Recent Drop in Michigan’s COVID Numbers Still Not Enough

On July 20, the State of Michigan reported a total of 74,152 cases, an increase of 489 cases from the day prior. In terms of the number of new daily cases, the 489 new COVID cases reported on July 20 is a small increase from the 483 new cases reported on July 19. Of the new 489 new COVID cases, 202 were documented in Southeastern Michigan. In total, 41 percent of the new COVID cases were in Southeastern Michigan, meaning case numbers are increasing at a higher rate outside of the region than locally. In Chart 1 we show that the State total for the number of COVID cases on July 18 was 73,068–a five-day rolling average. The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report.

Chart 2 shows that, based on the five-day rolling averages, the growth of new COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan continues to increase, with the numbers in Wayne County continuing to inch closer to those being reported in Detroit. On July 18, Wayne County’s numbers reached 11,595. Detroit, which continues to have the highest overall number of cases, reported 12,178 COVID cases as of July 18. Oakland County reported 10,110 cases and Macomb County reported 8,013.

The City of Detroit had 1,817 COVID cases per 100,000 people as of July 20, an increase from 1,812 on July 19 (Chart 3). This is based upon a reported increase of 32 new COVID cases between July 19 and July 20, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 12,223. Wayne County reported 11,085 cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County had 810 cases per 100,000 people. These per capita rates were based upon 11,686 total cases for Wayne and for 10,191 Oakland. Macomb County reported 928 cases per 100,000 people, which is based upon 8,107 cases.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State. Additionally, the case totals do not reflect the number of people who have recovered, just those who have been infected. In early June the State changed how it reports its data on the website, making data more accurate in the long-term but more complicated to track as well. The State regularly updates older data and as we continue to publish regular updates on COVID the State’s changes to past data many not always be reflected in our posts. The data published in new posts is accurate for the day we received it on though.

Chart 4 shows that Oakland County has been reporting the highest number of daily cases, according to the five-day rolling average, in about the last week. On July 18, Oakland County reported 74 new daily cases; Chart 4.1 also shows this, but at a more zoomed in level. The charts also show that Detroit reported 34 new cases on July 18, which is lower than the new cases reported out of Macomb and Wayne counties as well. Macomb County reported 62 new cases and Wayne County reported 72.

Map 1, which shows the average number of new daily COVID cases between July 9 and July 16 for Southeastern Michigan, highlights how Wayne County had the highest average number of new cases at 70.4, but Oakland County was right behind it with an average of 68.8. new cases. The map also shows that for Detroit the average number of new cases last week was 31.1 and it was 46.6 for Macomb County. As the data above shows, all four of those entities, and the remaining counties in the region all reported lower average weekly numbers for new daily COVID cases between July 9-16 than what was reported on July 18.

On July 20, the per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people was 5 for the State, which was equivalent to 482 new cases (Chart 5). Detroit and Wayne County also each reported a per capita rate of 5 new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people on July 20, which was equivalent to 32 and 50 new cases, respectively. Macomb County was the only entity in the region to report a higher per capita rate than the State. Macomb County reported a per capita rate of 7 which was equivalent to 65 new daily cases.  Oakland County reported a per capita rate of which was equivalent to 42 new cases. In Southeastern Michigan there were 202 new COVID cases reported on July 20.

Map 2 mimics the message of Map 1, with Wayne County having the highest average number of daily confirmed COVID cases per 100,000 between July 9 and July 16. During that week Wayne County had an average of 6.8 daily COVID cases per 100,000 people. Detroit averaged a per capita rate of 4.5 during that time frame.

In Chart 6, the five-day rolling average for the number of deaths in Michigan, shows the number of deaths in the State of Michigan reached 6,114 on July 18. The actual cumulative COVID-19 deaths on July 20 was 6,126, an increase of 7 deaths from the prior day.  Of the 7 deaths that were reported on July 20, 4 occurred in Southeastern Michigan.

Chart 7 (a 5-day rolling average) further hones in on where the majority of the COVID deaths in Michigan have occurred, and continue to occur, in Southeastern Michigan. As of July 18, the City of Detroit had reported 1,467 deaths. Wayne County had the second highest total at 1,190 deaths on July 18.

The per capita rates for the number of total COVID deaths in Southeastern Michigan continues to remain fairly stagnant across the region. Detroit reported 218 total COVID deaths per 100,000 people on July 20, which was equivalent to 1,468 deaths. Wayne County reported a per capita rate of 111 (1,191 deaths), Macomb County reported a per capita rate of 103 (892 deaths) and Oakland County reported a per capita rate of 86 (1,076 deaths). The State of Michigan reported a per capita rate for the number of total COVID deaths at 61 per 100,000 people, which was equivalent to 6,126  total deaths.

Chart 9, the five day rolling average of deaths, shows the number of new statewide deaths was reported at 15 on July 18. Furthermore, Chart 10 and Chart 10.1 shows how the number of deaths in Southeastern Michigan continues to remain low. Chart 10.1 shows a more in-depth look at the number of new daily COVID deaths in the last month so viewers can better discern where in the Southeastern Michigan the numbers are increasing, decreasing or remaining the same. Detroit reported 2 new daily deaths on July 18 while Macomb, Oakland and Wayne each reported 1.

In Map 3, Wayne and Oakland counties had the highest average number of daily COVID deaths between July 9 and July 16 at 1.5 and Detroit averaged 1.3 deaths. Macomb County averaged 1 death during that time frame. The averages last week reported in the map are similar to the daily death numbers that have been being reported in Southeastern Michigan.

Chart 11.1 shows the fatality rate for just the month of July with the cumulative number of new cases and deaths for only this month. This chart was created in recognition that case and death numbers are lower than they were even a month ago and to highlight how even if case numbers spike death numbers continue to remain low. Using only July cumulative data for the new number of cases and deaths, Monroe County has recently had the highest fatality rate, which was reported at 13.4 percent on July 20, which is based on 13 new cumulative deaths since the beginning of July and 97 new cumulative cases. The overall fatality rate for most of the region is much higher than the new recent cumulative look we are exploring. For example, the City of Detroit had an overall fatality rate of 12 percent on July 20 but with a more recent look, which includes lower new daily case and death numbers, it was 6.45 percent (as shown in the chart below).

On July 20 the State of Michigan reported 489 new COVID cases, which is amongst the lowest daily total reported in about a week. With weekend numbers reaching close to 700, the decline is welcomed but also means we—as a State and a society—have a ways to go to get to a more manageable number of new daily case numbers.

