Economic Indicators: Industrial Areas Seeing Increase in Leasing

In October of 2019 the unemployment rate for the State of Michigan was 3.5, the same as it was for the month of September, according to the most recent data provided by the Michigan Department of  Technology, Management and Budget. The State unemployment rate for October of 2018 was only slightly higher than it was this year in October, 3.7.

In October of 2019 Detroit’s unemployment rate was 7.8 percent.  That Detroit unemployment rate was 0.7 points lower in October of 2019 from the previous month. Also, the October 2019 unemployment rate for Detroit was 1.5 points lower from the previous year. In October of 2018 it was 9.3 percent.

The chart above displays the unemployment rates for each of the seven counties in Southeastern Michigan for October of 2018 and 2019. In October of 2019 Wayne County had the highest unemployment rate at 4.5. Washtenaw County had the lowest unemployment rate at 2.5.

Between October of 2018 and 2019 each county in the region had a lower unemployment rate in 2019 than the previous year; the county with the largest decrease was Macomb County. In October of 2018 the unemployment rate in Macomb County was 4.1 and in October of 2019 it decreased to 3. Also, Macomb, Livingston, Monroe and Washtenaw counties all had unemployment rates at 3 percent or lower while St. Clair and Wayne counties had unemployment rates at 4.1 and 4.5, respectively.

The availability of industrial spaces is another aspect of an area’s financial health and below is information from the quarterly reports of Cushman and Wakefield, a global real estate firm, which produces information related to Metro-Detroit. According to the company, leasing of industrial spaces in the third quarter of 2019 is up from the second quarter, with the Airport area having the strongest increase by landing companies such as DSV and Crane World Wide Logistics with their lease renewals. Additionally, the overall vacancy rate in the Metro-Detroit area is at 2.9 percent, and as shown in the first chart below the Downriver and East side areas have the lowest vacancy rates at 1.5 percent. The Southfield area has the highest vacancy rate at 5 percent.

The second chart below shows the average cost of industrial spaces in the region per square foot. There are three different types of industrial space as defined by Cushman and Wakefield and those are: manufacturing, office space and warehouse/distribution spaces. As the chart shows, office space has the highest market value, with the Southfield area having the highest cost at $14.19 per square feet. In nearly all the areas warehouse/distribution spaces has the second highest cost with Southfield again having the highest market rate at $7.15 per square foot. In the Downriver and Troy areas though manufacturing spaces have a higher market rate than the warehouse space. In Downriver, manufacturing spaces average $4.94 per square foot and warehouse spaces average $4.80 per square foot; in Troy manufacturing spaces average $7.22 per square foot and $5.60 per square foot for warehouse spaces. Troy also has the highest market value for manufacturing spaces in the region.

According to Cushman and Wakefield, there is an expectation that utilization of industrial spaces will continue to increase in 2020 meaning a continuation of low vacancy rates.

The above chart shows the Standard and Poor’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the Detroit Metropolitan Statistical Area. The index includes the price for homes that have sold but does not include the price of new home construction, condos, or homes that have been remodeled.

According to the index, the average price of single-family dwellings sold in Metro Detroit was $129,250 in September 2019; this was $800 lower than the average family dwelling price in August. The September 2019 price was an increase of $4,460 from September of 2018 and an increase of $11,650 from September of 2017, an increase of $19,470 from September of 2016 and increase of  $25,670 from September of 2015 and, finally, an increase of 
$30,910 from September of 2014.

Metro-Detroit Economic Indicators

In December of 2018 the unemployment rate for the State of Michigan was 4.1, an increase from the November unemployment rate of 3.4, according to the most recent data provided by the Michigan Department of Technology, Management and Budget. The State unemployment rate for December of 2017 was 0.6 points below what it was in December of 2018 (4.7). Since April of 2018 the data shows that the unemployment rate for the State essentially leveled out around 4, except when it dropped to 3.4 in November.

The Detroit rate was 0.5 points higher in December of 2018 from the previous month. Also, the December 2018 unemployment rate for Detroit was 0.1 points lower than what it was in December of 2017.

The chart above displays the unemployment rates for each of the seven counties in Southeastern Michigan for December of 2017 and 2018. In December of 2018 Wayne County had the highest unemployment rate at 4.9, with St. Clair County having the second highest regional unemployment rate 4.7. Livingston, Oakland and Washtenaw counties were the only three in the region with unemployment rates below 4 in December of 2018. The unemployment rate for Livingston County was 3.3, the unemployment rate for Oakland County was 3.3 and the unemployment rate for Washtenaw County was 3.1.

