’s student immigrant population plays a role in the economy to how age plays a factor in economic growth for the foreign-born and non-foreign born populations, please read the whole report here.

Source: http://www.renewoureconomy.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/nae-mi-report.pdf

Economic Growth Slow for Southeastern Michigan Counties

According to four performance indicators, identified by the National Association of Counties (NACO), Southeastern Michigan has yet to fully recover from the recession. There are counties though, that are faring better than others, regionally. For example, Washtenaw County has recovered beyond it’s pre-recession peak recovery on all four performance indicators, while Wayne County has only overcome one of those peaks.

The four indicators NACO uses to determine county economic growth are:

  •   Unemployment Rate
  •   Job Growth (total number of jobs available)
  •   Economic output growth (Gross Domestic Product)
  •   Median Home Value Growth

To determine if there has been growth NACO first graphed annual values from 2002 to 2016 indicating which year between those two was the pre-recession peak (Or nadir, in the case of unemployment). If the 2016 value had not reached the pre-recession peak, which was typically 2005 for majority of the indicators for Southeastern Michigan, NACO deemed there to be no recovery in that area for that county.

Overall, the data shows that economic output recovery and median home values have been the slowest recovery throughout the region. Four the seven Southeastern Michigan counties have yet to experience pre-recession GDP values (adjusted for inflation) and two of the seven have yet to experience median home value recovery. All of the counties have had their unemployment rates drop to pre-recession numbers, or less.

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According to NACO, Livingston County ranked in the highest section for economic recovery due to the fact that indicators showed job, unemployment, gross domestic product and home price recovery rates in 2016. For the total number of jobs available Livingston County’s pre-recession peak was in 2005, as was its GDP and median home price value. All three of these increased by 2016. The data also shows that between 2015 and 2016 the county’s unemployment rate dropped to 3.8 percent, which was a 1.1 percent decline from the previous year. Livingston County’s job growth rate increased by 1.8 percent, its economic output growth rate increased by 2.6 percent and its median home prices grew by 7.4 percent between 2015 and 2016.

The image below shows that Livingston County’s economic indicators have been showing signs of a stronger economy, however its economic output growth rate and its median home prices growth rate both fall below that of the average mid-sized county economies’.

None the less, there is job growth in Livingston County and the top five specialized industries in the county in 2016 were:

  •   Professional and business services
  •   Construction
  •   Real Estate
  •   Financial activities
  •   and Arts and Entertainment

Macomb

Macomb County has only recovered in two of four performance areas to its pre-recession peaks, according to NACO. One of those two areas that experienced recovery is in job growth; the pre-recession peak was in 2005 and recovery began in 2009, and has continued to climb. Additionally, the unemployment rate was at 5.1 percent in 2016 is below the county’s 2002 pre-recession low point of 6.4 percent. The GDP peaked in 2005 by 2016 it had yet to climb back to the inflation adjusted number; however the county has experienced a steady increase since the 2009 low point. Median home values also have yet to reach the pre-recession peak in Macomb County, which was in 2005.

Between 2015 and 2016 Macomb County had a job growth rate of 1.3 percent, an economic output growth rate of 2 percent and a median home prices growth rate of 5.8 percent. Also, between 2015-16 the unemployment rate dropped 1 percent to 5.1 percent. While there has been economic growth in Macomb County, a look at the charts show that it has been slow and it remains below that of other large counties across the country.

With a job growth rate at 1.3 percent between 2015-16, the top five specialized industries in Macomb County by employment are:

  •   Manufacturing
  •   Construction
  •   Federal Government
  •   Management and Enterprises
  •   Military

Monroe

By 2016 Monroe County experienced growth in three of the four performance indicators, according to NACO. While it experienced job, unemployment rate and home price recovery, its economic output growth rate was not considered favorable compared to pre-recession numbers. Monroe County’s GDP peaked in 2003 and by 2009 recovery had begun. However, in 2016 that recovery had yet to reach the 2003 inflation adjusted value, although it was close.