The Impacts of COVID on Mobility in Southeastern Michigan

The coronavirus pandemic has impacted the daily lives of everyone-from their work and school schedules to the way we obtain goods and services to how we recreate and interact with others. These changes directly relate to national and local mobility trends, especially since several Executive Orders in Michigan have either mandated or encouraged people to stay home and telecommute whenever possible.

The data we present here show the changes in mobility in Southeastern Michigan. These data were produced by Google, which is creating mobility reports for each State during this pandemic. The data presented below highlights the percent change in visits to places like grocery stores and parks in the seven counties that make up Southeastern Michigan. The list below is the percent change in mobility to these places between the first of April to mid-May for the State of Michigan. The maps below also reflect that timeframe and show the percent change in mobility trends at the county level for Southeastern Michigan compared to what baseline for mobility was to these places before the pandemic hit.

Shifts in Mobility Trends: Michigan

  • Residential: +8%
  • Workplaces: -28%
  • Grocery and pharmacy: -6%
  • Retail and recreation: -34%
  • Parks: +180%
  • Transit stations:-24%

Places of Residence

With the coronavirus pandemic came a statewide lockdown, which mandated people only leave their homes for necessities and not to visit with anyone outside of their homes, unless they were an essential worker. However, even with the mandate there was an increase in mobility between residences, statewide and locally. Statewide, there was an 8 percent increase in mobility to residential homes, and in Southeastern Michigan there was between a 7-12 percent increase, depending on the county. Washtenaw County had the highest percent increase in mobility between residences at 12 percent; St. Clair County had the lowest percent change at 7 percent. In Wayne County there was a 9 percent increase in mobility between residences, and in Macomb and Oakland counties there was a 10 percent increase.

Workplaces

As noted, the Governor’s emergency orders throughout the pandemic have required certain places of business to close and for others to allow for telecommuting whenever possible. With such policy shifts came a decline in mobility to workplaces all throughout Michigan. At the State level there was a 28 percent decline from the normal amount of mobility to workplaces, and throughout Southeastern Michigan there was between a 24-40 percent decline in mobility to workplaces between the beginning of April and mid-May. Washtenaw County had the largest decline at 40 percent. In Wayne County there was a 32 percent decline in mobility to workplaces prior the coronavirus pandemic, in Oakland County there was a 36 percent decline, and in Macomb County there was a 35 percent decline. Monroe County had the smallest percent decline from the baseline at 24 percent.

Grocery Stores and Pharmacies

Between April and mid-May there was a decrease in mobility to grocery stores and pharmacies throughout Michigan, including in Southeastern Michigan. Washtenaw County experienced the largest decline at 25 percent while Monroe County’s shift was only 4 percent lower than the amount residents normally commute to these places. Although we witnessed bare shelves at the beginning of the pandemic, with certain product shortages continuing through today, the decline in mobility to these stores is not surprising as both consumers and businesses shifted to online and third party delivery services.

Retail and Recreation Locations

With the restrictions on business operations, including if they could even remain open to the public, it is also not surprising that at the State and local levels mobility trends have experienced a decline to retail and recreation locations. Washtenaw County again experienced the largest decline in mobility from the frequency residents were traveling before the pandemic to retail and recreation locations. According to the data, there was a 50 percent decline in commuting to retail and recreation locations for Washtenaw County. In Wayne County that decline was 33 percent, in Macomb County it was 37 percent, and in Oakland County it was 48 percent. At the State level there was a 34 percent decline from the baseline in the amount people traveled to retail and recreation locations.

Parks

Similar to the trend being experienced at the State level, all counties in Southeastern Michigan have experienced an increase in mobility to parks. Wayne County experienced the smallest percent change at 32 percent while Macomb County experienced the largest percent change at 347 percent. There were three counties-Macomb, St. Clair and Washtenaw – where mobility to parks increased at a higher rate than the mobility rate increase at the State level (180 percent).

Transit Stations

The data also shows that there was a decrease in mobility to transit stations throughout most of Southeastern Michigan, but not the entire region. In Monroe and St. Clair counties there was an 18 and 6 percent increase in mobility, respectively. In Wayne County, which provides public transportation via both the Detroit Department of Transportation and the Southeastern Michigan Authority of Regional Transit (SMART) mobility to these stations decreased by 34 percent. There are also communities in Oakland County and all of Macomb County that offers public transportation via SMART; mobility to these stations declined by 15 percent and 3 percent, respectively. In Washtenaw County, where there is also a local transportation system, mobility to these stations declined by 28 percent. There was a 24 percent decline in mobility to transportation stations at the State level.

Overall, this data provides a glimpse into how the coronavirus pandemic has shifted certain aspects of our everyday ways of life. These current shifts could lead to long-term policy changes as we as a state and a nation are seeing that telecommuting, road diets and contactless shopping, among other changes, are possible. Pros and cons can be argued for the long-term impacts of such changes, however, decreases in commuting does mean a decline in certain pollutants being emitted, which is environmentally beneficial and a shift we need to implement for the long-term viability of this planet.

Michigan COVID Numbers Experience Overall Decline, Spikes in Cases Continue Though

The number of COVID cases in Michigan has flattened over the last several months, but as daily data show new cases continue to be reported. On June 22, the State of Michigan reported a total of 61,609 cases, an increase of 179 cases from the day prior. The daily total was equivalent to 615 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 4). Of those 179 cases, 61 were documented in Southeastern Michigan. In total, 34 percent of the new COVID cases were in Southeastern Michigan, meaning case numbers are increasing at a higher rate outside of the region than locally. In Chart 1 we show that the State total for the number of COVID cases on  June 20 was 61,034–a five-day rolling average. The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report. This continues to be important as the State of Michigan regularly updates its past COVID data and not all State changes can continuously be updated here.

Chart 2 shows that, based on the five-day rolling averages, the growth of new COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan has been increasing at a much slower pace compared to previous months. However, Detroit and Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties continue to add cases. On June 20 the number of cases in Detroit reached 11,376, the highest in the region, and Wayne County reported the second highest number of cases at 9,946. On June 20, the five-day rolling average for the number of COVID cases in Oakland County was 8,864, and Macomb County reported 6,974.

