Various measures of labor utilization show improvement in Michigan’s, Metro-Detroit’s economy

November 30, 2015 by drawingdadmin | Leave a comment

From August 2015 to September 2015, the unemployment rate across the state increased and in the city of Detroit (monthly);
The Purchasing Manager’s Index for Southeast Michigan decreased from October 2015 to November 2015 (monthly);
Commodity Price Index increased from October 2015 to November 2015 for Southeast Michigan (monthly);
Standard and Poor’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the Detroit Metropolitan Statistical Area shows home prices are still slowly increasing.

According to the most recent data provided by the Michigan Department of Technology, Management, and Budget, the unemployment rate for the state of Michigan increased from 4.7 percent in September to 5 percent in October. Unemployment in the city of Detroit decreased from 12.7 percent in August to 11.5 percent in September.

Displayed above is an alternative measure of labor utilization in the state of Michigan at an annual basis. This measure of unemployment, which includes discouraged workers and marginally attached workers, shows that this too has been decreasing. This measure of labor utilization peaked in 2009 at 15 and by the third quarter of 2015 it decreased to 7.6. From 2009 to 2015 there has been a steady decrease.

From August to September, the number of people employed in the city of Detroit increased by 386, for a total of 214,192 people employed in the city in September. From March to September, the number of people employed in the city increased by 4,775. In the last year, the month of March had the lowest number of people employed in the city of Detroit.

The above chart shows the number of people employed in the auto manufacturing industry in the Detroit Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) (Detroit-Warren-Livonia) from August 2014 to August 2015. From August to September the number of people employed in this industry increased by 1,400, to a total of 106,700. This number is 11,300 more than the number of workers employed in the auto manufacturing industry in September of 2013.

The Purchasing Manger’s Index (PMI) is a composite index derived from five indicators of economic activity: new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories. A PMI above 50 indicates the economy is expanding.

According to the most recent data released on Southeast Michigan’s Purchasing Manager’s Index, the PMI for November 2015 was 57.1, a decrease of 1.3 of a point from the prior month. It was also an increase of .3 from November of 2014.

The Commodity Price Index, which is a weighted average of selected commodity prices, was recorded at 45.5 points in November 2015, which was 1.7 points higher than the previous month and 16.3 points lower than November 2014.

The above charts show the Standard and Poor’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the Detroit Metropolitan Statistical Area. The index includes the price for homes that have sold but does not include the price of new home construction, condos, or homes that have been remodeled.

According to the index, the average price of single-family dwellings sold in Metro Detroit was $100,680 in September 2015. This was an increase of $5,610 from September of 2014 and an increase of $50 from August of 2015.

Detroit’s housing costs increasing faster than incomes

November 17, 2015November 17, 2015 by drawingdadmin | Leave a comment

Throughout Southeastern Michigan monthly housing costs for renters are increasing generally faster than their monthly household incomes, which in many cases are actually declining, according to data from the American Community Survey. Even in areas where the renters’ incomes improvements exceeded the change in overall regional housing costs between 2010 and 2013, monthly housing costs continued to increase at a rapid pace. There were areas in the region though, particularly Oakland County, where monthly housing cost increases stayed below the monthly household income increases. However, Detroit’s overall housing costs generally increased at a faster pace than the monthly income changes (largely declines) of residents.

Between 2010 and 2013 all Oakland County communities experienced an increase in household income while many communities throughout the rest of Southeastern Michigan continued to experience a decrease in their household income. St. Clair County had the most communities where the household income decreased more than 9 percent (three-Columbus, Ira and Kimball townships) between 2010 and 2013; the only other county where a community had such an income decrease was Washtenaw with Bridgewater Township.

When just looking at renter’s income change between 2010 and 2013 we see that there were fewer households that experienced an income decrease and more that saw their incomes increase.

According to Governing.com, Michigan is one of three states that suffers from housing affordability burdens, particularly in the rental realm. Incomes may be increasing throughout the state, but for renters earning minimum wage, those small increases often equate to the increases in monthly housing costs, especially as demand for rental units remains high.

Despite renters throughout the region experiencing income increases, these increases were not equal to or more than their housing costs in several communities. In St. Clair County all of the communities experienced housing cost changes above those of the renters’ monthly income. This was not unique to just St. Clair County though. Rather every county in the region, with the exception of Livingston and Oakland, had renters whose income changes weren’t keeping up with their housing cost increases. With increases in Oakland County’s renters’ income outpacing their monthly housing cost increases this could mean a number of things, including: rental prices are not increasing as quickly as places such as Detroit or Warren because demand is lower; these renters’ incomes are growing as the economy stabilizes (for places like Ferndale, Royal Oak and Rochester we see their income increases are above that of non-renters) while in areas like Detroit the median household income is lower, income growth can’t keep up with cost of housing increases.