Also, according to NACO, between 2015 and 2016 Monroe County had a jobs growth rate of 1.2 percent, an economic output growth rate of 1.9 percent and a median home prices growth rate of 4.1 percent. The unemployment rate was at 3.3 percent in 2016, a 1.1 percent decrease from the prior year and a 2.2 decrease from 2002.

In Monroe County in 2016 the top five specialized job industries were:

  •   Construction
  •   Transportation
  •   Utilities
  •   Agriculture
  •   Mining

Oak

Similar to Monroe County, Oakland County only experienced economic growth in three of the four categories, according to NACO. Oakland County’s GDP has not recovered since its 2003 pre-recession peak; but like many of the other counties in the region recovery began in 2009. Between 2015 and 2016 though, Oakland County’s economic output growth rate did increase by 2.3 percent while its job growth rate rose by 1.4 percent and its median home prices growth rate went up by 6.4 percent. The annual unemployment rate in Oakland County decreased by .8 percent between 2015 and 2016 to a total of 4.2 percent. As has been seen by all the counties discussed thus far, Oakland County’s overall performance indicators remain below other large counties in the country.

In 2016 in Oakland County the top five specialized industries by employment were:

  •   Professional and business services
  •   Financial activities
  •   Real Estate
  •   Information
  •   Management and enterprises

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In St. Clair County, total recovery has yet to be seen in both the job growth and economic output growth rate sections, according to NACO. In St. Clair County the total number of jobs available peaked in 2004 and in 2016 that number had yet to reach the pre-recession peak. However, there was a 1.1 percent jobs growth rate increase between 2015-16. Additionally, there was a 1.9 percent economic output growth rate between 2015-16. However, the GDP remained just below its 2005 peak. While those two areas have yet to recover, St. Clair County’s unemployment rate is below where it was at in 2002, its previous low point. In 2016 it had an unemployment rate of 5.7 percent, a decrease of 1.4 percent from the previous year. The county’s median home prices have also experienced growth. In 2016 the median home values had climbed above the previous 2005 peak. Additionally, between 2015-16 there was 4.5 percent increase.

St. Clair County’s top five specialized industries by employment are

  •   Retail
  •   Construction
  •   Utilities
  •   Agriculture
  •   Military

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According to NACO, Washtenaw County has experienced economic growth across the board, with its unemployment rate dropping below 2002 rates and its job, economic output and median home price growth rates all rising above the 2005 values, the county’s previous peak values. In 2016 Washtenaw County had an unemployment rate of 2.3 percent, a 1.2 percent decrease from the previous year and also a decrease from its 2002 rate of 3.6. The county’s job growth rate grew 1.7 percent between 2015 -16. The economic output growth rate for Washtenaw County increased by 2.6 percent between 2015-16. Finally, the median home price growth rate increased by 6.7 percent between 2015-16. The top five specialized industries in Washtenaw County by employment are:

  •   State and local government
  •   Professional and business services
  •   Arts and entertainment
  •   Information
  •   Federal government

Wayne

Wayne County is the only county in the region that has recovered in only one of the four areas, according to NACO. In 2002 Wayne County had an unemployment rate of 6.8 percent and in 2016 it was 6 percent, according to NACO. Since 2015 Wayne County has experienced positive growth rates for jobs, economic output and median home prices, but none have recovered to the pre-recession peaks. Wayne County’s unemployment rate was at its lowest in 2002 while the total number of jobs available was at its highest that year. Home values in the county peaked in 2005 and the GDP peaked in 2003.

While recovery has started in Wayne County, median home values and the total number of jobs available didn’t start to increase until 2010 or after, which is later than the 2009 recovery year many of the other counties in the experienced.

In Wayne County the top five specialized industries by employment:

  •   Healthcare and social assistance
  •   Other services
  •   Transportation
  •   Management and enterprises
  •   Federal government

Auto Parts top Michigan Exports, Imports

In Michigan, parts and accessories related to transportation-particularly those related to automobiles and trucks-were the top 10 commodities both imported and exported between 2012 and 2015, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

In total, the U.S. percent share of commodities Michigan exports is less than the U.S. percent share it imports, however neither have risen above 5.5 percent since 2012, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. In 2015 Michigan exported $25.1 billion worth of transportation equipment, ranging from rear view mirrors to engine ignition spark plugs. In total though, according to the International Trade Administration, Michigan exported $54 million worth of goods in 2015. Canada, a North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) partner, received the largest amount of commodities. In 2015 Canada received about $23.5 million worth of goods; this is equivalent to about 44 percent of the goods exported from Michigan. Mexico, also a NAFTA partner, was second to Canada in exports; in 2015 about $11.8 million worth of goods was exported to Mexico. Canada and Mexico were the only two countries who received more than $4 million worth of exports from Michigan in 2015, according to the International Trade Commission.