The City of Detroit had 1,694 COVID cases per 100,000 people as of June 20, an increase from 1,692 on June 19 (Chart 3). This is based upon a reported increase of 13 new COVID cases since June 19, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 11,394. Wayne County reported 926 cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County had 690  cases per 100,000 people. These per capita rates were based upon 9,970 total cases for Wayne and for 8,674 Oakland. Macomb County reported 799 cases per 100,000 people, which is based upon 6,983 cases.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State. Additionally, the case totals do not reflect the number of people who have recovered, just those who have been infected. In early June the State changed how it reports its data on the website, making data more accurate in the long-term but more complicated to track as well. The State regularly updates older data and as we continue to publish regular updates on COVID the State’s changes to past data many not always be reflected in our posts. The data published in new posts is accurate for the day we received it on though.

Chart 4 shows that Wayne County reported the highest number of daily cases, according to the five-day rolling average, at 13 on June 20. Detroit reported 8 new daily cases while Oakland County reported 6 and Macomb County reported 3. As Map 1 shows, Detroit and Wayne and Macomb counties all reported a lower number of new daily cases on June 20 than what the average was for last week (June 11-18). For example, last week Detroit averaged 12 new COVID cases and on June 20 it reported 8. Oakland County though had an average of 0.6 new cases last week and reported 6 new cases on June 20 through 5-day rolling average calculations. So, while there are signs the number of new cases are declining regionally, the data also shows that nowhere is immune from having its numbers increase again.

On June 22, the per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people was 2 for the State, which was equivalent to 179 new cases. On June 22, Detroit and Monroe and Washtenaw counties all reported the same per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people as the State-2. Detroit’s per capita rate of 2 was equivalent to 13 new cases per 100,000 people, based on an actual number of cases. St. Clair County reported a per capita rate of 3 and the remaining counties all reported per capita rates of 1. Wayne County’s per capita rate of 1 was equivalent to 22 new cases, the highest in the region that day. The second map below (Map 2) shows that while Detroit’s per capita rate on June 22 is on par with its average rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people for the week of June 11-18, St. Clair County is experiencing higher numbers this week than last. St. Clair County had a per capita rate of 3 on June 22 and an average per capita rate of 0.8 last week.

Chart 4 shows that Wayne County reported the highest number of daily cases, according to the five-day rolling average, at 13 on June 20. Detroit reported 8 new daily cases while Oakland County reported 6 and Macomb County reported 3. As Map 1 shows, Detroit and Wayne and Macomb counties all reported a lower number of new daily cases on June 20 than what the average was for last week (June 11-18). For example, last week Detroit averaged 12 new COVID cases and on June 20 it reported 8. Oakland County though had an average of 0.6 new cases last week and reported 6 new cases on June 20 through 5-day rolling average calculations. So, while there are signs the number of new cases are declining regionally, the data also shows that nowhere is immune from having its numbers increase again.

On June 22, the per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people was 2 for the State, which was equivalent to 179 new cases. On June 22, Detroit and Monroe and Washtenaw counties all reported the same per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people as the State-2. Detroit’s per capita rate of 2 was equivalent to 13 new cases per 100,000 people, based on an actual number of cases. St. Clair County reported a per capita rate of 3 and the remaining counties all reported per capita rates of 1. Wayne County’s per capita rate of 1 was equivalent to 22 new cases, the highest in the region that day. The second map below (Map 2) shows that while Detroit’s per capita rate on June 22 is on par with its average rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people for the week of June 11-18, St. Clair County is experiencing higher numbers this week than last. St. Clair County had a per capita rate of 3 on June 22 and an average per capita rate of 0.8 last week.

In Chart 6, the five-day rolling average for the number of deaths in Michigan shows how they have leveled off during the month of June. On June 20 there were 5,837 deaths (an increase of 12 deaths from the day prior). The actual cumulative COVID-19 deaths on June 22 was 5,853, an increase of 7 deaths from the prior day. Of those deaths that occurred, 4 were in Southeastern Michigan.

Chart 7 (a 5-day rolling average) further reflects how the number of deaths has leveled off in the State and Southeastern Michigan. On June 20 the City of Detroit reported 1,428 deaths, and while it is still the highest number in the region, that number has only increased by 25 total deaths since June 8. Wayne County had the second highest total at 1,141 deaths on June 20; Wayne County had 1,120 deaths on June 8.

The per capita rates for the number of total COVID deaths in Southeastern Michigan remained the same for each entity on June 22; these rates have all remained the same since June 14. Detroit reported 212 total COVID deaths per 100,000 people (1,428 deaths), Wayne County reported a per capita rate of 106 (1,143 deaths), Macomb County reported a per capita rate of 99 (862 deaths) and Oakland County reported a per capita rate of 82 (1,037 deaths).

Chart 9, the five day rolling average of deaths, shows the number of new statewide deaths was reported at 12 on June 20,  an increase from the 11 new deaths reported the day before. While the number new statewide deaths did slightly increase on June 20, the overall number has not gone above 18 since June 10. In mid-April the number of new deaths in Michigan reached a peak at 145. Furthermore, Chart 10 shows how the number of deaths in Southeastern Michigan continues to decline, a trend we are eager to see continue. Oakland and Wayne counties each reported 1 new death, the highest in the region. These numbers are based on 5-day rolling averages. As the map below shows, Detroit and each county in the region experienced a decrease in the number of deaths from June 20 and the average number of deaths last week. Wayne County had the highest average number of deaths from the week of June 11 to 18 at 1.1, and on June 20 it was reported at 1. Detroit averaged 0.4 deaths last week and reported 0 new deaths on June 20.

While we know that the number of COVID cases and deaths has decreased throughout the month of June we also continue to see spikes in new cases periodically in different areas throughout the State. For example, note how majority of the number of new cases reported in Michigan on June 22 were from outside the State’s most populate region. Additionally, Southeastern Michigan has been the last area in the State to loosen restrictions. Overall, Michigan has experienced a recent uptick in the number of new cases. According to Mlive, the seven average for new COVID cases this week is 192 and last week it was 152. So, while the data shows that the curve has certainly flattened it also reflects how abiding by health recommendations set forth by the Centers for Disease Control plays a large role in flattening that curve.

COVID Puts Digital Divide on Display

There is a digital divide across the State of Michigan and across the country, largely related to  socioeconomic factors. As the coronavirus hit the US that divide grew even wider as access to public and private places that normally provide amenities such as the internet and computers were shuttered. The divide also grew as students had to finish the school year from home, and thousands were left without computers or internet access. While schools had printed resources available to ensure students could complete the school year, the access to the digital world-or lack thereof-was substantial. 