When comparing 2017 and 2018, Monroe, Washtenaw and Wayne counties were the only three in the region to experience a decrease in unemployment. Wayne County had the largest decrease at 0.9 points. Livingston, Macomb and St. Clair counties all experienced an increase from 2017 to 2019. Livingston County had the largest increase at 0.2.

The above chart shows the Standard and Poor’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the Detroit Metropolitan Statistical Area. The index includes the price for homes that have sold but does not include the price of new home construction, condos, or homes that have been remodeled.

According to the index, the average price of single-family dwellings sold in Metro Detroit was $123,550 in December 2018; this was $490 lower than the average family dwelling price in November. The December 2018 price was an increase of $6,210 from December of 2017 and an increase of $13,430 from December of 2016, an increase of $19,780 from December of 2016 and increase of $26,570 from December of 2014.

Unemployment Rates in Detroit,Region Take Recent Drop, Higher Than Previous Year

  • The unemployment rate decreased in Detroit and at the state level(monthly);
  • Regionally, April 2018 unemployment rates are higher than the prior year;
  • Housing prices continue to rise in Metro-Detroit.

In April of 2018 the unemployment rate for the State of Michigan was 4, a decrease from the March unemployment rate of 4.6, according to the most recent data provided by the Michigan Department of Technology, Management and Budget. The State unemployment rate for April was 0.3 point above what it was in April of 2017.

The Detroit rate was 1.3 points lower in April of 2018 than in March. In April of 2018 Detroit’s unemployment rate was reported to be 7.4, this was .3 points higher than in April of 2017.

The chart above displays the unemployment rates for each of the seven counties in Southeastern Michigan for April of 2017 and 2018. Monroe County was the only one in the seven county region to have a lower unemployment rate in 2018 than in 2017. In April of 2017 Monroe County’s unemployment rate was 3.7 and in 2018 in dropped slightly to 3.7.

In April of 2018 Wayne County had the highest unemployment rate at 4.3, St. Clair County was only slightly below at 4.2. These two counties were the only two in the region to have unemployment rates about 3.5 in April of 2018. Washtenaw County had the lowest unemployment rate in the region at 2.8. Oakland County and Livingston County were the only other two counties in the region with an unemployment rate below 3.

While Livingston County had among the lowest unemployment rate in the region in April of 2018 it also had the largest increase in its unemployment rate between April 2017 and April 2018. In April 2017 the unemployment rate for Livingston County was 2.4 and in 2018 it increased to 2.9.

The above chart shows the Standard and Poor’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the Detroit Metropolitan Statistical Area. The index includes the price for homes that have sold but does not include the price of new home construction, condos, or homes that have been remodeled.

According to the index, the average price of single-family dwellings sold in Metro Detroit was $120,020 in March 2018; this was $1,220 higher than the average family dwelling price in February. The March 2018 price was an increase of $16,240 from March of 2016 and an increase of $22,120 from March of 2015 and an increase of $26,240 from March of 2014.

Detroit 30-Year Mortgage Rates Below National Average

  • The average 30-year mortgage interest rate in Detroit is lower than the national average (weekly);
  • The Standard and Poor’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the Detroit Metropolitan Statistical Area shows home prices continue to increase monthly and annually.
  • The unemployment rate increased at the State and local level(monthly);
  • Regionally, Washtenaw County’s unemployment rate remained the lowest;
  • The Purchasing Manager’s Index for Southeastern Michigan dropped below 50 but is expected to increase (monthly);
  • The Commodity Price Index dropped to its lowest point in over a year (monthly);

Slide03

On March 15, 2017 the Federal Reserve Raised the federal interest rate by .25 percent; it now ranges between .75 and 1 percent. This is the third time the rate has been raised since the financial crisis. Prior to last week rates were raised once in 2015 and once in 2016. The rate increase has been attributed to strong job growth, more investment from businesses into operations and a higher rate of consumer spending.

This rate increase will impact credit products, such as mortgages and auto loans, in addition to savings, home equity lines of credit and credit cards. Another item that may be affected is new home starts, a statistic that is not readily available through the Southeastern Michigan Council of Governments website, as it once was.

Above are three average 30-year mortgage interest rates at the national, state and local levels. These rates were provided by bankrate.com, which does a national survey of large lenders on a weekly basis. As a 30-year fixed rate mortgage is the most traditional type of home financing this was chosen to show the rate differences. The State of Michigan had the lowest average interest rate for the week of March 16 at 4.14 percent and the national average was the highest of the three at 4.44 percent. Detroit’s average 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate was 4.42 percent, which according to bankrate.com is an increase from the previous week. According to bankrate.com, Detroit’s rate for an average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the Detroit area is equivalent to about an additional $4.50 a month on a mortgage for $165,000. Such an increase brings the average monthly payment to about $819.