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Of the Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) in Michigan the Detroit-Dearborn-Warren area had the highest dollar value of exports at $44.3 billion, according to the International Trade Administration. That $44.3 billion translated into 68.5 percent of the state’s share of exports. Of the data available, the Lansing-East Lansing MSA had the lowest percent share of exports at 1.3, which was equivalent to $852 million.

Of the six of the seven counties in Southeastern Michigan for which data was available (no data for Washtenaw County), Wayne County had the highest value of goods exported in 2015 at $21.2 billion; Livingston County had the lowest at $570 million.

 

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The U.S. percentage of imports reached a new peak in 2015 at 5.5 percent, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Since 2012, Michigan’s share of U.S. imports has steadily risen from 5.1 percent. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, of the top 10 goods imported into Michigan, crude oil from petroleum is one of only two items on the list that is not directly labeled as a part related to transportation vehicle (transmission, ignition, etc.). The other good listed is seat parts related to medical chairs.

Imports from Canada ranked above all other countries as the leading source of imports to Michigan. In 2015, 36.8 percent of the goods imported into Michigan were from Canada; 35.4 percent of goods imported into the state were from Mexico. The country with the third largest percentage that Michigan imported from was China at 7.4 percent.Slide09

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The data presented in this post shows that Michigan’s imports and exports are still heavily linked on the auto industry, and the majority of the goods exported from the state are produced in the most populous region of the state. This region, the Detroit-Dearborn-Warren MSA, is located within miles to Canada and connected via a bridge and a tunnel.

Both in terms of exports and imports, this post also shows that Michigan has the strongest relationships with its NAFTA partners, Canada and Mexico. One of President Donald Trump’s campaign promises has been to re-negotiate the agreement. Both Trump, a Republican, and Democratic U.S. Rep. Debbie Dingell agree that NAFTA has harmed workers and factories. Recently, Rep. Dingell and Oregon Congressman Peter DeFazio introduced a resolution seeking a renegotiation of NAFTA to reduce the trade deficit, according to a Feb. 20 Michigan Radio article.

That resolution can be read here.

Wayne County Top in the Region for Injury, Crash Rates for Pedestrian and Bicycle-Vehicle Crashes

This post presents the rate of injuries and fatalities for vehicle crashes involving pedestrians and bicycles in all counties throughout Southeastern Michigan in 2015, according to the Michigan State Police. The rates in this post were calculated per 100,000 residents.

Wayne County had the highest injury and total crash rates for both pedestrian-vehicle crashes and bicycle-vehicle crashes. In total, Wayne County had a pedestrian-vehicle injury rate of 37 and a total pedestrian-vehicle crash rate of 42. These rates represent a total of 667 pedestrian-vehicle injuries in 2015 in Wayne County and 749 total pedestrian-vehicle crashes in Wayne County in 2015, according to the Michigan State Police. When examining the rate for pedestrian-vehicle fatalities, Macomb County had the highest rate in the seven county region at 9. In Macomb County in 2015 there were a total of 15 fatalities involving a pedestrian and a vehicle. Wayne County had a total of 72 fatalities from the same type of vehicle accident; this was equivalent to a rate of 4. Livingston County had the lowest rate of fatalities and injuries, with rates of 0.5 and 9, respectively.