In the State of Michigan Detroit Public Schools had the highest number of households without internet access–82,894, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The second highest number in Michigan was the Flint School District which had 14,221 households without internet access. Looking only at Southeastern Michigan, Utica Community Schools had the second highest number of homes without internet access (behind Detroit) at 7,181 homes. There were 5 times as many households in the Detroit Public Schools district without internet access than in the Flint School District and 11 times as many households in Detroit Public Schools than in Utica Community Schools without internet access. Detroit Public Schools is the largest district in the State. 

While Detroit Public Schools is the largest district in the State it also provides education to students who live in some of the lowest median income households in the State. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, 47 percent of children in Detroit live below the poverty level. On the other end of the spectrum, Northville Public Schools is the wealthiest school district in the State with 1.4 percent of children living in poverty, according to the Census Bureau. There were only 755 homes within Northville Public Schools that did not have access to the internet. 

As the Statewide map shows (below), the majority of the districts throughout Michigan had less than 2,400 homes without internet access. For several smaller districts, such as those throughout the northern part of the lower peninsula and all those in the upper peninsula and the west side of the State, the lower numbers are understandable due to the smaller number of students in districts. But, what stands out is the districts on the map that are red, orange or blue. These larger urban areas including Flint, Grand Rapids and Lansing were all in the districts with the higher numbers of households without internet access.

The second map shows a more concentrated look at Southeastern Michigan. This highlights how several school districts closer to Detroit also had a higher number of homes without internet access. Some of these are also low or moderate income communities. For example, the lower half of Macomb County, which is more urban and densely populated, has four school districts where between about 7,200 and 14,000 households do not have access to the internet. 

According to the article “The Effects of Home Computers on Educational

Outcomes: Evidence from a Field Experiment with Community College Students” published in The Economic Journal, access to computers and the internet improves students’ skills to getting school work completed, which in turn improves educational outcomes. The Skillman Foundation, DTE Energy, General Motors and Quicken Loans have all worked to provide laptops to Detroit Public Schools students in need throughout this pandemic. Additionally, companies such as Comcast have opened their hotspots for more widespread internet access. However, the coronavirus has shed light on many different socioeconomic issues.  The digital divide and its impact on distance learning is certainly one of them.

Internet access has arguably come close to a fundamental need for many day-to-day functions, including for schoolwork.  The recognized need for the internet to aide in school work is supported by the recent partnerships, discussed above, with universities and corporations to provide access to those without it in the Detroit Public Schools district. Furthermore, in Kalamazoo, where 5,191 homes are without access in the public school district, a similar partnership was developed with the City through its Foundation for Aspirational Excellence Fund. This fund is supported through the City, the school district, the Kalamazoo Community Foundation and the Kalamazoo Promise. The director of the Kalamazoo Promise, Von Washington Jr., was recently quoted in MLive saying how the recent closure of public schools “exacerbated the educational inequities that are present in our community.”

As non-profits and corporations step up to, at least temporarily, fill the gap in internet access to ensure students can continue to learn, we must also ask what other ways the internet has become essential, especially during a pandemic. During the pandemic online doctors appointments were often the only access to medical care. Working remotely was mandated in many workplaces. Buying goods and groceries, via the internet has become a new way of life. Access to the internet has become so useful-even essential-in everyday life functions the United Nations passed a resolution in 2016 declaring it a human right. The partnerships discussed above related to the concerns of internet access for education equity also highlights how, at least nationally, more and more attention is being focused on the need for broadband access no matter where or who you are. Whether or not everyone will have access in the near future, and how that access will be supported-through public or private dollars, or combination of both-remains to be fully addressed though.

Despite Decrease in COVID Case, Death Numbers Michigan Remains Among the Hardest Hit

According to the State of Michigan, the total number of COVID cases in Michigan rose to 47,552on May 11, an increase of 414 cases from the previous day. This total was equivalent to 476 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 4). The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report. That upward trend of the curve has been flattening in recent weeks as the number of new COVID cases, both throughout the State and regionally, gradually declines. In Southeastern Michigan, Detroit reported the highest number of daily cases at 63 on May 9; this was a decline from the day before (Chart 3). Note that this five day rolling average causes these daily case and daily death charts to lag two days behind.

Chart 2 shows that over the last several days, based on the five-day rolling averages, the number of new COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan has remained fairly consistent, allowing the curve to flatten. The number of cumulative COVID cases remains the highest in Detroit at 9,712 on May 9, with Wayne County following at a reported 8,232 cases. On May 9, the five-day rolling average for the number of COVID cases in Oakland County was 7,694, and Macomb County reported 5,993.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State.

The City of Detroit had 1,464 COVID cases per 100,000 people on May 11, an increase from 1,455 the day before (Chart 4). This is based upon a reported increase of 65 new cases, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 9,851. Wayne County reported 1,240 cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County had 1,152 cases per 100,000 people. These per capita rates were based upon 8,343 total cases for Wayne and 7,752 for Oakland. Macomb County reported 901 cases per 100,000 people, which is based upon 6,064 cases.

Chart 5 shows that the per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people remained fairly stable for Detroit since May 8. On May 11 Detroit reported 10 new COVID cases per 100,000 people, which was equivalent to 65 new cases. Detroit experienced a small decline in its per capita rate while Monroe, Washtenaw and Wayne counties all experienced small increases. On May 11 Monroe County reported 3 daily COVID cases per 100,000 people, as did Washtenaw County; Wayne County reported 5 daily COVID cases per 100,000 people. These per capita rates were equivalent to 4, 10 and 54 new cases, respectively. Oakland County reported a per capita rate of 1 new case per 100,000 people on May 11, which was equivalent to 16 new cases, and Macomb County reported a rate of 3, which was equivalent to 22 new cases.

The State’s per capita rate was 3.8 new cases per 100,000 people, equivalent to 382 new cases. In total, of the 414 new cases, Southeastern Michigan accounted for 195 of them.

In Chart 6, the five-day rolling average for the number of deaths shows a continuing slow increase (a lagged number of 4,480 deaths, an increase of 67deaths). The actual reported COVID-19 deaths reached 4,584 on May 11, an increase of 33 deaths from the day prior. Of those 33 daily deaths reported on May 11, 16 were in Southeastern Michigan. While there was a small increase in the number of daily deaths between May 10 and 11, the numbers reported both days are still significantly lower than what has been reported for more than a month.