Slide05

The above charts show the Standard and Poor’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the Detroit Metropolitan Statistical Area. The index includes the price for homes that have sold but does not include the price of new home construction, condos, or homes that have been remodeled.

According to the index, the average price of single-family dwellings sold in Metro Detroit was $109,790 in October 2016. This was an increase from $6,520 from October of 2015 and an increase from $11,570 from October of 2014.

**This information has not been updated since December of 2016. It was presented in a previous post, however due to the relation to the information above we are republishing it.**

Slide07

According to the most recent data provided by the Michigan Department of Technology, Management and Budget, the unemployment rate for the State of Michigan slightly increased to 5.2 in January of 2017 from 5 the previous month. Detroit, however, had a big increase. Unemployment in the City of Detroit increased from to 9.8 in December to 12.3 in January. The January unemployment rate for Detroit in 2017 was 1.2 points higher than it was the previous year at that time.

Slide09

The chart above displays the unemployment rates for each of the seven counties in Southeastern Michigan for January of 2016 and 2017. For 2017, St. Clair County had the highest rate at 7.7 while Washtenaw County had the lowest at 3.4. St. Clair and Wayne counties were the only two in the region with unemployment rates above 7 in January. Four of the seven counties (Livingston, Monroe, Oakland and Washtenaw) all had unemployment rates at or below 5.

While in 2016 St. Clair County again had the highest unemployment rate for the month of January, regionally, and Washtenaw County had the lowest, it is interesting to note that unemployment rates were higher across all counties in 2017. Wayne County had the largest difference between 2016 and 2017 at 1 point; the unemployment rate was 6.2 in 2016 and 7.2 in 2017.

Slide11

 

The Purchasing Manger’s Index (PMI) is a composite index derived from five indicators of economic activity: new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories. A PMI above 50 indicates the economy is expanding.

According to the most recent data released on Southeast Michigan’s Manager’s Index, the PMI for December 2016 was 53.3, a significant drop from an index of 61.9 the prior month. History shows though that January traditionally has a lower PMI readings and it is expected to increase for February.

Slide13

The January 2017 Commodity Price Index dropped to the lowest it has been since September of 2015. At that time the Commodity Price Index was 41.2 and this most recent reading was 41.7. There is speculation from the Institute of Supply Management-Southeastern Michigan that this drop could reflect policy changes from the new federal administration, especially as gas and oil prices are up.

Southeastern Michigan Economy Gaining Strength

  • The unemployment rate across the state remained stagnant while the rate in the city of Detroit decreased (monthly);
  • The number of employed Detroit residents increased, (monthly);
  • The Purchasing Manager’s Index for Southeastern Michigan remains strong, especially after increasing 7 points (monthly);
  • The Commodity Price Index remained the same (monthly);
  • The Standard and Poor’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the Detroit Metropolitan Statistical Area shows home prices continue to increase monthly and annually.

slide03

According to the most recent data provided by the Michigan Department of Technology, Management and Budget, the unemployment rate for the State of Michigan slightly increased to 4.7 in October of 2016 from 4.6 the previous month. However, unemployment in the City of Detroit decreased to 11.1 in September, from 12.4 the previous month. The September unemployment rate in 2016 was 0.4 points lower than it was in September of 2015.

slide05

In September of 2016 the number of employed Detroit residents rose to 221,238, an increase of 2,314 from August. Between September of 2016 and September of 2015 there was a total increase of 10,012 employed Detroit residents, according to the Michigan Department of Technology, Management and Budget.

While the number of employed Detroit residents increased between August and September the labor force decreased by 1,067. In August the labor force was reported to be 250,047 and in September it was reported to be 248,971.

slide07

The Purchasing Manger’s Index (PMI) is a composite index derived from five indicators of economic activity: new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories. A PMI above 50 indicates the economy is expanding.

According to the most recent data released on Southeast Michigan’s Manager’s Index, the PMI for October 2016 was 67.2, an increase of 7 points from the prior month. The October 2016 PMI was an increase of 8.4 from the previous year.  With this increase, the PMI is considered to be strong, particularly because it has remained above 50 since June of 2014. Much of this growth, according to the Institute of Supply Management of Southeastern Michigan, is due to the resurgence of the auto sector in the region.