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As noted earlier, Wayne County had the highest bicycle-vehicle injury rate in the region at 18.9 per 100,000 residents, with Washtenaw County only slightly behind at 18.4. When looking at the raw data though, there was a total of 336 bicycle-vehicle crashes in Wayne County, there was 72 in Washtenaw County. Monroe County had the highest bicycle-vehicle fatality rate at 1.3 per 100,000 residents with a total of 2 fatalities caused by such accidents in 2015. Washtenaw County came in just below Monroe County with a rate of 1.1 with a total of 4 bicycle-vehicle fatalities; there were also 4 bicycle-vehicle crash related fatalities in Oakland County in 2015 with a rate of 0.3. Livingston and St. Clair counties had zero related bicycle-vehicle related fatalities.

For the total crash bicycle-vehicle crash rates, Wayne County had the highest at 25 per 100,000 residents, with a total of 449 crashes. Livingston County had the lowest rate at 3 with a total of 6 bicycle-vehicle crashes.

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According to Smart Growth America, the Metro-Detroit area is ranked 17th of 104 nationwide metropolitan areas for most dangerous areas for pedestrians, due to the number of pedestrian deaths in the region between 2005-14. This study cited street design as one of the reasons for the total number of deaths. Additionally, the Macomb Daily recently cited distracted driving as a reason for the increased number of vehicle related fatalities, including pedestrian and bicycle related ones, over the last several years. This article said distracted driving included cell phone use and being under the influence of drugs and alcohol.

Where Did the Vote Break in Southeastern Michigan?

Republican areas saw marginally increased turnout between the 2012 and 2016 Presidential elections increased. The focus of that increase was southern Macomb County and the Downriver area in Wayne County. Conversely, the traditionally Democratic areas in Wayne County experienced some of the largest voter turnout decreases. Detroit saw especially large decreases.

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In Macomb County, eight of the communities experienced a voter turnout decrease between the 2012 and 2016 Presidential elections. It was Chesterfield Township that experienced the largest decrease in the county at 5.35 percent while Ray Township experienced the largest increase at 2.46 percent. Although Warren and Sterling Heights have been noted for having several precincts flip from Democratic to Republican between the two Presidential elections, both cities had areas that remained Democratic in 2016. Sterling Heights experienced a 2.7 percent voter turnout decrease in 2016 and Warren experienced a 1.5 percent decrease. St. Clair Shores is another city in southern Macomb County that flipped from Democratic to Republican and here voter turnout increased by 1.6 percent.

While the changes are complicated, it appears that areas in the county to the south that shifted to the GOP are also areas where turnout declined. Likely Democrats would have benefitted by a better Get Out The Vote (GOTV) campaign.

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In Oakland County we have highlighted how higher income communities like Bloomfield Hills and Birmingham flipped from being Republican in the 2012 presidential election to Democratic in the 2016 election. These communities though experienced a voter turnout decrease between the two elections, as did majority of the Oakland County communities that went Democratic in 2016. With the exceptions of Ferndale, Madison Heights and Clawson, all of the Democratic communities experienced a voter turnout decrease in 2016. Ferndale had the largest voter turnout increase in the county at 11.6 percent while Berkley had the largest decrease at 23.7 percent.

Republican communities in Oakland County weren’t exempt from experiencing a voter turnout decrease in 2016, however the decreases weren’t as widespread or large.

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Wayne County communities experienced some of the largest decreases in voter turnout in 2016, with Inkster experiencing a 26 percent decrease, River Rouge experiencing a 23 percent decrease and Redford and Detroit experiencing 11 percent decreases, each. Again, these communities all went Democratic in the 2016 election; they also went Democratic in the 2012 election.

Throughout much of Downriver though, an area that flipped from Democratic to Republican, an increase in voter turnout occurred. In that area, Rockwood had the largest increase at 7 percent. The city of Flat Rock did flip from Democratic to Republican between the two elections, but experienced a 16.36 percent voter turnout decrease.

Hamtramck and Highland Park experienced the largest voter turnout increases in Wayne County; Hamtramck had a 12 percent increase and Highland Park had an 11 percent increase. Both cities went Democratic in the 2012 and 2016 elections.

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In Washtenaw County, Ann Arbor Township had the highest voter turnout increase at 3.37 percent; this community went Democratic in both elections. The only Washtenaw County community that went Democratic in the 2016 election and experienced a voter turnout increase was Sylvan Township; it had a 0.37 percent increase. There were several Republican communities in Washtenaw County too though that experienced voter turnout increases. For example, Northfield Township experienced a 19.6 percent voter turnout decrease.