Chart 7 portrays how the total number of COVID deaths in Southeastern Michigan continues to increase, but that rate of increase has been gradually declining overall, showing that the curve is slowly starting to flatten. Chart 9 highlights how the curve is flattening throughout Southeastern Michigan, with the number of daily deaths throughout the region not reaching more than 15 in any one government entity on May 9. Oakland County reported the highest number of additional deaths on May 9 at 15, this was based on a 5-day rolling average calculation. Detroit and Wayne County each reported 13 additional daily deaths. Such declines in the number of daily deaths in Southeastern Michigan is why, in large part, the State continues to experience a decline in its daily death numbers (Chart 8), which reflects a slower increase in the overall number of COVID deaths.

Chart 10 portrays the total number of COVID deaths per 100,000 people. As of May 11, the cumulative total of COVID deaths per 100,000 people in Detroit was 177 (representing 1,192 deaths). In Wayne County there were 136 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (913 total deaths), in Oakland County there were 126 deaths per 100,000 people (849 total deaths), and in Macomb County there were 104 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (699 total).

The State of Michigan had 46 COVID deaths per 100,000 people, a rate that continues to remain lower than the four entities discussed above.

The fatality rate for Detroit and the State both declined by 0.1 percent on May 11. Detroit reported a fatality rate of 12.1 percent, and the State reported a fatality rate of 9.6 percent. Detroit and the three largest counties in the region continue to have fatality rates at or above 11 percent.

One reason we may be seeing such high fatality rates in Michigan is due to the low testing rates. When only having-presumably-a lower of number confirmed COVID cases than is actually likely due to the limited availability of tests, the fatality rate appears higher because the base comparison is smaller than it might be.

Michigan reported 33 additional deaths on May 11, and while this was an increase from the day before, it was still among the lowest number of daily deaths reported since late March. The data shows that daily death and case numbers continue to trend downward. However, Michigan remains one of the hardest hit states. It ranks seventh in the nation in confirmed cases and fourth in deaths.

Michigan COVID Cases Reach 38,210; Decline Yet to Be Seen

According to the State of Michigan, the total number of COVID cases in Michigan increased to 38,210 on April 27, which was an increase of 432 cases from the previous day. This total  was equivalent to 382 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 3) on April 27. The five-day rolling average for the total number of (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing or the quality of reporting or failure to report. The five day rolling average means  our daily case and death charts will lag two days behind. The COVID cases increased to 37,025, based on this approach. Even with the smoothing, however, there is no decline.

Chart 2 reflects the five-day rolling averages at the County level and for the City of Detroit. As was shown in Chart 2, Detroit continues to have the highest number of confirmed cases, recorded at 8,526 on April 25.  The number of cases in Wayne County increased to 6,988 for a five-day rolling average on April 25 while in Oakland County the number of cases increased to 6,832 and in Macomb County it increased to 5,114.

The City of Detroit showed total COVID per capita cases of 1,289 per 100,000 people on April 27, an increase from 1,280 the day before (Chart 3); this represents a reported increase of 66 new cases. Wayne County reported 1,069 cases per 100,000 people, and Macomb County had 795 cases per 100,000. The per capita rate in Oakland County dropped to 1,028 cases per 100,000 people, when it was 1,030 the day prior. This is a result of the State reporting a decrease in the total number of cases between April 26 and 27. This is likely a lapse in reporting reflected in Chart 3, Chart 4 and Chart 5. Macomb County had the highest per capita increase between April 26 and April 27 at 22 new cases per 100,000 people.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data was supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State.

As noted, Chart 4 shows that Oakland County had 0 new cases reported on April 27; this is due to the State reporting a decreased number of cases between April 26 and 27. To reflect this we show no new cases being reported on April 27 for Oakland County. (We’ll be checking on this number.) Macomb County reported the highest number of new COVID cases on April 27 at 142, Detroit reported 66, and Wayne County reported 58.

Chart 5 again shows that Macomb County had the highest increase in the number of new COVID cases between April 26 and April 27. On April 27 Macomb County reported 16 new COVID cases per 100,000 people; that County reported 7 new COVID cases per 100,000 on April 26. In Detroit there were 10 new COVID cases per 100,000 people from April 26 to April 27. In Wayne County there were 5 new COVID cases per 100,000 people on April 27 compared to 13 on April 26.

In Chart 6 the five-day rolling average for the number of deaths shows a continuing steady increase (a lagged number of 3,212 deaths, an increase of 119 deaths). The actual reported COVID-19 deaths reached 3,407 on April 27, an increase of 92 deaths from the day prior (Chart 7).

Breaking down the five-day rolling average of COVID deaths, Detroit still has a far higher rate of increase than the other units. Wayne County is second, followed by Oakland and Macomb counties. Each county but Monroe and St. Clair experienced an increase in the total number of deaths. These increases continue to be represented in Charts 9 and 10.

Chart 9 represents the total number of COVID deaths per 100,000 people. For Detroit on April 27 there were 141 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (equivalent to 950 deaths). In Wayne County there were 100 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (672 total deaths), in Oakland County there were 94 deaths per 100,000 people (631 total deaths) and in Macomb County there were 78 COVID deaths per 1000,000 people on April 27 (672 total). Detroit, Macomb, Oakland, Washtenaw and Wayne counties all experienced a small increase in the number of new deaths, with Detroit experiencing an increase of 28 and Wayne County experiencing an increase of 14. 

Chart 10 shows the five-day rolling average for the number of new COVID deaths, Here we see a number of counties showing a decline in additional deaths, a good sign if this trend continues.

Notably in Chart 11 we see that the fatality rate in Detroit on April 27 decreased from 10.7 percent to 10.1 percent. The data also shows that the fatality rate in Macomb County is slowly decreasing. Just last week it was the highest in the region and now it has decreased below Detroit’s rate and from its peak of 10.1 percent to 9.9 percent. The State’s fatality rate on April 27 was 8.9 percent, a small decrease from the fatality rate the day prior. These declines may represent real changes or simply an increase in testing (the denominator here).

It appears as though the number of deaths is slowing, however we also know that the State releases additional COVID death numbers through another method of confirmation sporadically throughout the week. Such data releases could reveal that we are not slowing the spread and impact of the virus as much as we think. The Governor did note yesterday that they believe there is a plateauing in the number of cases and deaths in the State.