A series of five maps drilling down into the City of Detroit (presented below) shows that pockets of the city experienced household income growth between 2010 and 2013. While there was some overlap between overall income growth and renters’ income growth, this wasn’t true for every Census Tract. One area where there was such a difference was just east of Hamtramck. Here we see that Census Tract experienced overall income growth between 2010 and 2013 but the renters there did not see their incomes increase. Renters in that area also experienced monthly housing cost increases that exceeded their income changes. In this area of the city, homeownership also appears to be more prevalent than in other areas of the city.

Throughout other parts of the city we see that the majority of Census Tracts experienced an increase in renters’ household income between 2010 and 2013. But, the increases in monthly housing cost offset most income increases. This could indicate a shift toward gentrification in some areas as long-term, lower-income renters cannot afford increasing monthly housing costs as demand for rental units in Detroit continues to grow. With a current vacancy rate of 5 percent and a desire for many suburbanites to live in areas such as Downtown, Midtown and Corktown, housing costs in the city continue to grow, according to the MetroTimes (link). It is these areas where renters experienced income growth well above the overall changes in the City of Detroit. Not every Census Tract in these neighborhoods though had renters with income changes above the overall change experienced by the city as whole.

Murders across Southeastern Michigan decreasing

October 12, 2015 by drawingdadmin | Leave a comment

Detroit may no longer be grimly perched a top the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s murder-rate list (St. Louis took that spot for 2014), but regionally it still stands out. The city of Detroit has consistently had the highest number of murder/non-negligent manslaughter offenses throughout the region, even prior to 2009. While the six-year span from 2009-2014 the city’s murder offenses number peaked at 348 in 2009, the counties in the region did not experience the same trend. Rather, in the same time frame, the number of murder/non-negligent manslaughter offenses in Oakland County peaked in 2011 at 33, the only year in that time frame in which there were more offenses there than in Wayne County. In 2011 Wayne County’s number dropped to 26 from 35 the previous year; that same year Detroit’s number increased to 291 from 319.

From 2012 to 2013 all the counties in the region, with the exception of Oakland and Monroe counties, experienced an increase in the number of murder/non-negligent manslaughter offenses. Wayne County experienced the largest increase at 9; Oakland County’s number dropped by 10 that year. From 2013 to 2014 Wayne County again experienced a dropped, from 49 to 17. While these numbers do not include Detroit’s murder data, it does follow the same trend of Detroit’s murder numbers dropping to an all time low in 2014. In 2014, according to the Michigan State Police Data, it was Oakland County with the highest number of murders (excluding the city of Detroit) at 18. Although Oakland County had the highest county number in 2014 it has been experiencing a decrease since 2011, when it reached a peak of 33.

While Detroit may have the highest number of murder offenses in the region, it has experienced a decrease in that, and violent crime overall. In 2014, according to information provided by Police Chief James Craig, Detroit had the fewest number of criminal homicide offenses in the last 47 years. The chart shows just how drastic the number of murder offenses is between Detroit and other regional cities though. With Detroit’s murder offense number at 300 in 2014 the city police agency that reported the second highest murder offenses in the region was Inkster with a number of 6. Warren, which is the second largest city both in the region and the state, had four murder offenses and Sterling Heights, the fourth largest city in the state, had zero.

Throughout the state though Flint had the second highest number of reported murder offenses at 28 and Saginaw came in third with 11.

According to 2013 data from the Michigan State Police, which is mapped below, there were 306 murders/non-negligent manslaughter occurrences in the city of Detroit in 2013 and 96 everywhere else throughout the region. St. Clair County had the least, with just three in the county in 2013, two of which occurred in Port Huron. Wayne County had the highest number of murders/non-negligent manslaughter offenses in 2013, with 306 occurring in Detroit and 49 occurring elsewhere throughout the county. Even when removing Detroit data from Wayne County’s numbers, Wayne County would have still sat atop the list regionally. Of the 49 murders/non-negligent murder offenses that occurred in Wayne County, outside of Detroit, 15 occurred in Inkster, according to the Michigan State Police.

Metro-Detroit’s home prices increasing

August 3, 2015 by drawingdadmin | Leave a comment

From May 2015 to June 2015, the unemployment rate across the state and in the city of Detroit’s decreased (monthly);
The Purchasing Manager’s Index for Southeast Michigan increased from May 2015 to June 2015 (monthly);
Commodity Price Index increased from May 2015 to June 2015 for Southeast Michigan (monthly);
Standard and Poor’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the Detroit Metropolitan Statistical Area shows home prices are about $3,000 higher than this time last year.