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The October 2016 Commodity Price Index decreased 0.2 points from September but increased 3.2 points from the prior year. The three month average for the Commodity Price Index was 48, which the Institute of Supply Management of Southeastern Michigan states is good for short-term profits.

slide11

The above charts show the Standard and Poor’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the Detroit Metropolitan Statistical Area. The index includes the price for homes that have sold but does not include the price of new home construction, condos, or homes that have been remodeled.

According to the index, the average price of single-family dwellings sold in Metro Detroit was $109,660 in August 2016. This was an increase from $103,750 from August of 2015 and an increase from $98,720 from August of 2014.

Detroit Unemployment Increases, Along with Number Employed and Labor Force

  • From April to May 2016, the unemployment rate across the state and within the city of Detroit increased (monthly);
  • Overall, however, the number of employed Detroit residents increased (monthly);
  • The Purchasing Manager’s Index for Southeastern Michigan decreased from May to June 2016 (monthly);
  • Commodity Price Index also decreased for Southeastern Michigan (monthly);
  • Standard and Poor’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the Detroit Metropolitan Statistical Area shows home prices continue to gradually increase on a month-to-month basis.

Unemployment

According to the most recent data provided by the Michigan Department of Technology, Management and Budget, the unemployment rate for the State of Michigan increased to 4.5 percent in May 2016; the unemployment rate was 4.3 percent in April. During this same period, unemployment in the City of Detroit also increased, but at a higher rate. Detroit’s unemployment increased from 9.1 percent in April to 9.8 percent in May.

Slide05

In May of 2016 the number of employed Detroit residents rose to 218,656, an increase of 1,577 from April. Between May of 2016 and May of 2015 there was a total increase of 8,756 employed Detroit residents, according to the Michigan Department of Technology, Management and Budget.

Along with the the number of employed Detroit residents increasing over the last year, so has the labor force. Between April and May of 2016 the labor force increased by 3,784 and between May of 2015 and May 2016 the labor force increased by 803. In May of 2016 the labor force recorded by the the Michigan Department of Technology, Management and Budget for the city of Detroit was 242,432.

Auto Manufacturing employment

The above chart shows the number of people employed in the auto manufacturing industry in the Detroit Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) (Detroit-Warren-Livonia) from May 2015 to May 2016. In that time frame the number of people employed in this industry decreased by 900, from 94,200 to 93,300.

PMI

The Purchasing Manger’s Index (PMI) is a composite index derived from five indicators of economic activity: new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories. A PMI above 50 indicates the economy is expanding.

According to the most recent data released on Southeast Michigan’s Manager’s Index, the PMI for June 2016 was 58.8, a decrease of 1.1 points from the prior month. The May 2016 PMI was a decrease of 3.2 from May of 2015.  Although there was a decrease, the PMI is still considered strong because of new orders, employment and production. There was a decrease in finished goods, which caused the decrease, along with a decrease in the commodity price index, which is shown below.

Commodity Price Index

The June 2016 Commodity Price Index decreased 7.1 points from May and 6.9 points from the prior year. According to the ISM-Southeastern Michigan PMI the Commodity Price decreased between May and June, however fuel, paper and plastics went up in price.

Detroit Home Prices

The above charts show the Standard and Poor’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the Detroit Metropolitan Statistical Area. The index includes the price for homes that have sold but does not include the price of new home construction, condos, or homes that have been remodeled.

According to the index, the average price of single-family dwellings sold in Metro Detroit was $103,780 in March 2016. This was an increase from $97,900 from March of 2015 and an increase from $93,780 from February of 2014.

The Motor City and Automotive Industry still dictate state’s export economy

The Southeast Michigan region was the fifth largest export market in the United States in 2013 according to U.S. Census Bureau Statistics, with more than $53.9 billion in exports. In the same year, the state of Michigan reported $58.7 billion in exports, making the region (which includes Lapeer County in the Southeast Michigan) responsible for 91.8 percent of the state’s export economy. This post explores the role of exports in the regional economy and examines how trade connects the region to the world economy.

The map above shows the top 25 export recipients receiving goods originating in Michigan in 2014. In 2014, Michigan exports accounted for 3.4 percent of the national export total, by value. Among the top 25 export recipients are countries on six of seven continents. The strongest partnership is with neighboring Canada at more than $25,405 million. Fellow North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) partner Mexico follows Canada, but is well behind at $10,804 million.