Five-Day Rolling Averages Paint More Vivid Picture on COVID Spread in Michigan

The total number of COVID cases in Michigan increased to 37,778 on April 26 (Chart 1), compared to  37,203 the day before; this was a 575 daily case increase. This was equivalent to 378 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 2) on April 26.

In Chart 2, and subsequent Charts throughout this post (Charts 4, 9, 12, 15), you will also see the five-day rolling averages for the number of confirmed cases and deaths throughout the State and Southeastern Michigan. By using a 5-day simple moving average we are able to smooth out the data, making it less sensitive to changes in testing. This formula helps to adjust for changes or increasing in testing or fluctuations in the quality of reporting or failure to report.  Technically, we take information from the two days before and two days after in addition to information from the reported data from each day and sum that information and divide by 5. On April 24, which is the most recent data we have for the 5-day rolling average, the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the Michigan was 36,176.

The total number of COVID cases reported to date in the City of Detroit reached 8,613 on April 26. Wayne County (excluding Detroit) had 7,135 cases, Oakland County had 6,928 cases, and Macomb County had 5,203 cases (Chart 3). The number of confirmed cases in Washtenaw, Livingston, Monroe and St. Clair counties combined totaled 1,892, a 50 case increase since Friday.

Chart 4 reflects the 5-day rolling averages at the County level and for the City of Detroit. As was shown in Chart 3, Detroit continues to have the highest number of confirmed cases, recorded at 8,395 on April 24. Oakland and Wayne counties follow similar trends in these daily reports. On April 24 Oakland County had 6,742 cases and Wayne County had 6,856 cases. 

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data was supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State.

people on April 26, an increase from 1,271 the day before (Chart 5). Wayne County reported 1,061 cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County’s cases per 100,000 was 1,030. Macomb County had 773 COVID cases per 100,000 people. Wayne County experienced the highest increase at 20 cases per capita between April 25 and April 26. Additionally, this chart shows the number of COVID cases in Michigan per 100,000 people was 378.3. Detroit, Macomb, Oakland and Wayne counties all had higher per capita rates than the State.

Chart 6 shows that the daily increases in the number of new COVID cases.

Wayne County had the highest increase in the number of new daily COVID cases at 135 on April 26. In fact, Wayne and St. Clair counties were the only two to post COVID increases between April 25 and April 26. St. Clair County had 5 total new COVID cases, which was 2 more than the day before. Detroit had 65 new cases on April 26, a decrease from the 75 posted the day before. Oakland County reported 47 new COVID cases on April 26 while Macomb County reported 64.

Chart 7 further shows how Wayne County was the only one in the region to exhibit a visible increase in the number of daily confirmed COVID cases. Wayne County reported 13 new COVID cases per 100,000 people while Detroit reported 10, Oakland County reported 4 and Macomb County reported 7.

It was reported by the State of Michigan that on April 26 the total of COVID-19 deaths reached 3,315 (Chart 8). The 3,315 total deaths reported for April 26 was 41 deaths higher than what was reported on April 25 (Chart 10). The 41 new deaths reported on April 26 was the lowest number of new deaths reported in the State since March 29.

Chart 9 is another new chart showing the 5-day rolling average for total COVID deaths in Michigan. On April 24 there were 3,093 deaths.

Of the total number of raw deaths reported, Detroit and Wayne County each had 10 new deaths, Oakland County had 8 and Macomb County had 3 on April 26. The number of new deaths reported on April 26 is significantly lower than the numbers reported on April 25-Detroit alone had 73 new deaths on April 25 and Wayne County had 35 new deaths (Chart 14). The addition of these new daily deaths brings the totals to the following: 922 COVID deaths in Detroit, 520 in Macomb County, 620 in Oakland County, and 658 in Wayne County (Chart 11).

When looking at the 5-day rolling averages for the number of new daily COVID deaths and overall death totals we again see smoother lines, specifically in Chart 15. Using the 5-day rolling average for the number of new daily COVID deaths we see the growth of COVID deaths over time, but it appears each governmental unit is now showing declines in their rolling averages. The number of new daily COVID deaths peaked on April 9 in Oakland County at 26, for Wayne County the peak occurred on April 11 at 34 new deaths and for Macomb County the peak was on April 15 with 31 new deaths. Detroit appeared to peak at 54 cases and dropped to 39. Wayne and Oakland counties reported 22 and 23 new deaths, respectively.  Even with a rolling average, the tendency for deaths to drop on weekends because of slower reporting could be a reason for these results.

The cumulative number of COVID fatalities per 100,000 people was 137 for Detroit, 98 for Wayne County, 92 for Oakland County and 77 for Macomb County (Chart 13).

Chart 16  shows that the fatality rate for Michigan slightly decreased to 8.7 percent; it was at 8.8 percent the day prior. The fatality rates for Macomb County, Detroit and Wayne County all remained above the State’s rate (the dotted red line) on April 26. Detroit’s fatality rate became the highest in region at 10.7 percent while Macomb County’s decreased to 10 percent. Oakland and Wayne counties had fatality rates at 9 and 9.2 percent, respectively.

The data has shown possible slowing of the spread of the virus in Michigan has slowed down. However, a Free Press article from April 26 said testing has slowed down in Michigan due to a shortage of supplies, such as swabs and reagents. With a decrease in the number of tests available this will certainly impact the number of cases the state reports.

Macomb County’s COVID Death Rate Highest in the Region

The total number of COVID cases in Michigan increased to 31,424 (Chart 1), which was equivalent to 314 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 2) on April 19. Of those total COVID cases, the City of Detroit had 7,604 cases, Oakland County had 6,109 cases, Wayne County (excluding Detroit) had 6,088 cases and Macomb County had 4,360 cases (Chart 3).  The number of confirmed cases in Washtenaw, Livingston, Monroe and St. Clair counties combined totaled 1,626, with Washtenaw County accounting for 870 of those cases,  according to the most recent data from the State.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data was supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State.

In Chart 4 we see that the City of Detroit has consistently had the highest number of COVID cases per 100,000 people, which was a rate of 1,130 on April 19. Oakland County had the second highest rate at 908 cases per 100,000 people and Wayne County (excluding Detroit) had 905 cases. Macomb County had 648 COVID cases per 100,000 people.