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Overall, the data shows that there were very few communities in Southeastern Michigan that experienced large voter turnout increases (above 10 percent). The marginal increases though occurred in areas that went Republican in the 2016 Presidential election, particularly in northern Macomb County, St. Clair County and the Downriver area in Wayne County.

Communities with Higher Non-White Populations Tend to Remain Democratic

Several of the areas that flipped from Democratic to Republican from the 2012 to 2016 Presidential Elections had populations composed of 15 percent or less non-white populations. There were exceptions to this though in areas in Southern Macomb County and Romulus in Wayne County. The Southeastern Michigan regional map below also highlights that Republican areas, in both elections, almost exclusively had populations where 15 percent or less of the residents were non-white.

Detroit, Highland Park and Royal Oak Township, had the highest percentages of non-white residents and also went Democratic in both elections.

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In Warren the non-white population is 26 percent, and it was here and in Sterling Heights were several precincts flipped from Democratic to Republican in Macomb County. Sterling Heights’s non-white population is 16 percent. Portions of Roseville also flipped from Democratic to Republican and here the non-white population is 23 percent.

Of the Macomb County communities with several of precincts that flipped, St. Clair Shores had the lowest percentage of non-white residents at 8 percent. These communities that flipped also had middle-class incomes, as shown in our previous post.

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In the areas in Oakland County that flipped from Republican to Democratic (Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills) the percentage of the non-white population typically ranged between 10 and 25 percent. Of those communities, West Bloomfield had the highest percentage of non-whites at 25 percent.

As shown in our previous post, these areas also had some of the highest median incomes in the region.

Of the communities in Oakland County that had several precincts that remained Republican in both elections, Novi and Troy had the highest percentage of non-white populations, 14 and 31 percent, respectively.

Communities that remained entirely Republican across both elections varied substantially from many that had less than ten or even 5 percent non-white to a few precincts that had between 10 and 50 percent non-white residents.

The City of Southfield had the highest percentage of non-white populations of the communities that remained Democratic at 75 percent.

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Highland Park and Detroit had among the highest non-white populations in both the region and the state. Both of these communities, along with several others surrounding them (River Rouge, Ecorse, Redford, etc.) went Democratic in the 2012 and 2016 elections. As we’ve highlighted throughout this series, the Downriver area had several communities flip from Democratic in 2012 to Republican in 2016. These communities have mid-range incomes, and the majority, with the exception of Brownstown and Taylor, had non-white populations below 15 percent. Brownstown had a non-white population of 16 percent and Taylor had one of 23 percent.

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Pittsfield, Superior and Ypsilanti had the highest percentages of non-white populations in Washtenaw County, with the City of Ypsilanti having the highest at 38 percent. It was Lima, Sylvan and portions of Dexter, Webster, Lodi and Pittsfield townships that flipped from Republican to Democratic between the two elections. Pittsfield had the highest percentage of non-white populations of these communities at 37 percent and Webster had the lowest at 3 percent.

While there were portions of Dexter that flipped Democratic, there were also portions that flipped Republican. The township’s non-white population stands at 3 percent. However in Augusta and Lyndon, two communities that flipped entirely Republican, the non-white population percentages were 14 and 10 percent, respectively.

Slide11

Our last post showed that majority of the communities that flipped from Democratic to Republican had mid-range incomes. In this post the data does not show a consistent trend on the racial makeup of communities that flipped. For example, in Southern Macomb County, Warren, Roseville, Sterling Heights and Clinton Township all had non-white populations above 15 percent while in the Downriver communities in Wayne County majority had non-white populations below 15 percent (Taylor and Brownstown were the exception).

One trend this post did show though was that communities with non-white populations above 25 percent went Democratic in both elections. On the opposite end of the spectrum, areas that stayed Republican across both elections almost always had populations where 15 percent or less of the residents were non-white.