Export statistics support Michigan’s case as a leader in automotive manufacturing, and this is driven by Detroit. Of the top 25 products being exported, 21 were automotive parts or vehicles; they comprised 45.4 percent of all exports from the state of Michigan in 2014, and grew by 2.9 percent, on average, between 2013 and 2014. Exported products that were not directly related to the automotive industry were aircraft parts, natural gas, iron ore and medicines. These products represented just 6.6 percent of all exports, by value, and saw an average growth of just 2.7 percent from 2013 to 2014.

In 2013 Wayne County produced the lion’s share of exports by value in the region ($31 billion), more than double the second-highest exporting county (Oakland at $14.5 billion), according to the International Trade Administration (ITA), a division of the U.S. Department of Commerce, using Census data from 2013.

The ITA also indicates that exports were not predominantly the Big 3 automakers exporting finished products, but small producers of automotive parts. In 2011, 7,215 different businesses exported out of metropolitan region, with 90 percent of exports coming from firms employing fewer than 500 employees, according to the ITA.

The next two maps look specifically at the Ports of Detroit (this includes two ports, Detroit Metropolitan Airport and the Port of Detroit – a container port). These maps show export partners by value and by weight for 2010, the last year for which the Census Bureau has port-specific data publicly available. When examined by value, Detroit sent a great deal of export value in 2014 ($USD) to Canada and Western Europe. No country outside these two regions received more than $25 million in exports from Detroit. Nations with robust automotive industries of their own – Germany, the United Kingdom and France – are among some of the largest recipients of Detroit products.

When examined by weight, a more broad trade geography emerges. Including this measure allows us to see more clearly where finished vehicles and iron ores are going. While Canada, Germany and the United Kingdom still lead among export recipients when considered by weight, South Africa and China emerge as significant trade partners.

The ITA indicates that since 2010 Michigan has seen a noteworthy increase in trade (by value) with Mexico, Saudi Arabia, China and the United Arab Emirates, which have overtaken many of the European nations to join Canada among the top five recipients of Detroit-area exports.

 

Unemployment numbers decreased with the holiday season

  • From October 2014 to December 2014, the unemployment rate across the state and in the City of Detroit’s decreased (monthly);
  • The Purchasing Manager’s Index for Southeast Michigan increased from November 2014 to December 2014 (monthly);
  • Commodity Price Index decreased from November 2014 to December 2014 for Southeast Michigan (monthly);
  • Wayne, Macomb and Oakland counties experienced decreases in the number of monthly building permits pulled.

Slide02According to the most recent data provided by the Michigan Department of Technology, Management, and Budget, the unemployment rate for the state of Michigan decreased from 7.1 percent in October to 6.3 percent in December. During this same period, unemployment in the city of Detroit also decreased from 15.1 in October percent to 12.2 percent.

Slide04

From November to December of 2014, the number of people employed in the city of Detroit increased by 1,775, leading to a total of 287,228 people employed in December.

Slide06

The above chart shows the number of people employed in the auto manufacturing industry in the Detroit Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) (Detroit-Warren-Livonia) from December 2013 to December 2014. From July 2014 to November 2014 employment in this industry has increased by 9,000 from 91,600 to 100,600. However, from November to December, that number stagnated, remaining at 100,600. This was still the highest it had been over the last year.

Slide08

The Purchasing Manger’s Index (PMI) is a composite index derived from five indicators of economic activity: new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories. A PMI above 50 means the economy is expanding.

According to the most recent data released on Southeast Michigan’s Purchasing Manager’s Index, the PMI for December 2014 was 64.2, an increase of 7.4 points from the prior month. As compared to December 2013, there has been an increase of 13.6 points.

Slide10

The Commodity Price Index, which is a weighted average of selected commodity prices, was recorded at 54.2 points in December 2014, which was 7.6 points lower than the previous month and 1.9 points higher than December 2013.

Slide12Slide13Slide14

The above charts show the number of residential building permits obtained each month in Oakland, Macomb, and Wayne counties from January 2013 until December 2014. These numbers are reported by local municipalities to the Southeastern Michigan Council of Governments and include single-family units, two-family units, attached condos, and multi-family units.

 

Oakland, Wayne, and Macomb counties all experienced a decrease in the number of building permits pulled from November 2014 to December 2014. These declines are largely seasonal, due to weather. Only Wayne County issued more permits in December 2014 than it did in December 2013. Oakland County issued 131 permits in December of 2014, a decrease of 10 compared to November 2014 and a decrease of 18 compared to December 2013. Macomb County issued 31 permits in December 2014, 47 fewer than in November 2014 and 52 fewer than in December 2013.

Wayne County issued nine fewer building permits in December than November of this year; in total 52 permits were pulled. This is seven more than the number pulled for the county in December 2013.