Chart 5 shows that there have been increases in the number of new daily COVID cases for Detroit and Macomb and Monroe counties. The number of new cases in Detroit on April 19 was 107, an increased from the new reported new cases of 83 on April 18. In Macomb County the number of new cases on April 19 was 109 and in Monroe County it was 9. For Oakland County, there was 88 new COVID cases reported on April 19, a continued decrease in the number of new cases since April 14. Wayne County has been experiencing a decrease in the number of new cases since April 16; on April 19 Wayne County reported 114 new cases.

According to the data, Detroit had a rate of 16 new COVID cases per 100,000 people on April 19; this was an increase through the weekend but a rate that is about half what it was during last week, and it was huge drop from Detroit’s peak. Macomb County was the only other county in the region with a rate about 10; Macomb County had a rate of 12 new COVID cases per 100,000 people on April 19 (Chart 6). 

In addition to the raw data of confirmed cases, we also show the percent change in the number of cases reported day-to-day. On April 19 the percent change from April 18 was 2 percent, a decrease from the day’s prior change of 2.6 percent.

It was reported by the State of Michigan that on April 19 the total of COVID-19 deaths reached 2,391. This was a 3.6 percent change from April 18, which was nearly same as the percent change in new daily deaths from the day prior (Chart 9). The 2,391 total deaths reported for April 19 was 83 deaths higher than what was reported on April 17 (Chart 10); this was two deaths higher than the number of daily deaths reported on April 18.

Of the total deaths reported, the number of COVID deaths in Detroit increased by 29 from the day prior. On April 19 the total  COVID deaths across time was 619 (Chart 11). Also on April 19, the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services also reported 501 total deaths in Wayne County (excluding Detroit), 471 in Oakland County and 391 in Macomb County (Chart 11). 

On a per capita basis, per 100,000 people, Detroit also continues to have the highest number of deaths per 100,000 people at 92 on April 19 (Chart 12). Wayne County had 74 COVID deaths per 100,000 people, Oakland County had 70 and Macomb County had 58.

Chart 13  shows that Detroit reported the highest number of new deaths on April 19 at 29; Wayne County reported 20 new daily deaths, and Oakland County reported 13. For Oakland County, the number of new daily deaths has continued to decrease since April 16; also note the number of new cases in Oakland County has been decreasing since April 14.

The final two charts below show the case death rates for the State of Michigan and for Detroit and the seven counties in Southeastern Michigan. To determine the rates we divided the reported deaths from each day by the number of total COVID cases each day.

On April 19 the COVID case death rate in Michigan was 7.5 percent; a slight increase from the 7.4 percent death rate reported the day before.

Of Detroit and the counties in the region, Macomb County had the highest case death rate on April 19 at 9 percent; it has been the highest since April 14. Wayne County (excluding Detroit) also had a higher death rate than Detroit. Wayne County’s death rate was 8.2 percent on April 19 and Detroit’s was 8.1 percent. The death rate for Oakland County was 7.7 percent, and, while the number of new cases and new deaths has been decreasing since in Oakland County over the last few days the death rate has been increasing.

These rates of death are very sensitive to the number of tests that are being completed across the region. In state or countries where far more testing is completed, death rates may be substantially lower. The failure of the CDC to complete and broadly distribute an early and accurate test has had huge consequences.

As the number of new COVID cases and deaths is increasing at a slower rate we do see that death rates for at least Detroit, Macomb, Oakland and Wayne counties are still increasing. While we know that the Stay at Home order is playing a large role in slowing the spread of the virus, how the virus is affecting those who have been infected is something we must watch, both in terms of death rates and other long-term effects for survivors.

Detroit, Wayne County Remain Epicenter for Coronavirus

The total number of COVID cases in Michigan increased to 29,263 (Chart 1), which was equivalent to 293 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 2) on April 16. Of those total COVID cases, the City of Detroit had 7,382 cases, Oakland County had 5,778 cases, Wayne County (excluding Detroit) had 5,619 cases and Macomb County had 3,992 cases (Chart 3).  The number of confirmed cases in Washtenaw, Livingston, Monroe and St. Clair counties combined totaled 1,538, with Washtenaw County accounting for 826 of those cases,  according to the most recent data from the State.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data was supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State.

In Chart 4 we see that the City of Detroit has consistently had the highest number of COVID cases per 100,000 people, which was a rate of 1,097 on April 16. Oakland County had the second highest rate at 859 cases per 100,000 people and Wayne County (excluding Detroit) had 835 cases. Macomb County had 593 COVID cases per 100,000 people. When looking at Chart 4 we also see that there were per capita increases for every county between April 15 and April 16, with Detroit having the largest day-to-day per capita rate increase at 36.

Chart 5 shows that Detroit, Macomb, St. Clair, Wayne and Washtenaw counties experienced decreases in the number of new COVID cases between April 15 and April 16. On April 16, Detroit reported the highest number of new COVID cases at 246. Wayne County had 211 new cases, Oakland County had 202 and Macomb County had 200. Washtenaw County had the fifth highest number in the region at 28 new cases.

When looking at new COVID cases on a per capita basis, the data shows that Detroit and Macomb County still have the highest rates (Chart 6). According to the data, on April 16 Detroit had 37 new COVID cases per 100,000 people and Macomb County had 23 new COVID cases per 100,000 people; Wayne County had 20 and Oakland County had 16.  In Oakland County, the number of new COVID cases per 100,000 people has been decreasing since April 14.

In addition to the raw data of confirmed cases, we also show the percent change in the number of cases reported day-to-day. On April 16 the percent change from April 15 was 4.29 percent, an increase from the day’s prior change of 4 percent.

Originally, we were reporting the day-to-day percent change in the number of cases from March 16. However, there was a spike in the number of tests available early on that made this data set also spike (on March 18 the day-to-day percent change as 320%). We have now started showing percent change data from March 21 forward to allow readers a more precise visual. If you would like to see the earlier versions of this data set please review our earlier posts. 

It was reported by the State of Michigan that on April 16 the total of COVID-19 deaths reached 2,093. This was a 9 percent increase from April 15, which had a slightly smaller increase of 8.7 percent of the day prior (Chart 9). The 2,093 total deaths reported for April 16 was 172 deaths higher than what was reported on April 15 (Chart 10). According to the State of Michigan, the reported increase in deaths on April 16 is related to a new weekly death certificate review the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services has put in place. As a part of this process, records that identify COVID-19 infection as a contributing factor to death are compared against all laboratory confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the Michigan Disease Surveillance System (MDSS). If a death certificate is matched to a confirmed COVID-19 case and that record in the MDSS does not indicate a death, the MDSS record is updated to indicate the death and the appropriate local health department is notified. These matched deaths are then included with mortality information posted to the State’s Michigan Coronavirus website. As a result of this week’s assessment, the data from April 16 includes 65 additional deaths that have been identified through this methodology.