 

Majority of Metro-Detroit’s Communities that Flipped Republican have Middle Class Incomes

In our last post regarding the 2016 Presidential election we highlighted what areas in Southeastern Michigan flipped from Democratic to Republican, or Republican to Democratic. The most notable switch occurred in Macomb County where, much of the southern portion of the County went from voting Democratic in 2012 to Republican in 2016. This switch was also noticeably evident in the Downriver area of Wayne County.

In the 2016, Detroit and its inner-ring suburbs (Ferndale, Royal Oak, parts of Warren, etc.), along with Ann Arbor and its surrounding cities to the east and west, had Democratic Candidate Hillary Clinton as the winning candidate. However, a large share of the region went to now President Donald Trump, including all of Livingston and St. Clair counties and majority of Macomb and nearly all of Monroe counties.

To shine additional light on the 2016 Presidential election, we will now be looking at the socioeconomic characteristics of the region, alongside which Presidential candidate won where. For this post, we will be discussing median income, particularly of the areas that flipped between the 2012 and 2016 elections.

When examining the region overall, the map below shows that majority of the areas in Southeastern Michigan that flipped from Democratic to Republican have a mid-range ($45,000-$70,000) median income. As we get further into the details of the region, we see this to be a defining factor for this group of precincts. Of the areas that have remained Republican, median incomes range from between $45,000 and to over $100,000. Of the areas that remained Democratic the median incomes range from about $17,000 to $100,000.

Slide03

A deeper look at Macomb County shows that majority of the areas that switched from voting Democratic in 2012 to Republican in 2016 have a median income between $45,000 and $70,000. This is true for St. Clair Shores, Sterling Heights and parts of Chesterfield, Lenox, Harrison and Clinton townships, all of which had at least one precinct flip. In the northern part of Macomb County, which voted Republican in 2012 and 2016, the median income is above $70,000.

While portions of Warren also flipped from Democratic to Republican, it is categorized as having a median income below $45,000. But, as noted earlier, the city’s median income is $44,000.

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In Oakland County, there were some high income areas-Bloomfield Township, Bloomfield Hills and Birmingham-that flipped to Democratic. However, we see that majority of the County went Republican in 2012 and 2016, and majority of these communities have median incomes above $70,000. The communities in the southeastern portion of Oakland County (Ferndale, Royal Oak, Oak Park) have remained Democratic communities for both elections and their median incomes top out at $70,000. Pleasant Ridge and Huntington Woods are two higher income (above $70,000) communities in that portion of the County that have traditionally gone Democratic.

Slide07

As noted earlier, it was the Downriver portion of Wayne County that flipped from Democratic to Republican for the 2016 election. In this portion of the County (Trenton, Woodhaven, Riverview, Flatrock, Gibraltar, Rockwood, etc.) 10 of the communities have a median income between $45,000 and $70,000. Parts of Taylor (median income below $45,000) and Brownstown (median income between $70,000 and $100,000) also switched.

Throughout Wayne County, median incomes vary greatly, with communities located on the County’s north eastside (Detroit, Hamtramck, Highland Park and Ecorse, etc.) having a median incomes below $45,000 and communities on the northwest side (Northville, Canton, Livonia) having median incomes above $70,000. Communities with median incomes between the two extremes are also scattered throughout the county. In Wayne County, of the 14 communities with median incomes above $70,000, 10 had a large Republican turnout. Of that 10, four showed precincts that flipped from Democratic to Republican, while the rest remained Republican between 2012 and 2016.

Slide09

In Washtenaw County, there are no communities that have a median income less than $45,000. Of the four that had precincts flip from Democratic to Republican between the two elections, the median incomes range between $67,000 (Northfield) and $94,000 (Dexter).

Of the communities that with precincts that flipped from Republican to Democratic, five had median incomes above $70,000 and one had a median income at $69,000.

Slide11

By examining the election data alongside median income data, we are able to determine there were 32 communities with median incomes between $45,000 and $70,000 with at least one precinct that flipped from Democratic to Republican between the 2012 and 2016 elections. When the opposite occurred-an area flipped from Republican to Democratic-the median income of that area was above $70,000.

Next week we will look at the election outcomes while also looking at the racial makeup of Southeastern Michigan’s communities.