According to the most recent data provided by the Michigan Department of Technology, Management, and Budget, the unemployment rate for the state of Michigan decreased from 5.9 percent in May to 5.8 percent in June. During this same period, unemployment in the city of Detroit also marginally increased from 13 in May percent to 13.1 percent in June. However, it is 3.3 percentage points lower than where it was in June of 2014.

From May to June, the number of people employed in the city of Detroit increased by about 900, leading to a total of 212,107 people employed in June. Since March, the number of people employed in the city has increased by 2,690. In the last year, the month of March had the lowest number of people employed in the city of Detroit.

The above chart shows the number of people employed in the auto manufacturing industry in the Detroit Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) (Detroit-Warren-Livonia) from June 2014 to June 2015. From May to June the number of people employed in this industry increased by 1,600, to a total of 108,500. The June number is the highest employment number this industry has had in the last year.

According to the most recent data released on Southeast Michigan’s Purchasing Manager’s Index, the PMI for June 2015 was 66.1, an increase of 0.3 of a point from the prior month. It was also an increase of 19.0 from June of 2014.

The Commodity Price Index, which is a weighted average of selected commodity prices, was recorded at 60.7 points in June 2015, which was 4.4 points higher than the previous month and 4.2 points lower than June 2014.

According to the index, the average price of single-family dwellings sold in Metro Detroit was $101,930 in May 2015. This was an increase of $3,040 since May of 2014 but a decrease of $1,082 from April of 2015.

Veterans in SE Michigan tend to fare better with income and employment

July 8, 2015 by drawingdadmin | Leave a comment

Last week we examined where veterans live throughout the seven-county region of Southeastern Michigan and this week we take a deeper look into the socioeconomic picture for the region’s veterans. Overall, we see that veterans in the region in 2013 tended to have a higher median income level than non-veterans. Also we see that a lower percentage of veterans in the area fell under the poverty line in 2013 than non-veterans. Unemployment status for veterans throughout the region, however, varied.

This data presented in the maps below is from the 2013 American Community Survey.

When looking at median income in Southeastern Michigan at the municipal level, we see that it tended to be higher for veterans than it was for non-veterans. Municipalities such as Bloomfield Hills, Orchard Lake, and Lake Angelus – all of which have higher median income levels than the region as a whole (link to post) – also had higher veteran median income levels than a city such as Highland Park, for example, which has low median income levels.

It should be noted, however, that veterans make up a smaller portion of the population than non-veterans, and as a result, sample size may have had an influence on these numbers.

The unemployment rate among veterans varied much more than it does among non-veterans. The rate among veterans varied from 0.6 percent to 43.4 percent For non-veterans, it ranges from 2.2 percent to in 34.4 percent The locations with high unemployment also varied significantly between veterans and non-veterans, with 12 locations across five counties having over 25 percent unemployment among veterans – rates that were only seen in Detroit and Highland Park among non-veterans.

A lower percentage of veterans were below poverty status, compared to non-veterans throughout Southeastern Michigan. For both veterans and non-veterans, Highland Park had the highest percentage of residents below the poverty line: 46.2 percent of non-veterans and 25.2 percent of veterans. Only two other municipalities had more than 21.5 percent of veterans living below the poverty line: Chelsea (37.9%) and Hazel Park (27.7%). Clyde Township (0.2%) had the lowest percentage of veterans living below the poverty line.

While there were only three municipalities with 21.5 percent or more of veterans living below the poverty line, there were nine municipalities throughout the region where 21.5 percent or more of the non-veteran population was living below the poverty line. Such municipalities included Ecorse, Detroit, Pontiac, Ypsilanti and Port Huron.

Overall we see that while veterans appeared to fare better than non-veterans in terms of income and poverty status, and in some cases employment.

WSJ: 28 percent of Wayne County homes are worth less than their mortgage balance

June 24, 2015June 24, 2015 by drawingdadmin | Leave a comment

The Wall Street Journal recently posted an interactive map that shows the percentage of homes in counties across the nation that were worth less than what was owed on them during the first quarter of 2015. Here, we see that in Wayne County 28 percent of homes were worth less than the mortgage balance on them. In Oakland County that number was 13 percent and in Macomb County 17 percent of homes were worth less than what is owed on them.