Of the total deaths reported, the number of COVID deaths in Detroit on April 16 toped over 500 at 546. On April 16, the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services also reported 435 total deaths in Wayne County (excluding Detroit), 420 in Oakland County and 354 in Macomb County. Washtenaw County had 25 deaths and Livingston, Monroe and St. Clair counties all had 10 deaths or less (Chart 11).

On a per capita basis, per 100,000 people, Detroit also continues to have the highest number of deaths per 100,000 people at 81; there were 71 deaths per 100,000 people in Detroit on April 15 (Chart 12). On April 16 Wayne County had 65 COVID deaths per 100,000 people, Oakland County had 62, and Macomb County had 53.

The number of new COVID deaths reported in Detroit on April 16 was nearly three times higher than those reported in Wayne, Oakland or Macomb counties. On April 16 there were 71 new COVID deaths in Detroit, 26 in Wayne County (excluding Detroit), 28 in Oakland County and 24 in Macomb County. Monroe County reported 0 new deaths.

Detroit and Wayne County continue to remain the epicenter of the virus. When looking at the entire state, only one county in the Lower Peninsula has not reported any coronavirus cases and that is Benzie County (near Traverse City). The spread has not stopped, and in areas such as Detroit and Wayne and Macomb counties it doesn’t appear to have slowed much. Oakland County though has reported a decrease in the number of new daily cases for the last few days, and the number of new daily deaths has remained stagnant for the same time period. In Macomb County, the number of new daily deaths has decreased but the number of new daily cases has continued to increase.

COVID Death Still Steadily Climbing in Michigan

The total number of COVID cases in Michigan increased to 27,001 (Chart 1), which was equivalent to 270 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 2) on April 14. Of those total COVID cases, the City of Detroit had 7,004 cases, Oakland County had 5,364 cases, Wayne County (excluding Detroit) had 5,002 cases and Macomb County had 3,620 cases (Chart 3).  The number of confirmed cases in Washtenaw, Livingston, Monroe and St. Clair counties combined totaled 1,471, with Washtenaw County accounting for 772 of those cases,  according to the most recent data from the State.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus. Historical data was supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State.

In Chart 4 we see that the City of Detroit has consistently had the highest number of COVID cases per 100,000 people, which was a rate of 1,004 on April 14. Oakland County had the second highest rate at 797 cases per 100,000 people and Wayne County (excluding Detroit) had 774 cases. Macomb County had 538 COVID cases per 100,000 people.

Chart 5 shows that Detroit experienced a decrease in the number of new daily confirmed cases from April 13 to April 14 while Wayne, Oakland and Macomb experienced increases. Wayne County had the highest number of new cases on April 14 at 338, followed by Oakland County with 291 new cases. Detroit reported  223 new cases on April 14, a decrease from the 279 new COVID cases reported on April 13. Macomb County reported 202 new cases on April 14.

When looking at new COVID cases on a per capita basis, the data shows that Detroit continues to have the highest rates (Chart 6). According to the data, on April 14 Detroit had 33 new COVID cases per 100,000 people and Wayne County had 31. Oakland and Macomb counties each had 23 new COVID cases per 100,000 people on April 14.

In addition to the raw data of confirmed cases, we also show the percent change in the number of cases reported day-to-day. For Michigan, the largest percent change thus far reported was on March 19 at 320 percent-this increase was also likely related to an increase in  the number of available tests at that time. On April 14 the percent change from April 13 was 5.33 percent, an increase from the day’s prior change of 4 percent. Recall that the state has reported that new tests are being implemented, so this increase could be a result of this. Test more; find more cases.

It was reported by the State of Michigan that on April 14 the total of COVID-19 deaths reached 1,768. This was a percent change of 10.4 percent from April 13, which was an increase from the 7.7 percent increase of the day prior (Chart 9). The 1,768 total deaths reported for April 14 was 166 deaths higher than what was reported on April 13 (Chart 10). The new deaths reported on April 14 was the second day of increases; both April 13 and April 14 had more than 100 new COVID deaths each day.

Of the total deaths reported, Detroit continues to make up the majority of them. On April 14, the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services reported 427 total deaths in Detroit-the highest total number of deaths in one city or county in the state. Wayne County, excluding Detroit, continued to have a higher number of total deaths than Oakland County. On April 14 there were 393 COVID deaths in Wayne County and 364 deaths in Oakland County (Chart 11). The data shows that number of COVID deaths may be slowing in Oakland County, at least compared to the rate of deaths in Wayne County.

On a per capita basis, per 100,000 people, Detroit also continues to have the highest number of deaths per 100,000 people at 63 (Chart 12). The rate of  COVID deaths in Macomb County has increased by 12 in just the last two days. On April 12 there 32 COVID deaths per 100,000 people in Macomb County and on April 14 that had increased to 44.

Macomb County also had the highest of new daily COVID deaths for April 14 at 53; just two days prior (April 12) 8 deaths were reported for Macomb County. In Detroit there were 31 new COVID deaths, a continued increase since April 12. In Wayne County a decrease in the number of new deaths continued with 28 being reported for April 14. Oakland County had 17 deaths on April 14.

Even though Detroit still has the highest total number of deaths, the increases in deaths in places such as Macomb County highlights that the virus is spreading out of the urban core and into the suburbs.

Despite some saying that Michigan is turning the corner, there is little evidence to this effect. Deaths, our strongest indicator, are still climbing steadily. Bridge Magazine cited Michigan as having the highest number of coronavirus deaths per capita and Deadline Detroit said Michigan has conducted the fewest number of tests per capita. Due to this gap in testing we may see the number of deaths per confirmed case be much greater than other states,  and we anticipate that the number of confirmed cases may rise due to testing but the true infection rate may not be rising or rising as quickly.  Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has recently authorized additional testing criteria and sites and many more will likely be getting tested. 

According to Whitmer, all projections regarding the apex of the curve and when it will flatten are based on social distancing and as many people remaining home as possible. Now is not a time to loosen up on any restrictions you have been following.