Ann Arbor’s renter occupancy rate is highest in the region

June 15, 2015 by drawingdadmin | Leave a comment

Renter-occupancy in the Southeast Michigan makes up only about a quarter of the region’s housing tenure rates, according to the 2013 American Survey. The majority of municipalities in the region had fewer than 20 percent of residents residing in a rental property. However, there were several cities near Detroit with renter occupancy rates above 35 percent. Washtenaw County had the highest overall renter occupancy rate at 39.2 percent probably because of the number of students attending universities there; Wayne County came in second to that at 35.2 percent.

As defined by the American Community Survey, residency is defined as where an individual was staying at the time of the survey, so long as they were, or intended to be there, for two months or longer.

According to the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University (JCHS) renting has been an increasing nationally. For example, in 2013 about 43 million households (or more than 35 percent of the all U.S. households) rented rather than owned a home. JCHS attributed the changing homeownership rates largely to the Great Recession. JCHS suggested that following 2008, homeownership was perceived as more risky as people witnessed the large wave of foreclosures that occurred, the drop in home values, and the costs of relocating in order to find better and more stable employment. The freedom renting provides, particularly for millennials, was noted as another reason why the rental market is growing. For these reasons, as well as the expected increase of immigrants coming to the U.S., over the next 10 years, JCHS predicted that the number of renter households will increase by up to 4.7 million by 2023.

Although renting is growing nationally, the JCHS states that rates are higher in central cities where land prices are high and r pool is made up of those whose incomes are below $30,000. In terms of age, the JCHS said low income housing is centralized. The Joint Center said more millennials tend to rent compared to older generations, such as the baby boomers.

In the seven counties of Southeastern Michigan, 26.6 percent of households were renter occupied in 2013. Among municipalities, Detroit was a hub for rental occupancy in the region: 48.1% of households being renter occupied. There were also pockets of high rental residency outside the city. Many of those locations border the city of Detroit. For example, Ferndale had a renter occupancy rate of 37.9 percent, Hazel Park’s rate was 40.9 percent, and the city of River Rouge’s was 43.5 percent.

Pontiac, the county seat of Oakland County, had a renter occupancy rate of 51.0 percent, a rate higher than Detroit’s. As noted earlier, millennials and those with incomes below $30,000 a year are more likely to rent. The median age in Pontiac in 2013 was 33.5 years and the median household income was $27,528.

The city of Ann Arbor’s renter occupancy rate was 54.3 percent, also above Detroit’s rate. While Ann Arbor’s median income in 2013 was $55,003, it is home to the University of Michigan, which has a student population of about 43,000. A median age of 27.5 and the large student population better explains the high rental occupancy rate there.

Other pockets of high rental occupancy rates were along the I-275 corridor, near Port Huron in St. Clair County and along Lake Erie and the western border of Monroe County.

The city of Detroit had one of the highest rates of renter occupied households in the seven county region at 48.1 percent. There were only eight census tracts in the city where 20 percent or fewer of the homes were not renter occupied. The areas in the city with the highest renter occupied rate were the downtown area, Midtown (where Wayne State University is located), and the Jefferson East area. Additionally, the median income in Detroit was $26,325 in 2013 and the median age was 34.9.

As one of the many efforts to revitalize Detroit, companies and organizations such as Wayne State University, the Detroit Medical Center, Henry Ford Health Systems and Quicken Loans have offered employees monetary incentives to live in the city of Detroit. These incentives are offered through the Live Midtown and the Detroit Live Downtown programs and could also be seen as a reason why the rental rate is what it is in Detroit. In addition to city’s median income and age showing a link to the JCHS’ explanation for high rental rates, we also know that certain areas in Detroit (such as Midtown and Downtown) are becoming more attractive to people because of the night life, creative outlets, parks and proximity to sporting and entertainment events.

Detroit’s unemployment rate on the decline

June 8, 2015 by drawingdadmin | Leave a comment

From March 2015 to April 2015, the unemployment rate across the state and in the City of Detroit’s decreased (monthly);
The Purchasing Manager’s Index for Southeast Michigan increased from April 2015 to May 2015 (monthly);
Commodity Price Index decreased from April 2015 to May 2015 for Southeast Michigan (monthly);
Standard and Poor’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the Detroit Metropolitan Statistical Area continue to increase.

According to the most recent data provided by the Michigan Department of Technology, Management, and Budget, the unemployment rate for the state of Michigan decreased from 5.7 percent in March to 4.8 percent in April. During this same period, unemployment in the city of Detroit also decreased from 11.7 percent in March to 10.2 percent in April.

From March to April, the number of people employed in the city of Detroit increased by 744, leading to a total of 210,161 people employed in April.

The above chart shows the number of people employed in the auto manufacturing industry in the Detroit Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) (Detroit-Warren-Livonia) from April 2014 to April 2015. From March to April the number of people employed in this industry declined by 1,400, to a total of 105,100. Employment in this industry in the Detroit Metropolitan Statistical Area has been decreasing since February.

According to the most recent data released on Southeast Michigan’s Purchasing Manager’s Index, the PMI for May 2015 was 66.4, an increase of 0.1 points from the prior month. It was also an increase of 6.4 from May of 2014.

According to the index, the average price of single-family dwellings sold in Metro Detroit was $101,530 in March 2015. This was an increase of approximately $3,130 from the average price in February 2015. Since March of 2014, prices have increased by $3,330.

Detroit, St. Clair County have highest confirmed rate of child abuse/neglect victims in the region

May 25, 2015 by drawingdadmin | Leave a comment

From 2009 to 2013, St. Clair County consistently had the highest rate of confirmed victims of child abuse and/or neglect in the seven county region, according to the Michigan League for Public Policy and Kids Count (these organizations obtained their data from the Michigan Department of Human Services). However, for four of those five years, Detroit’s rate of confirmed child abuse/neglect victims far exceeded that of St. Clair County.

All rates discussed in this post are per 1,000 children ages 0-17, unless otherwise noted. These numbers reflect an unduplicated count of children in a given fiscal year where the alleged abuse or neglect was confirmed after an investigation, according to the Michigan Department of Human Services.

The map above shows the rate and number of confirmed victims of child abuse/neglect for the region in fiscal year 2013. Detroit, which is the only Michigan city with such information available through the data source, had a higher rate than the counties (19.2) in 2013. This rate of 19.2 confirmed victims of abuse and/or neglect per 1,000 children ages 0-17 was equivalent to 3,410 total cases.

As already noted, St. Clair County had the highest child abuse/neglect victim rate of the counties in the region in 2013 at 15.8; this was 557 confirmed victims.

In 2013, Oakland County had the lowest child abuse/neglect victim rate in the region. The rate was 6.2, which equaled 1,723 confirmed victims.

The rate of confirmed child abuse/neglect victims for the State of Michigan in 2013 was 14.9 per 1,000 children.

With the exception of 2010, from 2009 to 2013, Detroit had higher rates of confirmed child abuse/neglect victims than the counties in the region. In 2010, St. Clair County had the highest rate at 16.9 per 1,000 children; Detroit’s rate was 15.8 per 1,000 children at that time. Additionally, Detroit experienced its largest rate increase between 2012 and 2013; the rate increased from 16.7 to 19.2 per 1,000 children. Between 2012 and 2013, Macomb, Oakland, and Monroe counties were the only ones that did not experience a rate increase. Between 2012 and 2013, Macomb County’s rate remained the same at 8.2, while Monroe County’s rate decreased from 12.2 to 11.1 and Oakland County’s rate decreased from 6.4 to 6.2.

Macomb and Oakland counties were the only counties in the region that experienced rate decreases between 2009 and 2013.

In the above chart, we look at the rate of confirmed child abuse/neglect victims for children between the ages of 0-5 in the region. Again, we see that Detroit and St. Clair County had the highest rates. In 2013, Detroit’s rate was 32.8, while St. Clair County’s was 28.9 per 1,000 children. In 2009, 2010, and 2012, St. Clair’s rates (17.5, 26.4, 30.6, respectively) were higher than Detroit’s (17, 21.8, 27.3, respectively).

For all the years examined, Oakland County had the lowest confirmed child abuse/neglect rates in the region for children ages 0-5. In 2009, its rate was 8.9 and by 2013, its rate had increased to 10.5. Overall, there was a general trend of rate increases across the region. Detroit had the largest rate increase between 2009 and 2013; its rate increased by 15.8 in that five-year time frame.

Although Macomb County’s rate increased by 2.1 between 2009 and 2010, it is the only county in the region that experienced a consistent downward trend in the confirmed child abuse/neglect victim rate between 2010 and 2013, leaving it only .2 points higher than its 2009 rate. Of the counties examined, this was the closest any county in 2013 was to its rate in 2009.per 1,000 children in 2010. But since 2010 the rate has decreased each year.

NYT: Home-price growth driven by multiple economic factors

May 23, 2015 by drawingdadmin | Leave a comment

A recent graph produced by the New York Times shows that while home prices are bouncing back across the U.S. there are different factors driving those increased prices. For Detroit, the cost of purchasing a home is increasing by the lack of supply while in Grand Rapids price is being driven up because of demand. To see the full economics on the growth of home prices in metropolitan areas in Michigan and across the U.S. click here to see the NYT graph based off of a report by Fitch Ratings.

Drawing Detroit

Answering pertinent questions about Southeastern Michigan with statistics and maps

Tag Archives: Detroit